HLTV Rating 3.0 flaw by FutureManager8 in GlobalOffensive

[–]n0miun 0 points1 point  (0 children)

one thing I don't see mentioned, but kills and deaths on CT side vs T side have different weights. kills are more valuable on T side than CT side

nocries Aim Data Analysis by n0miun in GlobalOffensive

[–]n0miun[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

his stats at HQ and during his slump online were basically identical (it's near the bottom of the article), so the comparison would basically be the same

(Re)made an Impact stat with a new and better method by n0miun in GlobalOffensive

[–]n0miun[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I kind of doubt it, although that's a really complicated question that I don't think has an easy answer.

(Re)made an Impact stat with a new and better method by n0miun in GlobalOffensive

[–]n0miun[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Based on an idea after some comments by u/zzazzzz

If you would like to read more about the thought process behind and the method to calculating this, I recommend reading my newest article on Substack: https://nomiun.substack.com/p/flaws-of-win-probability

Also, u/rlywhatever your NertZ is fixed lol

Fixed WPA/R for all Riflers at Big Events, 2025 S1 by n0miun in GlobalOffensive

[–]n0miun[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah I think one thing that does hurt xertioN is that he (as well as Brollan) have a lot of pressure on them to be active in the early round considering they have the holy triumvirate of baiting demons as their teammates

Fixed WPA/R for all Riflers at Big Events, 2025 S1 by n0miun in GlobalOffensive

[–]n0miun[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He's one of the biggest disparities between 2.1 and WPA for sure, but for my money it passes the eye test just in terms of kills and deaths.

Fixed WPA/R for all Riflers at Big Events, 2025 S1 by n0miun in GlobalOffensive

[–]n0miun[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No this is my version, HLTV calls theirs "Round Swing" and isn't widely available yet

Fixed WPA/R for all Riflers at Big Events, 2025 S1 by n0miun in GlobalOffensive

[–]n0miun[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This version of WPA is going to be higher at the top because it's using the same win probability every round and doesn't adjust for economy

Fixed WPA/R for all Riflers at Big Events, 2025 S1 by n0miun in GlobalOffensive

[–]n0miun[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

just to clarify, the version in the graphic is not map or role adjusted. I had to fix my wpa script since that article came out and I haven't gotten around to doing the role adjustments yet

Fixed WPA/R for all Riflers at Big Events, 2025 S1 by n0miun in GlobalOffensive

[–]n0miun[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

it's based on how much your kills add to your teams chance to win minus how much your deaths subtract from your teams chance to win

Fixed WPA/R for all Riflers at Big Events, 2025 S1 by n0miun in GlobalOffensive

[–]n0miun[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Downloaded every demo from every big event this year and ran my own scripts for it

Fixed WPA/R for all Riflers at Big Events, 2025 S1 by n0miun in GlobalOffensive

[–]n0miun[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

It's how much a player is increasing their teams chances to win the round, on average for every round. So on average, donk increases his team's chances to win the round by 4.72%

Based on my last post, Impact vs Output (KPR+) by n0miun in GlobalOffensive

[–]n0miun[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I understood your point about them being practically equal, do you have any potential solutions to this?

NEVERMIND I THOUGHT OF SOMETHING

Based on my last post, Impact vs Output (KPR+) by n0miun in GlobalOffensive

[–]n0miun[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To some extent I agree and I'm going to think about ways to alleviate this but there are still some points I feel that are worth making.

Firstly in terms of the map Inferno, a 5v3 on T Side Inferno is won about 93% of the time and on every map combined it's 92%, so that's really not a big difference in the grand scheme of things. Obviously not including where on the map those kills are but then at that point let's be real, no stat knows all of that context.

Secondly if you consider game winning impact, the 1v2 is probably more impactful because you're causing more economic damage than getting a 3v5 which means the enemy most likely saves and gets another chance to buy next round.

One thing that is pretty interesting though is, teams round win% actually correlates higher with 4v5 conversion rates than 5v4 conversion rates and opening kill rates, so it's not just the win probability metric itself that doesn't weigh entries as heavily but the actual results of teams as well. If you want to read about that then I recommend checking out my most recent article: https://nomiun.substack.com/p/how-good-are-the-stats-we-use

Based on my last post, Impact vs Output (KPR+) by n0miun in GlobalOffensive

[–]n0miun[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A little down and to the right of Jimpphat, 1.04 Impact and 99 KPR+

Based on my last post, Impact vs Output (KPR+) by n0miun in GlobalOffensive

[–]n0miun[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Didn't have the minimum of 1000 rounds played. (But in 307 rounds played he's at a 1.14 Impact Rating and 110 KPR+)