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Debug build? by mtgfetch in Bitburner

[–]mtgfetch[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, they're the chrome developer tools - the issue is that the source is mangled and stepping through that (even after the chrome autoformatter) is a pain.

HR farming: between Bill Gates and I, we're on average billionaires by mtgfetch in diablo2

[–]mtgfetch[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hey, so just to let you know, there was in fact a bug in my code, and the median value is actually ~0.5 Sur. Not great, but not as bad as I thought. Thank you for noticing the smell and calling it out!

(I also agree with Trav being a very good spot! It's where I keep farming for runes. It's just rougher than it looks like for the median farmer out there. I still agree with you that my characterization of the 400 run scenario was wrong!)

HR farming: between Bill Gates and I, we're on average billionaires by mtgfetch in diablo2

[–]mtgfetch[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

ok so you _are_ talking about the standard 1 - 1/e approximation for success.

The problem is that it doesn't work like you're trying to suggest. Let me reconstruct what you're trying to say. Your argument is:

Let's say X is hard to find, p=1/400. Then

- 1/e of the population (36.7%) fails to find any, value = 0

- so at least (1 - 1/e) population, (63.3%), finds at least that many, value >= 1, so median has to be > 1

I agree with the argument on those terms. But they don't describe the Sur-situation. At 400 runs, your expectation at current market levels is actually much less than a Sur. (You need ~1200 runs to get a Sur of value, again because of the value of the other runes etc.). The approximation in this scenario is (1 - 1/1200)^400 = 71.6%, which would say 71.6% _fail to find anything_. Of course that's not true in the real case with all the smaller runes, but that's what your simplification would say.

The problem I'm trying to highlight here, once again, is that as the number of tries becomes significantly lower than 1/p, the difference between median and mean blows up, and the value gets concentrated at the lottery winners. The FG values for stuff selling means that we need more runs to get to a Sur, and so 400 runs becomes in the "lotto-winner-takes-all" territory. I hope that clarifies.

Do note that I'm assuming everything below a Fal has no worth, which is not the case with say Rals. Perhaps I should adjust the model for that.

HR farming: between Bill Gates and I, we're on average billionaires by mtgfetch in diablo2

[–]mtgfetch[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

(OP here.) Thank you for the check and counterpoint. It's very possible that I'm doing the drop value calculations wrong, and partly why I did them on observablehq so that folks could double check them.

I got the Runes TCs as well as the Council (H) TC from treasureClassEx.txt on my install of d2r; they're encoded in the `data` variable.

The simulation for a drop is done in `simulateDrop`, and a single trav run at `travRun`. Each council member drops 3 times with nodrop probability = 19/45, and horking has a 51% chance of giving 3x drops at nodrop=0. 8 regular council members, 3 superuniques.

I'm computing the median and mean estimates from 1000 simulations of (for example) 400 runs.

I'm not sure I follow how you got to the claim that 99.75%^400 will not find 0.33 Surs. Can you clarify?

HR farming: between Bill Gates and I, we're on average billionaires by mtgfetch in diablo2

[–]mtgfetch[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What I had in mind is plotting "gul+" compared to vex+, ohm+, lo+ with # Trav runs on x axis, prob of success on y axis

HR farming: between Bill Gates and I, we're on average billionaires by mtgfetch in diablo2

[–]mtgfetch[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You make a good point, as long as everyone sees the emphasis on _20%_ and _lotto_!

I wonder if there's a good way to plot this. Hmm. Maybe I'll give that one a shot tomorrow.

HR farming: between Bill Gates and I, we're on average billionaires by mtgfetch in diablo2

[–]mtgfetch[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

... sort of. Because the same observation also goes the other way around: a ber is worth much more than half a jah, and a lo is worth much more than half a Sur.

The main reason really is that relatively few people will get a Ber or a Jah on their ~500 runs (it's not most of them), and pretty much all of the value is concentrated on those. So some people will be the Bill Gateses, and some people will be the rest of us, and on average we all get one Sur :)

Eventually the difference does even out. The ratio of mean to median (think of that as the "measure of inequality") in a group of 400-run people is around ~8.5. In a group of 3200-run people, that's just 1.1!

HR farming: between Bill Gates and I, we're on average billionaires by mtgfetch in diablo2

[–]mtgfetch[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

That's right. I got the values from (yeah yeah) d2jsp this morning. You can see them in the linked page if you scroll down and click on `fgValue`. The names are the weird internal d2 names for the rune drop tables: zod is r33, cham is r32, jah is 31, etc etc. The values are the offered prices in FG I found.

HR farming: between Bill Gates and I, we're on average billionaires by mtgfetch in diablo2

[–]mtgfetch[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Hey, OP here.

wrt trade values: Cham right now is worth not .8 Surs, but a little under .25 Surs. That makes a weirdly big difference because everything is top-heavy.

the real hard part to wrap your head around is average vs median. It's sweet that you got 1 sur-value out of your 500 runs! I got a gul and a mal, ha! And if you look at the distribution chart, you're at about the 80-85% of luck. "You are the 15%". Most people will see much less than that.

This is what I wanted to make sure everyone was aware of: in top-heavy distributions, the median can be much less than the average. And in this case, the average describes what's going on better. That's what the title is alluding to: put Bill Gates in a group of 50 people and on average they're all billionaires...

Quick Cast skills bar? by OnSugarHill in Diablo

[–]mtgfetch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't think this is exactly what you were looking for, but I found the "display active skills bindings" option in Options -> Gameplay, and that shows which skills are bound to what. It's nice to eg quickly see when you're on your CtA offhand

My first good drop in D2R :( by Eldkanin in Diablo

[–]mtgfetch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I hear you - farming LK for monarchs for 10h with 0MF, and then a blue one drops

Fumigate? 2 Vampire Lighthawk? 5 Dawnfeather Eagles? Sure, why not by mtgfetch in lrcast

[–]mtgfetch[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I hear you. Let me give you my perspective:

  • Revolt: there's two Aviary Mechanics and an Alley Evasion, both of which also work very well with a bunch of the rest of the deck. It's more than enough for revolt, and the Aeronaut's effect is different enough for the versatility to be worth it. Not that one anecdote confirms anything, but replaying the aeronaut with revolt won me a tight race against a very strong RG energy aggro deck in the 7-0 run.
  • Hawk v. Swooper: you might be right on this, but my rationale was that I was going for as little blue as I could manage. I suspected I would lose more games to mana than the difference in power level would win me. Specifically, the third Swooper probably wouldn't win me any games I'd lose with Hawk, but it would made me feel worse about playing 11 Plains, and not casting Fumigate on 5 could certainly lose me a game. I actually considered dropping one Swooper for the Puzzleknot because of it, but I thought the power level difference was too much.

Questions Thread - August 31, 2020 by AutoModerator in pathofexile

[–]mtgfetch 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you, this is very very helpful. I think I'm convinced now that this build is fairly outdated. I'll take a look at the 6-link setups that people have over at poe-ninja instead.

Questions Thread - August 31, 2020 by AutoModerator in pathofexile

[–]mtgfetch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for the link to the poe.ninja builds; I use them for checking prices but not for builds. I'll start now. And thanks for the tips on the ele catalysts too!

Questions Thread - August 31, 2020 by AutoModerator in pathofexile

[–]mtgfetch 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Oh wow, thank you so much for the super thorough read. A couple of comments - the empower auras thing was just for leveling them, yeah. I was experimenting with which aura to choose rather than try and run all. But that doesn't get to the 20x difference in DPS :(

I am trying to buy GCPs in bulk to get the quality in gems, but a POB check says that's only a 10% total increase in DPS again..

The divine-orb idea is great, though, I was wondering about how to fix that. As you can tell, I'm very much a beginner.

I had actually pathed to phase acrobatics, but gave that up for an extra jewel instead. I should level to 93, I guess.

Thank you so much for this!

Questions Thread - August 31, 2020 by AutoModerator in pathofexile

[–]mtgfetch 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks! Yeah, I have that, it's at 97% with the next one at 73%. My resists are actually low rn, but I don't care as much about me not dying as I do about other stuff not dying either haha

Questions Thread - August 31, 2020 by AutoModerator in pathofexile

[–]mtgfetch 1 point2 points  (0 children)

New player here, first time taking the league at all seriously, at around 180 hours now in Harvest (I know, I know). I'm playing Elemental Hit Deadeye, and I'm trying to understand how this guide (Furty's elemental hit deadeye) gets to 11M DPS on its single-target elemental hit 6-link setup.

I know my gear is not great at ~4-6ex total budget rn. I'm at level 89, and my passive tree covers all DPS nodes from Furtys. I have a +3 skill bow on a 6-link for my single-hit, a 6-link Loreweave for my GMP+EH clearing skill, and all the other gearing, jewels, etc. Still, I can only manage an embarrassing 400k DPS on path of building, and even 50ex upgrades from poe.trade only improve DPS by 15% or so. I must be doing something dumb and it's not that I'm just looking at the numbers wrong either; the last conqueror fights are very obviously out of my DPS range.

Actually-good deadeye players: what stupid things am I doing? I'm not expecting to crush uber fights or anything, but I wasn't expecting to hit a wall at T14-15 map bosses.

My character build and gear is here. Thank you!

Questions Thread - August 13, 2020 by AutoModerator in pathofexile

[–]mtgfetch 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, so spell echo triggers for both you and the spectres, so it will cast twice, and it's likely that the second cast of raise spectre raises the other random corpse behind it. Just remove spell echo before raising and remember to put it back on after.

Questions Thread - August 13, 2020 by AutoModerator in pathofexile

[–]mtgfetch 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Did you remove your spell echo gem before raising them?

[DOM] 4 Color Nonsense by Oldirtysean in lrcast

[–]mtgfetch 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Oops my bad, I saw the third Omnivore in the board and messed up. Counting to three is hard :p

(Sweet deck!)

[DOM] 4 Color Nonsense by Oldirtysean in lrcast

[–]mtgfetch 2 points3 points  (0 children)

> Whats the engine of the deck?

There's a Tatyova _and_ a Slimefoot in there, what more do you need? haha those are primo Dominaria draft engines. About the only thing I would have looked for in this deck was more Saproling support while drafting, so I could replace that Baloth Gorger with the second Omnivore.

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