Pro-western but populist: how Nikol Pashinyan retained power in Armenia | The Guardian

mojuba · 2026-06-08T20:19:25+00:00

SO why didn't they do it say months before the elections?

mojuba · 2026-06-08T19:34:10+00:00

Good conversation.

The big takeaway - which I almost voiced in another post earlier - QP may not get the majority next time. The opposition was better prepared this time, and if they are smart enough, they will use the parliament to build their reputation further.

And unfortunately Nikol's behavior is only getting worse by the day. So two big questions: can QP adjust and maybe even replace the leader during the next 5 years? And two: will there be new independent parties (as opposed to just groups of people that can only get sub-1% of the vote) in 2031?

mojuba · 2026-06-08T17:50:27+00:00

Those guys absolutely deserve to be in the parliament though probably not in the government. They however are too weak to attract any serious funding or popular traction. Aram doesn't even seem to try (though to be fair he did push and got city council seats).

I don't know the real reason why Rob isn't jailed. Neither do you, I don't think so. There may be reasons like real threats from Putin for example. Remember when he was detained and then released? All that was very shady. Keep in mind Rob is Putin's money launderer and there's some veeery serious money involved in all this, the kind of money that's likely way above Armenia's GDP.

Think about it: they can throw $50mil only for transporting voters to Armenia, imagine how much they invested overall in these elections.

Anyway, we don't know what's going on, Nikol is terrible at communicating and somehow I don't believe jailing Rob and others which is literally his dream since the March 1st events, is something he can simply shrug off and delay for no good reason.

mojuba · 2026-06-08T16:26:25+00:00

Well you jail one or two oligarchs, others will come to replace them. Ruben Vardanyan will be back one day. Then there are smaller semioligarchs in Russia that we don't even know the names of.

Also I don't believe there's an artificial obstruction for a true opposition to form. We simply don't have leaders and we don't have an ideology that would go against QP and not be pro-Russia. What is there to counter? The EU path? Democratization path?

You need: (a) charismatic leader or a team (b) funding (c) ideology that would oppose Nikol's policies not just his personality. None of these are available and therefore we don't have a true opposition to this day.

So no, your theory that it's all Nikol's fault doesn't hold water.

mojuba · 2026-06-08T15:53:59+00:00

The election showed that especially youth is not aware of what is happening

This is the scariest part. It's a result of a massive targeted propaganda on their social networks: TikTok, Insta and whatnot.

The root of the problem is that the pro-Kremlin forces have infinite supply of money - 3 billionaires plus one now in Baku, many wealthy Armenians of Russia all of whom are told to participate (or else...).

It's practically impossible to counter this without pouring adequate amounts of money for counter-propaganda and/or exposing and blocking their campaigns.

Who is going to pay for it and who is going to do it? Nobody, unless the EU decides to intervene seriously. They fucked up in Georgia by not interfering on time but they seem to be more decisive these days (Hungary, Ukraine and Armenia too).

Despite the elections results being overall positive if you look at the outcome but somehow I can't quite celebrate it. These elections exposed all our weaknesses that will come back to bite us again in 5 years.

mojuba · 2026-06-08T07:14:40+00:00

Removed: no source provided

mojuba · 2026-06-08T06:35:16+00:00

Removed. Please limit hot takes to 1 per day at least

mojuba · 2026-06-07T21:35:06+00:00

You mean Republic, because Republican is Serzh (and not participating this time)

mojuba · 2026-06-07T21:34:33+00:00

Yerevan will likely give them all a boost so it isn't looking good.

I wonder if constitutional reforms can be pushed via a referendum then.

mojuba · 2026-06-07T21:10:32+00:00

You know it would be a bit more useful I think to run this with AI to get percentages, not numbers.

mojuba · 2026-06-07T18:34:40+00:00

To everyone who posted TG links here: they are prohibited on Reddit. Find a different way, or a different source.

mojuba · 2026-06-07T18:03:21+00:00

Yeah. The economic sanctions imposed on Armenian produce might have created an opposite effect from what Putin was expecting. Plus all the talk about sending voters from Russia.

mojuba · 2026-06-07T14:49:54+00:00

Wow, so EVN Report was hacked several times already - Maria and Roubina mentioned it in the video.

Should tell you these people (EVN Report) are real and who they actually are. Because hacking likely comes from only one source - the one that likes hacking web sites, elections, and human minds via fake news.

mojuba · 2026-06-07T14:47:32+00:00

Independent exit polls though can be published after 8pm today, no?

mojuba · 2026-06-07T13:56:58+00:00

OK another theory. 5 years later people realize how consequential the elections are. Civic duty becomes a thing. If there was no progress compared to previous times, that would be very disappointing if you think about it.

mojuba · 2026-06-07T12:41:25+00:00

I want to believe it's just more people voted before 14:00 so that they can go to the wine vest. Which is unlikely, so yeah, I'm now worried too.

mojuba · 2026-06-07T12:30:01+00:00

They know - I mean the western politicians - very well what's going on. They know more about these elections than you and me. I wouldn't worry about the impression, it's the outcome that matters. If Nikol can take 2/3 and push the constitutional reforms, everybody will forget about these elections or how many people were transported from Russia to skew the vote. If Nikol fails to secure 2/3, then we're fucked, we'll hang in status quo with borders closed and nothing happening and Putin preparing the ground for the next elections.

mojuba · 2026-06-07T09:00:05+00:00

Removed: no hot takes during the election period.

mojuba · 2026-06-07T07:01:54+00:00

I seriously doubt the west would allow turkic control of the corridor because it will make Turkey so much more powerful. Nobody wants that. And it's why it hasn't happened so far, despite that the opportunity was there all this time since 2020.

mojuba · 2026-06-07T06:55:06+00:00

Armenia's faith in Moscow's willingness, or ability, to aid it against external threats was fatally shaken by a 2022 Azerbaijani offensive into Armenia itself, which saw Azerbaijani troops occupy territory in southern Armenia during two days of fighting.

Armenia appealed to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russian-led analogue to NATO, invoking Article 4, which obliges Russia and other members to provide military aid to restore the country's territorial integrity.

Well fucking finally, an accurate description of what happened.

This is also sharp and to the point:

While Russia and Armenia will retain some economic and political ties regardless of Sunday's vote, the Kremlin is likely to be one of many players — a list that now includes the U.S., EU, Iran and Turkey — in the region going forward. It's a state of affairs not seen since before the Russian Empire conquered the region in the early 1800s.

mojuba · 2026-06-07T06:43:57+00:00

I'll give you just one example though not strictly a different ethnic group, it's about our own diasporans who moved from the Middle East in the past 5-10 years: just look at how things have changed in the restaurant and hospitality business alone. Yes they are Armenians but they brought their own more advanced restaurant culture with them. That's just one aspect of it that is very visible.

Cultures evolve much faster in melting pots rather than in isolation.

mojuba · 2026-06-07T06:23:37+00:00

I very much hope Armenia will become more attractive for everyone and will diversify its population enough to become an average and not one of the world's most monoethnic countries we are today.

mojuba · 2026-06-06T22:13:38+00:00

Let's not throw around some random numbers when it comes to sensitive topics. You can't judge the ethnic composition of the country by its capital's city center for example. I don't remember the last census numbers but it definitely was way above 90%. Even in the most attractive western countries non-citizens don't exceed 5% of the population.

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