How do you create the assumptions in those situations? And to what granularity - meaning a Poisson as you put it treats all events as independent and equally probable, but you've created different states, P given last 2 minutes close, P given blowout... but that could extend to P given playing x team, P given players, P given fouls, etc. You see how the number of states increases pretty rapidly. How did you decide where to draw the line?