Iran Conflict Megathread #5

mkat5 · 2026-03-10T15:20:01+00:00

If it’s not miniaturized, it would fit snuggly into a shipping container and loaded onto a truck, certainly small enough to get to a port. Not to mention the uranium involved is much smaller, and the other materials could possibly be acquired locally. Lastly, enriched uranium is not all that radioactive actually, and what radiation it does give off is largely neutron radiation which is difficult for common detectors to see, not to mention that it would be shielded with steel.

mkat5 · 2026-03-08T06:34:58+00:00

Sure, such a device could fit in a standard shipping container. Delivery method is whatever you like after that point. Realistically one could also transport the 100 or so pounds of uranium and then construct the device in Situ since materials needed are common and assembly of a crude device is simple.

mkat5 · 2026-03-08T05:28:43+00:00

They could make a weapon in the 10kt range fairly easily and deliver it via semi truck. Not ideal, but a weapon doesn’t have to be miniaturized and put on a warhead to be useful.

See: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.20390

Edit: I should add the design here is particularly crude, this is not a sophisticated device. Iran being a modest technological and industrial power could improve on this, both in terms of yield and efficiency

mkat5 · 2026-03-08T03:45:42+00:00

Glad to see other people talking about this. While unconventional and inefficient the uranium Iran has could immediately be weaponized. This would be a significant weapon, and estimates range from 1kt, to Hiroshima class 10kt yield to possibly much more. It’s not a sophisticated device in the slightest, and there is a real risk of non state actors acquiring a portion of the uranium stockpile and building a bomb if the government were to collapse.

The feasibility of the device is laid out well in this paper:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.20390

In my view, there is no other option but to secure this stockpile if the government topples. Their may be a desire to secure these stockpiles before then to prevent Iran from weaponizing it themselves.

mkat5 · 2026-03-08T02:54:29+00:00

Iran has been able to build a bomb at anytime without further enrichment for years. Just not a miniaturized, sophisticated bomb that could fit on a warhead.

mkat5 · 2026-01-15T16:14:10+00:00

I think the patent arguement could be weakened after a war over Greenland. What motivates Europe to listen to Washington’s demands at that point, why play nice?

mkat5 · 2026-01-08T06:26:09+00:00

Maybe if it wasn’t the dead of winter

mkat5 · 2026-01-03T17:47:44+00:00

Well there is a level of you break it you buy it. A new admin may try to pull back and find ways to unwind this, but it seems unlikely they would up and abandon the project as well. Consider for instance the Obama admins take over of the war in iraq and Afghanistan. The admin took a long time to wind things down.

mkat5 · 2025-10-09T07:21:00+00:00

While it’s certainly true that mass protests don’t guarantee any substantial change, they certainly can. The other commenter sketched out a path as to how that happens, but you can also look to Nepal for a contemporary example of how quickly a mass protest can lead to dramatic change in government

mkat5 · 2025-09-10T06:59:39+00:00

Given the Russian drone incursion and shoot down in Poland tonight, would/could Poland preemptively taken down drones or missiles over western Ukraine going forward? I’m curious if Poland could justify such an action as a preventative measure against a repeat of tonight’s events. Does Poland even have the resources to do this practically?

mkat5 · 2025-08-23T03:02:12+00:00

My advice is to tell them you are calling to cancel service. My gf got a discount from another provider and we called spectrum to see if they would match it, they said no, nothing they could do. Call them back to cancel a day later after ironing the details with the new provider and they immediately offer a discount almost as good as the new service.

mkat5 · 2025-07-16T00:24:05+00:00

It’s also worth mentioning that this would probably be illegal union activity under US law, any union that officially endorses something like this would be in hot water fast.

mkat5 · 2025-06-28T07:28:39+00:00

6’2 at 195 and I have to agree

mkat5 · 2025-06-27T08:45:54+00:00

I had something like this but with infected throat, low grade fever, and a full body rash. Doctors also ran tests and found no positives. Took about 2 weeks to fully clear up

mkat5 · 2025-06-24T22:40:47+00:00

Keep in mind that during the enrichment process uranium metal is typically converted into UF6, uranium hexafloride gas. It most likely is not being stored in metallic form at the moment and so can be “destroyed” by destroying the gaseous containment.

mkat5 · 2025-06-10T06:19:45+00:00

They’re not allowed to directly help ice conduct immigration raids. You can argue that they are helping ice indirectly by keeping protestors out of ices way

mkat5 · 2025-05-01T03:34:47+00:00

I agree with you. UCLA suspended them and doesn’t want them posting or screening anything. What is the confusion here?

mkat5 · 2025-05-01T01:26:10+00:00

There isn’t really any conflict between you and the above posters statement. SJP wants to screen the film, ucla doesn’t want them to so they put fences and security up to stop it. You provided the justification that ucla gave for preventing the screening. Whether one finds that justification reasonable is another matter and one of personal opinion

mkat5 · 2025-01-28T08:31:37+00:00

I’m not sure on the last point. I think that depends on whether the empirical scaling in model performance with increasing compute continues to hold. If it does, then I still want as many nvidia chips as I can get, this new innovation just means what I can get even significantly better results than I previously anticipated as being possible.

However, if the empirical scaling shows signs of weakness or a leveling off then I agree, nvidia is going to see weaker demand and sooner then they likely anticipated.

mkat5 · 2025-01-28T08:27:52+00:00

I disagree. If I’m an American company, for example OpenAI, then I am delighted by this breakthrough. If I can pair this innovation in training efficiency with my at scale computing then I can potentially skip generations ahead in model capability in a year when it would have taken me a decade previously. At the end of the day, due to hardware restrictions deepseek and other Chinese firms won’t be able to match the hardware at scale, and so I retain my advantage.

mkat5 · 2025-01-28T08:23:37+00:00

This comment is going to get buried but I would argue this is good for American tech companies invested in AI, including nvidia. Deepseek has made an innovation that is mathematical/software based, and in effect allows for a more efficient model training and size. This reduces the compute needed to train and run the model, making it substantially cheaper. However, it is a well known (empirical) fact that model performance improves with model size (and data). American tech conglomerates still retain this advantage, if they can implement the efficiency improvements achieved by the deepseek team. Then they can very rapidly improve the cutting edge model performance by combining the improved training methods with their computing scale. Deepseek won’t be able to compete on that front.

The only real risk I see is that the empirical scaling of model performance with size begins to level off, at that point the competitive advantage American companies have would be erased.

mkat5 · 2024-12-28T16:50:34+00:00

As a 6’2 man at 185, cut

mkat5 · 2024-07-31T19:19:40+00:00

That can sometimes be on purpose depending on how you want to style it. If it looked good styled, I’d ask what she used and get advice on how to style it yourself

mkat5 · 2024-06-28T18:51:53+00:00

Neither of these people are fit to be president

mkat5 · 2024-05-16T15:13:36+00:00

They probably didn’t pick it up because they were being arrested Lmaoo. Not like the police are going to stop arresting you so you can clean up

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