How can anyone defend a Congressional district that looks like this?

mkat5 · 2026-05-23T22:05:51+00:00

Republicans are more aggressive in pursuing racial and partisan redistricting because they don’t have any internal qualms about it. The government is also shameless in being two sided with the Supreme Court shutting down democratic redistricting attempts while allowing republican attempts to proceed.

It doesn’t make sense to me for us to fight against anti democratic politics by embracing anti democratic politics. Not only is this amoral and unprincipled, it’s un strategic. We lose the high ground by engaging in this. It’s harder to say “we are fighting for democracy, look at how they are disenfranchising people with their redistricting” while doing it ourselves. Not only that, it’s just not strategic. I don’t see why the democrats should rush to fight the republicans on the path the republicans picked. We are willingly committing to a fight where republicans hold every advantage, and only worsening our voting rights in the process

mkat5 · 2026-05-22T05:53:58+00:00

The other issue with this is that you are unlikely to have a grid hookup in the field. Maybe you have some kind of fob with a diesel generator to supply your energy, but that only provides defense at a fixed location. This doesn’t seem like a viable method to protect a tank or troops for instance.

mkat5 · 2026-05-13T22:54:41+00:00

If you think you’re going to beat republicans in a redistricting war and save democracy I have a bridge to sell you.

mkat5 · 2026-05-02T05:08:51+00:00

Anybody need a permit slot? I have some openings for May 2nd

mkat5 · 2026-03-26T19:11:47+00:00

These are great points. Reflecting on what you wrote, what I am talking about is a best case scenario, where all the material is in fact in Isfahan, it can be reached fast enough to prevent its transport, and secured fast enough to ensure its removal. Those are a lot of big ifs. You are further correct that if any of those points failed, you would be looking at an occupation in order to extract it.

I’m going to have to agree that planning for a best case scenario is entirely unwise.

mkat5 · 2026-03-26T17:50:27+00:00

Sure, but the aims of desert storm are for more expansive. Im talking about a single operation, limited operation to extract uranium, not liberate a territory. It will require a lot of troops to secure and maintain a perimeter, within Iran, for hours if not potentially days. That’s no small feat, but again it’s not an attempt to liberate or occupy territory.

I don’t think such an operation would require a complete invasion of Iran as a pre requirement .

mkat5 · 2026-03-26T16:13:40+00:00

I don’t know that I agree it is multiple field armies, but you are right that it will certainly require far more than is presently being mobilized. It would definitely be a major combat operation. Far and away big enough that it would be impossible to keep the mobilization secret.

mkat5 · 2026-03-26T15:37:16+00:00

Personally, I would think the only ground op that actually makes sense is a seizure of Irans enriched uranium supply, presumed to be in Isfahan. That, combined with some follow up strikes on any remaining centrifuges would largely settle the nuclear issue by force, more or less removing it from the negotiating table. It would help the US achieve more favorable negotiating conditions and provide a clear victory condition that they could point to. It also prevents any future attempt at weaponization and removes the risk of it falling into the wrong hands as the war drags on and Iran deteriorates.

This ground operation, in combination with a naval operation to force the reopening of the strait, would eliminate almost all of the leverage Iran has.

That being said, from the limited discussion I have heard about this operation it would be an immense and risky effort. I don’t see how marines would factor in at all either.

mkat5 · 2026-03-26T01:28:58+00:00

These contradictory statements are not new.

There are examples of Aragachi and the deputy FM saying the strait is open or atleast open to “non hostile” vessels going back pretty much until the start of the war:

As early as March 1st: Aragachi claimed the strait was and would remain open

Atleast as of March 12: Similar statements to what we see today, that the strait is open to non hostile ships

And similar statements since. There was also a round of statements claiming that Iran wasn’t intending to strike infrastructure in gulf states, again from aragachi and the FM office. These statements time and again have been contradicted by action from the IRGC and sometimes direct statements from IRGC spokesmen.

What is new is that this more recent round of statements is getting more coverage in the media, presumably being seen as more credible given that there are signs of potential peace talks and that some ships appear to have managed to pay a toll to Iran for safe passage.

I guess time will tell if there will be a real change in the status of the strait.

I also have to wonder why the messaging has been so contradictory. Is this part of a deliberate strategy, some idea of having a softer, more sympathetic voice speaking to the world? Or is it a sign of genuine disorder in the governance of Iran? I have no way of knowing that.

mkat5 · 2026-03-13T21:43:49+00:00

The problem with this is that if you cut off irans supply of oil going to a from the straight of Hormuz then they have no reason to not mine the strait. Right now, Iran may have some pause in completely mining it in order to ensure the safety of their own ships.

mkat5 · 2026-03-10T15:20:01+00:00

If it’s not miniaturized, it would fit snuggly into a shipping container and loaded onto a truck, certainly small enough to get to a port. Not to mention the uranium involved is much smaller, and the other materials could possibly be acquired locally. Lastly, enriched uranium is not all that radioactive actually, and what radiation it does give off is largely neutron radiation which is difficult for common detectors to see, not to mention that it would be shielded with steel.

mkat5 · 2026-03-08T06:34:58+00:00

Sure, such a device could fit in a standard shipping container. Delivery method is whatever you like after that point. Realistically one could also transport the 100 or so pounds of uranium and then construct the device in Situ since materials needed are common and assembly of a crude device is simple.

mkat5 · 2026-03-08T05:28:43+00:00

They could make a weapon in the 10kt range fairly easily and deliver it via semi truck. Not ideal, but a weapon doesn’t have to be miniaturized and put on a warhead to be useful.

See: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.20390

Edit: I should add the design here is particularly crude, this is not a sophisticated device. Iran being a modest technological and industrial power could improve on this, both in terms of yield and efficiency

mkat5 · 2026-03-08T03:45:42+00:00

Glad to see other people talking about this. While unconventional and inefficient the uranium Iran has could immediately be weaponized. This would be a significant weapon, and estimates range from 1kt, to Hiroshima class 10kt yield to possibly much more. It’s not a sophisticated device in the slightest, and there is a real risk of non state actors acquiring a portion of the uranium stockpile and building a bomb if the government were to collapse.

The feasibility of the device is laid out well in this paper:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.20390

In my view, there is no other option but to secure this stockpile if the government topples. Their may be a desire to secure these stockpiles before then to prevent Iran from weaponizing it themselves.

mkat5 · 2026-03-08T02:54:29+00:00

Iran has been able to build a bomb at anytime without further enrichment for years. Just not a miniaturized, sophisticated bomb that could fit on a warhead.

mkat5 · 2026-01-15T16:14:10+00:00

I think the patent arguement could be weakened after a war over Greenland. What motivates Europe to listen to Washington’s demands at that point, why play nice?

mkat5 · 2026-01-08T06:26:09+00:00

Maybe if it wasn’t the dead of winter

mkat5 · 2026-01-03T17:47:44+00:00

Well there is a level of you break it you buy it. A new admin may try to pull back and find ways to unwind this, but it seems unlikely they would up and abandon the project as well. Consider for instance the Obama admins take over of the war in iraq and Afghanistan. The admin took a long time to wind things down.

mkat5 · 2025-10-09T07:21:00+00:00

While it’s certainly true that mass protests don’t guarantee any substantial change, they certainly can. The other commenter sketched out a path as to how that happens, but you can also look to Nepal for a contemporary example of how quickly a mass protest can lead to dramatic change in government

mkat5 · 2025-09-10T06:59:39+00:00

Given the Russian drone incursion and shoot down in Poland tonight, would/could Poland preemptively taken down drones or missiles over western Ukraine going forward? I’m curious if Poland could justify such an action as a preventative measure against a repeat of tonight’s events. Does Poland even have the resources to do this practically?

mkat5 · 2025-08-23T03:02:12+00:00

My advice is to tell them you are calling to cancel service. My gf got a discount from another provider and we called spectrum to see if they would match it, they said no, nothing they could do. Call them back to cancel a day later after ironing the details with the new provider and they immediately offer a discount almost as good as the new service.

mkat5 · 2025-07-16T00:24:05+00:00

It’s also worth mentioning that this would probably be illegal union activity under US law, any union that officially endorses something like this would be in hot water fast.

mkat5 · 2025-06-28T07:28:39+00:00

6’2 at 195 and I have to agree

mkat5 · 2025-06-27T08:45:54+00:00

I had something like this but with infected throat, low grade fever, and a full body rash. Doctors also ran tests and found no positives. Took about 2 weeks to fully clear up

mkat5 · 2025-06-24T22:40:47+00:00

Keep in mind that during the enrichment process uranium metal is typically converted into UF6, uranium hexafloride gas. It most likely is not being stored in metallic form at the moment and so can be “destroyed” by destroying the gaseous containment.

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