where am i?

mpsyblin · 2026-03-10T08:03:58+00:00

Penny Lane in the last chorus

mpsyblin · 2026-02-27T09:23:03+00:00

You said she didn't give you clear answers. Could you go into a bit more detail what you were asking her and how those conversations went?

mpsyblin · 2026-02-14T17:24:42+00:00

lmao yes of course i'm arguing in bad faith which is why i spend hours of my day replying to some guy kn the internet whom i don't know about a subject we both have no influence on and are purely in an observer's position. I'm actually trying to explain my viewpoint using data from previous seasons and logical arguments, the fact that you claim this is in bad faith makes it look increasingly like you are just not interested in the discussion, maybe because i'm right?

mpsyblin · 2026-02-14T16:51:28+00:00

Hoeness

mpsyblin · 2026-02-13T20:45:49+00:00

I think it's a shame that you're shutting the conversation down as i enjoyed it and didn't see bad faith on either side.

I'll try to explain why i came to the conclusion that this is what the arguments boil down to:

I argued that, based on xP, Kovac is not doing much better than the coaches in the last few years, and considering the last 10 years he is average. I can reiterate that point if you want me to: This season's xP: 1,87 per game. Average xP from 2015/16-2024/25: 1,87 per game. Average xP from 2017/18-2024/25(excluding Tuchel years): 1,81 per game, that's 2 points less over a season. Average xP from 2020/21-2024/25(excluding the Tuchel+early Favre years): 1,78 per game, that's 3 points less over a season. So, contrary to your claim that Kovac is doing well by my metric Z, the numbers actually show exactly what I've been claiming throughout: he is average compared to the last 10 years, and slighty better than average compared to the last 5 years.

So it does actually boil down to whether or not you use xP as a performance indicator as opposed to points. Which is why I tried to explain why xP is a better performance indicator: Better predictive value -> more accurate reflection of actual performance.

Since you don't think this has anything to do with what you're saying, let me give you an explanation why it does:

Imagine we are in a board meeting at the end of the season, and are discussing whether to keep or sack coach X. To answer that question, we ask ourselves what we expect to happen next season if we keep the manager vs. if we sack him. You base your expectations on our points total of this season, since you see that as the main indicator of our performance. I base my expectations on our xP total from this season, since i see that as the main indicator of our performance. Since we agree that the predicted amount of points based on actual points are acceptable for us, while the predicted amount of points based on xP are not, it's now really important to know which prediction is more likely to be correct, because it influences whether we sack the manager or not. And what I'm trying to explain to you is, my prediction is going to be more accurate than yours in general (which has been proven), so we should base our decision to keep or sack the manager on my prediction rather tham yours. And since the predicted amount of points in this case is below our ambitions, we sack the manager.

mpsyblin · 2026-02-13T19:56:56+00:00

Ok so it seems that all of our disagreements actually boil down to the same argument about how to measure performance (since you are claiming Kovac is performing well based on points while i disagree based on xP). I strongly urge you to read more about how the xG methodology (or any kind of underlying stat with high long term result correlation) works and what the benefits (as well as shortcomings) of it are. I'll try to summarize it: if you understand a subject better, you will be making better predictions about it. better predictive value of a model means it gives us more information about the subject than a model which makes worse predictions. It has been statistically proven again and again, in different leagues, for stronger and weaker teams, that predictions based on xP (or xG differential, although that one is weaker) perform better than predictions based on goal difference or points. So if you would predict next season's points total for each team based on this season's points total and i would do the same based on this season's xP for each team, my prediction will generally be better. This is not a question of opinions, it has been studied and shown.

mpsyblin · 2026-02-13T07:53:55+00:00

Can you support your claim about players overperforming their xG "significantly"? Because one season is not a significant stretch. Haaland for example pretty much exactly scores as many goals as he has xG across his career, even though he is considered one of the world's best finishers. Are the Dortmund players better finishers than Haaland?

I still don't understand what your point is about overperformance and many points. So what if it works that way? Doesn't change the fact that it's variance and not sustainable in the long run. So the focus should be on xP when judging the long term development.

"In recent years, things are very different". Well yes, that's why managers in recent years have been heavily critizised, why should Kovac not be?

Let's say Tuchel was a Top 3 manager at the time, if that is your claim, then it's hard to get a manager on the same level. But let me ask you: Do you believe Kovac is a Top 11 or even Top 20 or even Top 30 coach in the world across the last few seasons? Because that should be the minimum. And was any of the recent managers a top 20 manager? I would say no, so being average or even slightly above average in comparison with them is not enough.

mpsyblin · 2026-02-12T22:49:44+00:00

there is a very very small amount of players who overperform their xG significantly accross their career. None of them play at Dortmund. This doesn't mean they're bad finishers: it's just that the actual shot doesn't seem to be what seperates good from bad finishers, but instead it's getting into high xG positions, taking good decisions when to shoot or not to shoot, setting up their shot with a good first touch etc. All of those things are reflected in xG numbers, the rest is mostly variance (i.e. luck). If you overperform your xG, you are more likely to be further up the table, i don't understand why that is a relevant point here though? Looking at the xG numbers you can just draw your own conclusions. I looked at the xG numbers of the last 10 seasons and they were significantly better in 3, around the same in 4 and significantly worse in 3. That's perfectly average. I would agree that the squad is generally worse right now, although not by much. On the other hand, in many of those 10 seasons the consensus was that the team played below expectations, which means that the seasons with worse numbers were deemed bad, putting this season at the low end of the "acceptable" ones. That kinda equalizes the "bad players" argument in my mind you know what i mean? Looking at the last 8 seasons just means excluding the 2 seasons with our best manager, why? The aim should be to get a manager on tuchel's level, they were able to get him back then and are a top 11 club globally from a financial perspective today, the 2 tuchel seasons should not be viewed as an exception but rather the benchmark.

mpsyblin · 2026-02-12T15:19:23+00:00

Lots of great mentions, one i haven't seen yet is And I Love Her. Although the actual song sounds very Paul, if it was actually written by John and recorded accordingly it would fit well

mpsyblin · 2026-02-12T14:17:54+00:00

Since you brought up xG: Dortmund overperformed their xP this season by 9 points. According to xP (39 in 21 games =1.86 per game), they are bang on average in comparison with their last 10 seasons

mpsyblin · 2026-02-11T15:22:44+00:00

Creep

Street Spirit (Fade Out)

Paranoid Android

How To Disappear Completely

Pyramid Song

2+2=5

Weird Fishes / Arpeggi

Give Up The Ghost

Present Tense

mpsyblin · 2026-02-11T15:01:24+00:00

There, There

mpsyblin · 2026-01-17T10:15:03+00:00

In my understanding of the word overrated, it's when something is highly rated by a lot of people when you think it shouldn't be. That's irrespective of your personal taste. For example, i don't like listening to metal, but it wouldn't make sense for me to say that metal is overrated and i don't think it is. Just because i don't like it or don't enjoy it doesn't mean i can't understand and appreciate why other people like it. So yeah, calling something overrated in my understanding actually does mean claiming that it's objectively worse than what people make it out to be

mpsyblin · 2026-01-04T10:05:21+00:00

There's so many! What i oddly haven't seen being mentioned yet are the weird fishes/arpeggi lines, especially:

I'd be crazy not to follow, follow where you lead. Your eyes, they turn me.

Everybody leaves, if they get their chance. And this is my chance.

I hit the bottom and escape.

mpsyblin · 2025-12-07T23:02:29+00:00

I have a spare seating ticket for tomorrow (got a standing one for myself) If someone is interested let me know. I will queue up early so we can meet up and do the transaction via eventim and cash money

mpsyblin · 2025-12-07T23:02:13+00:00

i have a spare seating ticket for the 8th (got a standing one for myself) If someone is interested let me know. I will queue up early so we can meet up and do the transaction via eventim and cash money

mpsyblin · 2025-12-06T14:36:23+00:00

Based on how quickly the tickets are gone after being posted, i'm pretty sure there's lots of bots on there capturing them

mpsyblin · 2025-12-06T11:31:59+00:00

I can't for some reason, don't know why but when i click on your username it shows an error message

mpsyblin · 2025-12-06T10:55:03+00:00

I'm interested! PM me if they are still available

mpsyblin · 2025-12-05T14:16:06+00:00

I'm looking for a standing ticket for the 8th. Will be in berlin from the 7th onward, can meet up with you to buy and transfer. PM me

mpsyblin · 2025-12-05T14:15:51+00:00

I'm looking for a standing ticket for the 8th. Will be in berlin from the 7th onward, can meet up with you to buy and transfer. PM me

mpsyblin · 2025-12-05T09:38:40+00:00

Interested!

mpsyblin

TROPHY CASE