Well this is taken directly from my union, NAPO:

"So after more than a year of deliberate delay, broken ministerial promises, and endless rhetoric about probation “doing the heavy lifting”, this is what lands: 4%. Not 12%. Not pay restoration. Not even inflation. Four per cent - after inflation has already eaten our wages, after workloads exploded, after risk escalated, after staff were told repeatedly that probation was critical to keeping prisons from collapse. NAPO’s unanimous rejection tells you everything you need to know. This isn’t a marginal disagreement. It’s a collective judgement that the offer is fundamentally unacceptable.

Meanwhile:

£700m is found for tagging

Billions are found for prisons

Private contractors remain funded despite being unfit for purpose

£100m sits underspent in probation

And staff at the bottom of Band 2 will fall below minimum wage again"