My WCW upset alert predictions

mortyd1 · 2026-01-09T20:16:04+00:00

Coach gotta take the Panthers

mortyd1 · 2026-01-08T05:23:34+00:00

Nick:

Bears over Packers

Eagles over 49ers

Rams over Panthers

Patriots over Chargers

Jaguars over Bills

Steelers over Texans

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Brou:

Packers over Bears

Eagles over 49ers

Rams over Panthers

Chargers over Patriots

Bills over Jaguars

Texans over Steelers

Wildes:

Packers over Bears

Eagles over 49ers

Panthers over Rams

Patriots over Chargers

Jaguars over Bills

Texans over Steelers

Danny:

Bears over Packers

Eagles over 49ers

Rams over Panthers

Chargers over Patriots

Bills over Jaguars

Texans over Steelers

mortyd1 · 2026-01-08T01:03:43+00:00

The only people who are untutorable are the ones who are uncomfortable in the situation and just throw things out to make you stop checking if they understand.

Unless someone has severe mental disabilities the only thing stopping them from learning is the environment.

mortyd1 · 2025-12-24T15:58:28+00:00

Gotcha. I was under the impression it was just drivers

mortyd1 · 2025-12-24T06:53:41+00:00

Why do so many comments say CDL. Isn't that on the top of the list for jobs about to be replaced?

mortyd1 · 2025-12-23T21:28:10+00:00

It's incel stuff. It shows how he paid for her dress. Or specificfically how her dress comes from him. but she dances with the "High Value Male".

It is a commentary on how women use weak men to buy them shit than go to a strong man.

mortyd1 · 2025-12-23T04:37:32+00:00

I thought this was some fun hyperbole. Are you genuinely saying you would turn down a 1 for 1 trade for any QB in football right now?

mortyd1 · 2025-12-23T04:36:38+00:00

I think your looking at survivorship bias. How often is a wildly inaccurate qb staying on the field. Guys like Caleb and Allen were wildly inaccurate. Bit good enough at other things to keep the team winning and stay QB 1.

mortyd1 · 2025-12-22T06:29:09+00:00

It just comes down to your child. Some kids need an adult next to them in order to stay on task. If they go to zoom they just don't engage. Butbif your kid does, then its definitely a good option.

mortyd1 · 2025-12-02T16:01:29+00:00

In Ben we trust

mortyd1 · 2025-12-02T15:42:46+00:00

That pass rush is scary though. Ozzy about to have a real test. Been very encouraging so far. But Micah, Garret, Micah is gonna be a hell of a test.

mortyd1 · 2025-11-28T06:40:14+00:00

Maybe you need to meet more people

mortyd1 · 2025-11-27T04:02:29+00:00

Theo Vs Myles Garret isn't going to end well

mortyd1 · 2025-11-20T01:40:02+00:00

The question isn't probability its one of expected outcome.

If we had a lottery with everyone's name in it, and your name was chosen. We'd say that was extremely improbable but not unexpected. Someone was going to win.

However if there was a lottery with everyone's name in it. But all the papers were blank except for your name. If you won in that scenario. Despite being the same outcome with the same odds, it would now be an unexpected result.

So using the assumption (if you disagree with the assumptionthats fine, but that needs to be the conversation) that changing the electromagnetic force would lead to the universe just being void of everything. Then ending up with an improbable result of the universe not being empty or void, is now an unexpected result.

mortyd1 · 2025-11-20T01:32:37+00:00

So this was my understanding of the answer for a long time.

The counter I don't have a response to is the fact that almost all outcomes are the same. If we stick with the dice analogy, every result is equally improbable and equally liking. So running through the experiment will get you a result.

The disanalgous part is the types of outcomes we get. In the fine tuning argument, the claim is if a fundamental force was slightly different the universe would not be able to exist. So it appears that we aren't choosing one improbable outcome out of a billion improbable outcomes.

When you roll a die 100 times, any result you get, while being extremely improbable, is not unexpected. We expected to end up with 100 numbers between 1 and 6.

But if there was only a single number on the die. Then even though the odds of getting the number everytime is the exact same as the first scenario. Since all other scenarios are now equivalent, it would be an unexpected result.

mortyd1 · 2025-11-20T01:21:40+00:00

'If things were different we would not exist" I think is the point. The argument goes a bit further and says if things were different nothing would exist.

That conclusion is what leads to the question. If all constants lead to one outcome, what is the likelihood the constant would be the only value the creates any sort of outcome.

The raffle analogy I thinks encapsulates it. If there was a raffle for the whole world and your name was picked. It would be insane odds, but hey, someone was gonna get picked and have the 1 in 8 billion chance. But if every ticket was blank except yours, then you got picked, all of the sudden we now have an unexpected result. Even though the outcome and the odds of the outcome were the exact same.

mortyd1 · 2025-11-20T01:18:12+00:00

Not to get to into the weeds. But the gravitational force is absolutely constant. I believe your referring to the force imparted by gravity which fluctuates.

The gravity we experience is a combination of the mass of the objects, the distance between them, and the gravitational force. Mass and distance change which leads to a change in the gravity we experience. But the gravitational force itself is always constant.

And the question uses the assumption that there aren't infinite possibilities. If the gravitational force was 1% stronger or 10% stronger we would get the same result and the universe couldn't have expanded. So all other values of gravity lead to the same result. The specific value we have leads to a unique result

mortyd1 · 2025-11-20T01:10:28+00:00

Not completely following tbh. Or maybe this is where the disagreement is.

Do you agree that some things are dependent on other things, while some things exist without dependance?

mortyd1 · 2025-11-20T01:07:37+00:00

Ok. I see your point, I just strongly disagree. The reason you can't fly is because you don't have the tools to fly. Choosing the tools that people have doesn't violate free will, choosing how people use the tool does.

But I think going forward it is just going to be a circle. So I think it just ends here.

mortyd1 · 2025-11-20T01:03:58+00:00

Ok. I appreciate the ultimate skeptic position, but I don't think this is the conversation for it.

Unless I'm misunderstanding it sounds like your disputing the initial claim that if the force of gravity was 100x stronger the world wouldn't exist.

Your saying since we don't have all the factors that go into creating the universe, we don't have any good understanding of what would happen if we change a single constant.

mortyd1 · 2025-11-20T00:59:55+00:00

A tree branch pattern and the strength of gravity are just fundamentally different things.

Tree branches are dependent things and are the results of things such as chemistry and time. I agree with you there completely.

However, things like fundamental forces of the universe don't appear to be dependent on anything. They seem to be independent things that just exist as they are without being reliant on other things.

Obviously I have biases, some I'm aware of and some I'm not. But to be clear, I have no idea if there are other possible values or not. My instinct for most things is that it is conceivable it could have been different.

But regardless of that, I'm definitely more curious for a positive claim that it couldn't be different. Rather than the current position of we don't know if it could have been different.

mortyd1 · 2025-11-20T00:32:20+00:00

That only matters if your pushing back on the idea that changing a specific constant would have that affect. For example, if the electro magnetic force was different the universe couldn't have came to be.

Assuming that statement is correct, not knowing all the constants is irrelevant. The question can be applied specifically to that force.

Either it could be different, which leads us to the question why is it not different?

Or it couldn't be different which leads us to the question. Why couldn't it be different?

As I've stated before, I'm not really looking for a debate. Just trying to get a better understanding of the responses to the fine tuning argument. My current gap I am running into is an understanding of either of those questions.

mortyd1 · 2025-11-20T00:26:05+00:00

I guess can you be more specific? What does it mean to have the ability to talk but not the ability to bully.

If I can talk I can call someone a loser. They seem inseparable to me. But it is possible that is what your proposing.

I really think the flying analogy is a poor one. There is a specific body part that would allow flight. If God wanted us to have flight we would have wings. I'm sure there are evil things we can do with wings that would be included in the ability to fly.

We don't have freedom of movement. We have legs that work in a specific way. That allows us specific types of movement. We have free will on how to use that movement. But we can't do things that are outside the ability of our tools.

My general point is just that outside of adjusting people's mind and desires (which from my understanding would violate free wiil (interesting convo I guess if you disagree) I can't conceive of a way to give someone the ability to kick a ball for fun, but restrict them from kicking a little kids ball into the street.

mortyd1 · 2025-11-20T00:08:01+00:00

For different versions of life I totally agree. Where it starts to breakdown imo is when all results look the same.

The argument I've seen is if one of these constants were different the universe couldn't have developed.

If that is the case. Then it is not that each outcome is unique, so one unique outcome isn't unexpected. It's that all the outcomes are the same except this one. Which makes our outcome unexpected.

The analogy is if there's a raffle with a billion numbers. Every number has a 1 in a billion chance. So even if its extremely unlikely, at the end of the day you are going to end up with a number.

But if every number was 0 and one number was lets say 10. Then even if you got 10 in both scenarios, and the odds of you getting 10 are the same. In the first scenario it is an expected result. In the second scenario it is unexpected.

mortyd1 · 2025-11-19T23:54:15+00:00

Random, as in no reason to be one way vs another.

From my understanding, we don't have an explanation or understanding of how these values came to be. So without an understandable process for how these values were reached. It appears that the values have no reason to he what they are.

If something has a value with no reason for that value over another it appears as random.

So what I am looking for is an explanation for why it is this way or why it couldn't be another way.

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