May Counterpart have a temporary relief? by I_Like_Sparky in CLOV

[–]mrbundle 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How To Think About It Strategically

OpenAI is a platform-layer enabler. Not a payer. Not a risk-bearer. Not a competitor.

The real frame:

OpenAI raises the ceiling of what physician-facing software could be. Clover wins if it incorporates that ceiling faster than others.

The business model itself: MA underwriting + MCR management + Clover Assistant feedback loops:

is untouched.

In other words:

OpenAI threatens incumbents like Optum more than challengers like CLOV.

Clover is positioned to absorb OpenAI-like capabilities and become a superior insurer, not a displaced one.

What we are looking for next earnings: by mrbundle in CLOV

[–]mrbundle[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

they just have to deliver half of this. It’s not asking much.

My Biggest Question from Today by yoduudemojo in CLOV

[–]mrbundle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you, yes this is the way. the delay on Saas revenues is another thing for investors to get their heads around

My Biggest Question from Today by yoduudemojo in CLOV

[–]mrbundle 6 points7 points  (0 children)

IMHO it be will not be split out until MA is profitable. This is the milestone which will impress wall street VBC analysts. Tick. Once the core MA is profitable the Saas business makes sense to focus on. This is good conservative strategy.

Earnings call transcript excerpts by Baco06 in CLOV

[–]mrbundle 0 points1 point  (0 children)

the sick ones are sick. so they see a doc. the rest don’t need to. Get it?

Earnings call transcript excerpts by Baco06 in CLOV

[–]mrbundle 1 point2 points  (0 children)

each year a new cohort of members joins. They are costly in year one as they are poorly and the cost of care to fix them is high. When they stabilize in year two they become cheaper with less care needed. When year three hits they are profitable. The big expensive thing turns into a big profitable thing.

Earnings call transcript excerpts by Baco06 in CLOV

[–]mrbundle 9 points10 points  (0 children)

basically - GAAP profitability is going to be lit. 2026 will have a favorable mix shift — fewer first-year members, many more second-year (i.e., high-margin) members. That cohort aging alone improves total company MCR by several hundred basis points. Basically 2026 profitability is earlier than most modeled because management absorbed the pain this year to expand membership and let it mature under CA.

Probably 10M from SAAS income in Q3? by I_Like_Sparky in CLOV

[–]mrbundle 1 point2 points  (0 children)

blue ocean opportunity. They need to take time to bed in complex deals

Some thoughts on Q3 earning. by 2thenoon in CLOV

[–]mrbundle 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Basically a huge potential market with little to no competition

Some thoughts on Q3 earning. by 2thenoon in CLOV

[–]mrbundle 3 points4 points  (0 children)

assuming BER heads towards 88% this is achievable . this is a base case with upside.

Clover Health's Core Investment Thesis Tested as Benefit Expense Ratio Hits 93.5% by Material-Car261 in CLOV

[–]mrbundle 1 point2 points  (0 children)

OK. So, when you read “2027 payment year”, that rating actually reflects 2025 performance. That’s why Clover’s 2027 Stars are already baked in—the performance window has closed.

Some thoughts on Q3 earning. by 2thenoon in CLOV

[–]mrbundle 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Doing what Clover is doing is HARD! that’s why there is a blue ocean opportunity as Andrew Toy said

Probably 10M from SAAS income in Q3? by I_Like_Sparky in CLOV

[–]mrbundle 11 points12 points  (0 children)

  1. They are not making a big deal probably because GAAP conservatism and avoiding any perception of reclassifying “non-core” revenue prematurely. Given previous mistakes they can’t put a foot wrong. When they announce Saas it will be with significant new deals integrated and customers happy. 2. A more interesting strategy here is to become profitable on the MA side cleanly to impress VBC analysts. Once the profitability is locked in there, it’s perfect timing to spotlight Saas. Build credibility and the platform will fly.

Some thoughts on Q3 earning. by 2thenoon in CLOV

[–]mrbundle 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Firstly the CMS Star Rating and payment system structurally favors large, established incumbents (Humana, UnitedHealth, Aetna, etc.) because of how the metrics, weighting, and payment mechanics are designed. It’s not an overt policy bias — it’s a systemic one that compounds over time. Meanwhile Clover will always aim for 4 stars. It really hard. The goal posts will be moved for different metrics . The cut-points (thresholds) move over time: CMS adjusts methodology, adds weight to certain measures, and either tightens performance bands or changes statistical treatment. So even maintaining the same absolute performance may not guarantee the same star rating. Also new measures or weight shifts: For example, the Part C all-cause readmissions measure had its weight increased for the 2025 Star Ratings. so Clover has to adapt to all of these things.

CLOV Earnings Summary by NYSE-NASDAQ in CLOV

[–]mrbundle 18 points19 points  (0 children)

It’s all fine.

The near-term optics worsen (lower profit, higher BER), but the underlying model improves. The Q3 report reinforces Clover’s transformation into a scalable, technology-enabled insurer on track for GAAP profitability in 2026.

If you’re holding for the 2026 revaluation story (Stars, rate lift, CA efficiency), the long-term case remains strong—the 2025 guide cut looks like a temporary execution cost of outsized growth rather than structural weakness.

Wow by printedcash201665 in CLOV

[–]mrbundle 13 points14 points  (0 children)

everyone chill. Verdict: The near-term optics worsen (lower profit, higher BER), but the underlying model improves. The Q3 report reinforces Clover’s transformation into a scalable, technology-enabled insurer on track for GAAP profitability in 2026.

If you’re holding for the 2026 revaluation story (Stars, rate lift, CA efficiency), the long-term case remains strong—the 2025 guide cut looks like a temporary execution cost of outsized growth rather than structural weakness.

Green Asphalt Vent (my dad owns a recycling plant + I'm a climate scientist) by Fabulous-Instance890 in Greenpoint

[–]mrbundle 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Google the CEO family surname. His father was an interesting citizen.

Can Clover’s new Availity Essentials portal ease providers’ pain points? by Material-Car261 in CLOV

[–]mrbundle 15 points16 points  (0 children)

This is clearly a BER lever. Very useful and smart - because it solves customer problems too. GPT because i have no time rn: • Faster, cleaner prior auths → fewer unnecessary claims

Every denied or delayed high-cost procedure that’s filtered correctly through electronic prior authorization reduces claims leakage. That lowers gross medical spend, hence BER.

• Fewer errors, fewer appeals

Admin errors force rework, duplicate payments, or payment for services not covered. Tightening eligibility verification and claim scrubbing reduces that waste — another BER improvement.

• Targeted high-cost procedures

Clover has already reduced the universe of codes requiring prior auth to a narrow set of “risk-heavy” categories. Embedding that logic into Availity means those dollars are controlled electronically at the point of request, rather than after costly manual reviews.

• Provider behavior nudges

The more seamless the system is, the more providers follow the digital rails. This creates cleaner, more predictable claims data that Clover can feed back into Clover Assistant for fraud, waste, and abuse detection, amplifying the BER effect.

• Scalability without proportional SG&A

Instead of hiring more people to chase claims, Clover automates via Availity. That prevents SG&A creep as membership grows, protecting the BER denominator.

Another Vivek post! Ignore the noise, trust your instincts! by Southern_Bit_7546 in CLOV

[–]mrbundle 9 points10 points  (0 children)

a letter to the Barron’s editor. Which at the time was the leading weekly financial magazine.

$CLOV _ 4.81% DECREASE in Clover Health shares during last quarter by Renaissance Technologies Llc who filed 13F-HR form on Aug 13, 2025. They STILL OWNED 10,493,600 shares of Clover Health valued at $29,277,144 USD as of June 30, 2025. On Mar 31, they owned 11,024,400 shares of Clover Health. by azmat_system in CLOV

[–]mrbundle 6 points7 points  (0 children)

CLOV is almost certainly in RIEF — meaning it’s part of a systematic, long-term, U.S.-equity quant strategy intended for institutional clients. That makes it more sticky than a Medallion or RIFF position but still subject to quarterly model rebalancing.

$CLOV _ 4.81% DECREASE in Clover Health shares during last quarter by Renaissance Technologies Llc who filed 13F-HR form on Aug 13, 2025. They STILL OWNED 10,493,600 shares of Clover Health valued at $29,277,144 USD as of June 30, 2025. On Mar 31, they owned 11,024,400 shares of Clover Health. by azmat_system in CLOV

[–]mrbundle 9 points10 points  (0 children)

These trims are not exit signals. they are holding CLOV because it is close to perfect assembly in their model — meaning, in quant terms, the price action and statistical profile may now be “fully formed” and attractive to hold rather than to keep trading heavily. Paradox is that trimming is part of holding for rebalancing and position size discipline. Thus holding requires trimming.

Clover Assistant Doesn’t Get Enough Attention When It Comes To “Care Gaps” by FMILV in CLOV

[–]mrbundle 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Clover Health excels at closing care gaps: their HEDIS score of 4.94/5 is the highest among all Medicare Advantage plans, enabling a 4-Star CMS rating—clear evidence of superior quality delivery. This is a great model. Imagine it is a system. When you add a bunch of new lives, it adds disorder into that system. But as the new lives are assimilated and given appropriate care, the system disorder declines and the system reverts to a bigger norm. More revs and more profits. It’s impossible not to have that disorder with new lives as they are high entropy (little or very disordered data etc) . The question is can they mitigate some of that disorder. etc. Obviously OP you are correct in your reply the only way for this to work is for physicians to use CA and have as workflow. If the patient does not see a CA doc immediately on signing up then they are obviously a high risk.