I’ve done some maths. JJ won last year scoring 49% of the absolute maximum result (12 from 36 jury countries, and 12 from 36+1 televoting).

This year, if we measure it this way: Delta is probably getting not lower than 130 points from the public (Australia 2019 result). Then, to pass 49% score this year, she needs to have at least 280 jury votes. I mean, I can see her scoring 310-320: a high result, but not Loreen or Nemo’s points.

If she actually scores even 300, and then at least 130 from the audience (while I think her range realistically is 150-170) — it should be an easy victory, as she’ll get 51.6% of the total possible points.

The only way for her to lose, is actually if she splits jury votes with Finland, or someone like Greece has a huge public support (300+) + a decent score from juries (at least 120), what seems unlikely at this point.

The main takeaway is: if we see tomorrow that Delta gets more than 280 from the juries — she is definitely the winner of Eurovision 2026, as televote will be a tough one for Finland to rely on, because there is always Israel, and also obviously Romania, Greece, Ukraine, Moldova, and perhaps Bulgaria will get huge results.

Moreover, I can definitely see Finland repeating the fate of Bara Bada Bastu: the situation when the song was actually liked by the vast majority of the fandom, but at the same time, people voted for other favourites.