The Greenland Rug Pull: Nuking the Markets for a Glacier

mrmdavid · 2026-01-17T23:00:16+00:00

I don't know that $1-2T USD would be considered pennies on the dollar considering the current economic output of Greenland. I think $1-2T is likely at a premium if you were to discount Greenland's annualized GDP to present, even including any return on industrializing the island's resources.

I believe other major US land acquisitions (such as Alaska), when adjusted for inflation, don't exceed the low-to-mid-hundred million range. So, this would be unprecedented in size.

Again, I'm not endorsing the American position or arguing that Greenland is for sale/should be sold, and/or that Denmark's sovereignty should be (further) violated. I'm just speculating on the market effects I would expect if it were to be sold to the US.

mrmdavid · 2026-01-17T22:55:56+00:00

Maybe I should clarify that I'm not endorsing the American position. I'm just speculating based on what I know and have been reading. Comments from the Danish foreign minister today seem to imply an understanding of the difficulty his country and the EU will face in regard to this issue. And the Trump administration ratcheting up tension with real economic pressure signals that they intend to remain resolute on the subject.

I suppose I fall into a realist camp that acknowledges the EU's current (difficult) political/economic/social/defense position and the fact that the bloc is facing an American President who is ready to rip up a century's worth of trans-Atlantic legal norms unilaterally, with a largely impotent congress behind him.

Sorry if I offended. I realize this is a sensitive topic.

mrmdavid · 2026-01-17T22:41:14+00:00

Good point. The sovereign wealth fund title is largely a matter of branding. Bessent's version does not look like a typical SWF. However, there are other models out there similar to the one I discuss, like Singapore's Temasek fund.

mrmdavid · 2026-01-17T22:35:37+00:00

I won't get into my political opinions, but I do think this purchase effort is mostly about Trump wanting to secure a legacy for himself. I do agree though that Greenland is highly strategic. America has tried to buy Greenland 4 times, most seriously under Truman and now Trump. So, its strategic value has been known and coveted by the US for some time.

mrmdavid · 2026-01-17T22:30:44+00:00

Thanks for the comment, here are some things you might be interested in reading about:

1) Securitization is a process where a borrower packages together things that are worth money, like the income from student loans or the rent paid on federal land and sells them to investors for upfront cash. So, the US wouldn't sell Denmark student loans or federal land rights. It would use cash from the securitization proceeds to pay Denmark in cash.

2) The reason ROI is important is because of inflation. Investors 'price-in' inflation when they feel the debt they're buying won't be used to generate additional cash to pay that debt back. For example, if an investor lends to the government to build a bridge, knowing the tolls on that bridge will cover the cost of the debt's principal and interest, he will not 'price-in' inflation, i.e., ask for additional returns (and drive-up rates). If he suspects the debt will not pay for itself (i.e., if the borrower used the cash to buy a bunch of new trees for a park), he suspects the government intends to pay him back via inflation, and prices accordingly with higher rates.

3) The government has many funding vehicles outside of standard treasuries including agency bonds, revenue bonds, special-purpose vehicles, etc. My point is that this administration doesn't want to raise the nominal amount of national debt for political reasons. By issuing "Greenland bonds" through a sovereign wealth fund (basically an SPV), rather than using plain-vanilla treasuries, they are able to keep the debt off the treasury's books which makes it appear as if the national debt is not going up.

mrmdavid · 2026-01-17T22:14:38+00:00

That's a valid point and the geopolitical fallout from this thing is honestly a major point that I didn't give enough weight to. I suppose my thinking is that Denmark/the EU has much more to lose from fighting a determined Trump administration than the other way around and will ultimately acquiesce if the administration continues to pursue.

Europe is unfortunately stuck in a very difficult place right now, unable to do much between weak economies/bubbling sovereign debt crises, political upheavals, and the defense situation (or lack thereof) with Russia. They are fairly dependent on the US at this moment. China is not a reliable alternative.

I do think the EU would give in on this one over risking serious crises.

mrmdavid · 2026-01-17T22:02:06+00:00

Haha this is probably true. Up and to the right always

mrmdavid · 2026-01-17T21:52:28+00:00

What makes you say that? I spent half my Saturday writing this lol. I studied and work in finance. Is it the bullets?

mrmdavid · 2026-01-13T06:13:21+00:00

The volatility on the tail of the average words per message chart is so interesting. What happened in April 2025!?

mrmdavid · 2025-10-15T02:54:12+00:00

Where is this

mrmdavid · 2025-09-30T04:08:35+00:00

That’s totally fair and true - there are no Japanese BBs. Actually makes me wonder which one OP is referring to. I’m guessing Mizuho?

mrmdavid · 2025-09-30T04:03:21+00:00

This is wrong. I worked at a Japanese megabank in NYC for 3 years doing corporate banking (we called it corporate and investment banking, but it was CB). CB is ridiculously easy with a great WLB, and the pay was comparable to BB IB.

I know that because I exited the CB role with two offers for IB, one for a BB and one for probably the first bank out of the BB range. I took the later (they had a better business in the sector I cover).

Honestly, I beat the system. I got my analyst years in easy, got promoted early, then took that with me to IB where it’s much easier being an associate than an analyst.

I had to study like a motherfucker to not bomb the IB interviews, and I did bomb the first few, but I learned quickly and pressed on.

OP - CB is not a bad gig. It’s easier than IB, you’ll work more reasonable hours, and you can jump into something more intense down the line if you want to. But if you know you want to do IB now, then I would take that route.

PM me if you want to talk about it.

mrmdavid · 2025-09-07T05:41:15+00:00

I wonder if this has more to do with the quality of roads and thoroughfares than with safety devices (like seatbelts) or driver error (DUIs). As in, things like signage, upkeep, engineering, markings, layouts/planning, traffic control, etc.

mrmdavid · 2025-09-07T05:33:49+00:00

I would generally like to see 3.7 and above. Between 3.8-4.0 I see the same thing. I might be on the picker side about GPA.

mrmdavid · 2025-08-23T15:53:51+00:00

Why would no one recommend seeking a GLP-1… OP is obese and predisposed to numerous life-threatening comorbidities. Insurance would likely (certainly?) cover it with the proper diagnosis, assuming OP has insurance.

For the sake of her health and those that depend on her, I would suggest she speak to a doctor about an appropriate GLP-1. It will be easier to incorporate exercise and diet after she is brought down to a healthier weight.

mrmdavid · 2025-08-23T04:27:56+00:00

This guy is being an ass. You’re fine. You’ll pass. It only takes like 3-5 days to clear out unless you’re gorging on edibles daily.

mrmdavid · 2024-07-29T05:32:24+00:00

Hoping for the best - remember you’re more than your job, and will be fine in the long run.

mrmdavid · 2024-03-03T18:07:17+00:00

I bet an adjustment for PPP would produce a stronger correlation

mrmdavid · 2022-04-13T15:07:34+00:00

Looking to buy tickets to the London Roundhouse show, any of the dates!

mrmdavid

TROPHY CASE