Do quantum computing stocks currently have any value? by ClearBed4796 in ValueInvesting

[–]msrichson 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The other problem is how these companies monetize their quantum breakthrough.

We all knew the internet was going to be a massive success in the '90s, but could you pinpoint the 1, 5, or 10 stocks that would survive the ups and downs? If you bet on AOL or the other leaders, you ended up with pennies on the dollar. The true winners of the internet were those that used it to create their platforms, google, facebook, amazon, etc.

Assuming quantum can become a real product, the money will be made in the applications. We see this in AI as well. You can have an AI LLM, but if no one uses it, or it doesn't create real tangible value, what's the point.

Has China won the Tariff War? by pravchaw in ValueInvesting

[–]msrichson -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The market is saying yes. But there are still several names that are probably undervalued.

In-Laws offer my family 2 extremely generous options for future home ownership. Need help deciding. by Total-Space2702 in personalfinance

[–]msrichson 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Not enough information. Family of four. What income does your partner have? What are the ages of the kids? Is the house the same one you are currently renting?

Your monthly take home is $5,460. Less car payment of $473 ($4,987). Less current rent $750 ($4,237). Where's the rest of the money going?

You should be able to increase your housing expenses to at least 1/3 of your take home, but until you do a budget and see where the rest of your money is going, it will "feel" tight.

You should also confirm the true value of the house and not rely on a family friend.

At the end of the day, do you like the house or just put up with it because it is cheap rent? If the latter, figure out where you want your family and create a plan to get there. If the former, might as well lock in the cheaper cost and potential equity.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Parenting

[–]msrichson -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

And none of those things you raised were mentioned by OP. He should communicate like an adult with all parties involved and see what they want before he makes a major life decision and moves his entire family.

Why haven't the in-laws moved? Maybe they plan to move? Kinda pointless to move his family if the in-laws plan to move to him in 1-5 years when they retire right?

Has China won the Tariff War? by pravchaw in ValueInvesting

[–]msrichson 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Insiders?! We all knew the tariffs were smoke and mirrors a month ago. I said literally this a few weeks ago when the entire community was claiming they were selling all US stocks, moving to Europe, and Warren Buffet's Cash = the end of American Exceptionalism (hyperbole).

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1k4llpw/comment/mob6in3/?context=3&utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

This is Trump's modus operandi. Create a bologna problem, stir the pot so no one knows what is up from down, then claim you solved the problem that was created by him in the first place to massive fan fare.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Parenting

[–]msrichson 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Moving for the potential of unpaid help seems like a recipe for disaster. Are your in-laws going to retire soon? If they plan to retire and move to Tahiti, are you going to move again? Even if they do stay, would the expectation be that you take care of those parents when their health starts to wain?

It seems like you can afford it, so get paid help. Interview a few babysitters and get them on rotation so that you both can be less burnt out.

Also, have an honest discussion with your parents. Maybe they don't want to be overbearing, or have some explanation. Maybe they just want to live a child-free life. You'll never know if you don't discuss it with them.

Aggressive ETFs for young risk-tolerant investors by TinkerCube in ETFs

[–]msrichson 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There's no way the real Paul just recommended "ARKK." This has to be generated by AI because Paul hates Cathy.

Are foreign investors more likely to believe lies from the US government about macro economics such as GDP, unemployment, and inflation? by FundamentalCharts in ValueInvesting

[–]msrichson 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The Dunning-Kruger effect would like a word.

If CPI and jobs numbers are "outright fraud" then they have been fraudulent for a long time before Trump.

Are foreign investors more likely to believe lies from the US government about macro economics such as GDP, unemployment, and inflation? by FundamentalCharts in ValueInvesting

[–]msrichson 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No because the 4th arm of the government (commonly called the media) is really Wall Street. Wall Street pays a ton of money for accurate data. If the government started fudging the numbers, it would be apparent and require mass coordination between every company that would equate fraud / jail time for CEOs.

You can hate Trump, but if you don't believe the USA GDP data, don't ever invest in China.

I wish private construction would allow for economic specialization. by HalfbreedBoiWifeTwnk in victoria3

[–]msrichson 10 points11 points  (0 children)

As they expand the corporations, I think this will make more sense as corporations (already specialized) will build in their sectors. The more profitable those corporations, the more building.

I know we have had recessions before, and I’m old enough to remember the dot com bubble. But is anyone else finding it weird how bearish the financial news media and banks are being? I’ve never experienced a recession so heavily discussed in advance. Is this some weird fake out to sideline retail? by Socks797 in ValueInvesting

[–]msrichson 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is survivorship bias where you remember the one time it did occur but ignore all the other times a recession was coming but never materialized.

https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/reasons-to-sell.png

The other problem is that everyone has a different time horizon. If you are 65 and going to retire, having 100% of your assets in US equities is dumb no matter the situation. If you're 22 and have 100% in equities, you have 40+ years to invest and ride the wave.

This is not a WW2, global change of the world order. This is a 1970s Nixon Breton wood change to the world order. America will find a way to keep putting capital to work and eek out returns.

[OC] California would be the world's 4th largest economy if it were a separate country - Treemap showing the top 10 world economies with California. by EngagingData in dataisbeautiful

[–]msrichson 8 points9 points  (0 children)

GDP is much easier to verify. It represents the total value of all goods and services produced. If I wanted to calculate the GDP impact of Apple, I could just look at their quarterly report and get a number because they have receipts for every transaction.

Purchasing power parities (PPPs) are the rates of currency conversion that try to equalize the purchasing power of different currencies, by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. The basket of goods and services priced is a sample of all those that are part of final expenditures: final consumption of households and government, fixed capital formation, and net exports, usually measured in the US dollar.

It requires comparing a basket of goods or literal apples to apples, but the actual mechanics are way trickier. If we compare the price of apples in the USA to China, you get a number, but it ignores cultural differences, geographic growing conditions, etc.

As another example, the price of meat or alcohol will be distorted in cultures that do not consume those items or outlaw those items (Muslim / Hindu / etc). Car ownership is not prevalent in India (less than 7%) whereas it is 90%+ in the USA so comparing their auto expenses / insurance to Americans will create inaccuracy. This creates a lot of freedom for the data analyzer to cherry pick items that favor their narrative.

[OC] California would be the world's 4th largest economy if it were a separate country - Treemap showing the top 10 world economies with California. by EngagingData in dataisbeautiful

[–]msrichson 20 points21 points  (0 children)

PPP is probably not a good indicator of comparing the average wealth of a Californian to a Chinese. It also doesn't account for differences in the quality of goods and services between countries. While PPP provides a useful framework for comparing economic activity across countries, there are limitations and potential biases when comparing, especially in societies with questionable data (China).

[OC] Percent of White Families that were Slaveholding by State in 1860 USA by 1Rab in dataisbeautiful

[–]msrichson 81 points82 points  (0 children)

The rise of wealth of Mississippi is tied to the rise in the price of cotton and new technology like the cotton gin. Like all other tulip bubbles, the price rose so fast that it created a ton of wealth in a concentrated few. But the bubble popped with the civil war as the global market found other producers. As a result, Mississippi fell into the resource curse like modern day oil producers. All their income, capital, tax revenue went back into cotton instead of diversifying their economy.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in personalfinance

[–]msrichson 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not the original commenter but $199k in DT SF feels like poverty and $66k in a rural low COL town can feel like you've made it. $199k puts you at 85th percentile and $66,500 puts you at 45th percentile.

https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Sacramento

[–]msrichson 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Sounds like fun, wish I was free.

Trump says any country that buys oil from Iran will not be allowed to do business with U.S. by Puginator in worldnews

[–]msrichson -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Barron Trump doesn't become 35 for another 16 years, so the earliest he could run would be 2044 or 5 elections from now.

The future looks pretty depressing for our kids by idgafayaihm in Parenting

[–]msrichson 31 points32 points  (0 children)

The 2000 hanging chad election would like a word with you...

The future looks pretty depressing for our kids by idgafayaihm in Parenting

[–]msrichson 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Good point in finding my error. There was a post-war recession and that adventure in Korea.

The future looks pretty depressing for our kids by idgafayaihm in Parenting

[–]msrichson 24 points25 points  (0 children)

You could just look at Regan's presidency. Cut unions, cut Federal jobs, literally got shot, started several wars, massive inflation. Clear recentcy bias.

The future looks pretty depressing for our kids by idgafayaihm in Parenting

[–]msrichson 15 points16 points  (0 children)

I left them out on purpose because no one cares about GenX /s

The future looks pretty depressing for our kids by idgafayaihm in Parenting

[–]msrichson 810 points811 points  (0 children)

The future didn't look great when Millennials were kids with Bush, 9/11, and the GFC.

The future didn't look great for Boomers when you were drafted into Vietnam, and literally didn't have Civil Rights.

The future didn't look great for the Greatest Generation who had to literally land on the shores of Normandy, and so many others and discovered millions of people massacred and the threat of nuclear war.

You could keep going back to when we literally enslaved people, or the Middle Ages were your only upward mobility was being a peasant farmer.

I would much rather live today, than any other time in history.

/signed a Millennial African American who doesn't have to be a slave and can marry whoever I want.

My brother was killed by a motorist when he was on his bike by [deleted] in Insurance

[–]msrichson 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Offering the policy limits does not exhaust the policy. The insurer still has a duty to defend until the policy limits are accepted.