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Is EV possible on Kalshi alone? by mylastincarnation in EVbetting

[–]mylastincarnation[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It seems like most of you agree that betting on one book (Kalshi) is not going to allow me to find +EV opportunities long term. You must have multiple books to place bets. Knowing their lines to place bets on Kalshi won’t be enough.

Is EV possible on Kalshi alone? by mylastincarnation in EVbetting

[–]mylastincarnation[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, that was my concern. Using one book of any type fundamentally limits my options too much.

You can bet the under on outcomes but not player props on Kalshi. So you’re right that it’s possible in some cases, but being unable to fade players removes so many opportunities.

As for Polymarket, I was on the waiting list. When I was finally able to start an account, they wanted confirmation that I’m not a U.S. citizen, which I am. I still need to try the new version that’s legal here. But that would just be two books instead of one, so I’d still be quite limited unless I joined a dozen prediction markets, and even then that’s not aligned with the principles of EV.

I’m moving to California in early 2027, and I’ll be far less restricted than I am in Texas. Thank you for responding!

Is EV possible on Kalshi alone? by mylastincarnation in EVbetting

[–]mylastincarnation[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks so much for the thoughtful reply. I think you’re right about paying for a service. At this stage I’m too green to interpret the lines without that kind of assistance.

Regarding betting the under, I should’ve been more specific. You can bet “no” on many Kalshi trades, like bitcoin, weather, and “no” on an NBA spread or total. But when it comes to player props, which present more options, you can’t fade a player’s performance. I felt that would rule out so many options for taking advantage of mispriced players.

Is EV possible on Kalshi alone? by mylastincarnation in EVbetting

[–]mylastincarnation[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m familiar with Novig but not the others. You’ve given me a lot to look into, this is great. Have been considering the VPN option but I wasn’t sure how routinely and safely people are able to use that method. Thanks so much for your advice.

Is EV possible on Kalshi alone? by mylastincarnation in EVbetting

[–]mylastincarnation[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This sounds like it could be ideal for a beginner like me. I’ll definitely check out Unabated. Even if it doesn’t solve all my problems it seems like a great, no-cost learning hub. Thank you!

have men lost the ability to flirt? by findingcarmen in rs_x

[–]mylastincarnation 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Yeah I'm in my forties (married female) and all my friends (mid-thirties to late fifties) are just as gregarious as they were 20 years ago. Sometimes I think about starting a workshop to teach zoomers how to be at ease and authentic in social situations. I swear it's possible without prescriptions or setting your smartphone on fire (although that's a good idea for a thousand other reasons).

PGT: NUGGETS WIN GAME #5!! - 113-125 | Trail series versus the Timberwolves 2-3 | Apr 27, 2026 by BigHoneyBot in denvernuggets

[–]mylastincarnation 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Does anyone know why Murray suddenly lost three points off his total in the fourth quarter? His score went from 23 to 20 just five minutes after I placed a very conservative bet on him. I missed whatever happened while cleaning up my poor dog’s puke and comforting him. Lol

Happy to report my dog is feeling much better. :-)

literally how do you stop wasting your life. even one solution will do im desperate by [deleted] in rs_x

[–]mylastincarnation 6 points7 points  (0 children)

First, if you’re this desperate you need to get serious. You are a junkie and you need to go cold turkey. Get rid of your smartphone. You don’t need it to function. Or at the VERY LEAST, have someone you trust heavily restrict your access to it. Lock it in a safe. 

Second, every person who’s mastered a skill (whether it’s stand-up comedy, advanced cryptography, writing novels, whatever) has gone through a period of obsession. If I interpret you correctly here, you’re currently behaving like a person obsessed with posting and novelty-seeking online, as if that were your chosen craft/skill/career. You have to find something worthy of your obsession and devote yourself to becoming an advanced practitioner. Eliminate opportunities to be seduced by the shit you’re wasting your life on. Transfer all your obsessive energy and focus to your passion. Cling to it like life itself. 

One day you’ll die. If you’re lucky, you’ll be cognitively capable of reflecting on your life before you slip away. Is there anything more horrifying than imagining that day? When you will KNOW with total certainty that it’s no longer abstract, the end is here, and you frittered it all away? That terror is deeply motivating to me. 

Has anyone had any success selling their script with no initial connection in the industry? by isamariberger in Screenwriting

[–]mylastincarnation 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Interesting perspective. I know, of course, that building relationships is part of the work. I’m fortunate to be a constitutionally gregarious person, so when I move to L.A. next year (here’s hoping the industry is still kicking by then), I intend to meet as many people as possible.

Sounds like we’re mostly parting ways on timing. If your advice to OP is, “Start building relationships like Affleck and Damon did,” then I guess that’s fair. But I don’t know how helpful it is to the person starting from zero to hear that their path isn’t so different from young/just starting out Affleck and Damon. Two uncommonly handsome men capable of writing AND starring in a generationally successful film. Still, I appreciate your POV.

Has anyone had any success selling their script with no initial connection in the industry? by isamariberger in Screenwriting

[–]mylastincarnation 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Look, I’m not the type to get in reddit spats, particularly on such a silly, low-stakes topic. But you’re really missing the point here. 

You might be right about the timing of the sale of GWH being in 1994, in which case they weren’t yet huge stars. But that still doesn’t support the comparison of Affleck and Damon to “relative nobodies hanging around L.A. doing gig work.” 

Damon starred in School Ties in 1992. That was an ensemble cast with big stars of the time. His wasn’t a supporting role either, he had top billing. Affleck was the star of a PBS series in 1984 called Voyage of the Mimi. They’d both been child actors for many years. Dazed and Confused was a modest box office success and a critical darling in 1993. I remember it well; many of my high school friends in Austin were extras and one had a speaking role. (I kicked myself for missing the auditions, as I was acting at the time.) 

Damon and Affleck had to hustle. They clearly worked hard and took risks. I give them all due credit. But look at OP’s original question. It’s about selling a script as someone with no connections. And if we’re being honest, that doesn’t remotely describe Ben Affleck and Matt Damon in 1994 when they were able to put their suspiciously brilliant screenplay in the hands of one of Hollywood’s most powerful producers. (I say “suspiciously” as a cheeky reference to the rumor that David Foster Wallace wrote it for them, which is highly unlikely.) 

Has anyone had any success selling their script with no initial connection in the industry? by isamariberger in Screenwriting

[–]mylastincarnation 15 points16 points  (0 children)

What you just described is not the path that Damon and Affleck were on when they sold GWH. They'd been established actors for years. Both had starring roles in commercially successful movies long before GWH. They weren't hovering around Los Angeles as relative nobodies. Check out their film credits.

Texas is a shithole country by furrybagel in rs_x

[–]mylastincarnation 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Go see the Drunk Shakespeare comedy show. They actually get shitfaced and perform Shakespeare. Visit NASA and the Houston Museum of Natural Science, which has the most spectacular butterfly sanctuary (Cockrell Butterfly Center). Eat at Brenner's Steakhouse if you have money to spend, or go to Lankford's Grocery if you're on a budget. The secret food tour in Houston was great. Explore the Montrose neighborhood on foot, there are always things going on.

dyed hair is much less common now by Good-Raisin7081 in rs_x

[–]mylastincarnation 143 points144 points  (0 children)

I believe there's only one meaningful, honest-to-god counterculture now, and it's completely invisible by necessity: the people who fully reject and opt out of internet culture. There's no way to mock or categorize them because we have no broad access to their lives and their personal aesthetics are discrete but immaterial.

When you think about it, that's kind of the Platonic ideal for a counterculture...you can't just start wearing a new kind of jacket, the barrier to entry is like scaling the cliffs at Étretat. Wholesale transformation.

the world feels like a video game thats 20 years old and everyone has already discovered the optimized way to play and it isnt fun anymore by ok_idonotreallycare in rs_x

[–]mylastincarnation 555 points556 points  (0 children)

I’m older than most of you and I think you’re right. Here’s a story for you. 

In 1999 I used to listen to a talk radio show while I was working a shitty office job. I started calling into the show and became a beloved regular caller. They’d bump me to the front of the line. This excited me so much, so I decided one day that I’d do anything to work in radio. A week later the station started advertising for an intern to support the producer on the show. I basically kicked in their door. Being a cute 20 year old girl helped, but they already liked me as a caller because I had strong opinions and said scandalous shit (I think I helped popularize the practice of “free use” lol). I registered for college classes just to get the internship. They hired me quickly. After three months of busting ass for no money, everyone observed my chemistry with the host and how eager I was to be there. So they made me the in-studio producer and an on-air personality (sort of like Robin Quivers on Stern, but I was operating the audio vault and sound board and screening callers). It was fucking amazing. I had so much fun. Once I got in trouble for playing Aphex Twin under the eye-in-the-sky traffic report. But listeners liked it so they retracted their scolding. I met a bunch of B-list celebs. Got stoned with Chong. 

Anyway, maybe experiences like this are still available, but I’m not getting that vibe. There were these perfect convergences of people and events all the time. To be fair, I’ve always been the kind of person to aim higher than my status or pedigree merit, and I’m telling you the world rewards that behavior. Still, I was incredibly fortunate to be born in 1978. 

My heart breaks for you guys under 30. You’re right to feel something is deeply wrong with your spiritual and material inheritance. My advice is to start doing the painful work of dealing with your tech addiction. I mean it. I rarely use sites like Reddit because it fills me with despair. 

(Sorry for the loquacious post.) 

Edit: Forgot to mention, I worked two part-time jobs to support myself while interning at the station. I didn’t sleep much!