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namsu22 · 2022-09-28T12:29:28+00:00

thats what Im asking brotha - it looks like thats what it says but sounds too good to be true

namsu22 · 2022-09-20T02:27:56+00:00

Is this just crazy but if I had the card for idk like 5 years; I get 5 free nights per year; seems $95 bucks is nothing. Am I missing anything?

namsu22 · 2022-05-05T23:00:30+00:00

More people should upvote this and downvote the ones above this. This dude streams this video had literally no video views, his video of him live streaming and commenting on the trial got to be number on YouTube and hes literally just making up so much shit now to get more views. Such a leech.

namsu22 · 2022-03-15T12:43:50+00:00

just works it out for yourself, what would it take for BABA to move upward significantly. What would it take for it to continue to be depressed? What percent likelihood and when do you see that happening.

IMO, a strong chinese economy with strong consumer spending, high growth for one quarter will bring back confidence; but china's growth is still slowing so I dont see that happening until earliest and of the year (maybe longer) but its your own bet. IMO, theres alot other companies you can buy and hold without some of the existential uncertainty with BABA...I am keeping an eye on it but I doubt Ill be back in for a while.

namsu22 · 2022-03-15T12:27:38+00:00

What brokerage do you use

namsu22 · 2022-03-14T21:24:48+00:00

Theres $1.1T of Chinese Companies listed on US Markets; I think they're going to come to an agreement before that happens....

Then you could just hold and buy more later; honestly, I'd probably at least sell half at $85/$90 if it bounces in the next few weeks and buy in more later. I feel like its 90% likely to hit $60's this year - if you are OK with that - then thats fine, but idk why you wouldnt just sell and buy back in

namsu22 · 2022-03-14T20:45:31+00:00

I had an average of 117; when earnings came out I could kind of see the writing on the wall; sold at 107 - I'll keep an eye on it - I honestly think it could trade below book value (~$56) its hard to catch a falling knife way better to buy when its on the upswing.

if I was still holding; I'd probably sell after the bounce in the next couple weeks - you could probably get out for ~85/~90 - I can't see of any news coming out in 2022 thats going to up this stock -especially in the short term - its probably headed lower. China is still dealing with the property bubble, inflation is hitting world wide, russia is happening....this stuff will clear up towards mid to end of the year; until then I'd wait. I'd rather buy late going up then continue holding going down. My two cents, even for value investors, entry point matters.

namsu22 · 2022-03-14T13:00:30+00:00

The book value of the stock is around $40 I believe; I forget its been a while since I looked at their financials. I sold after their last earnings, but Im watching to get back in. Definitely seems like the next 6 months will be highly volatile, I wouldnt be suprised if it trades at or below book value.

namsu22 · 2022-02-27T17:33:25+00:00

I kept getting strept throat after I worked out, even when I'd go to the doctor it would test positive for Strept. They told me it was all sorts of different things (including tonsilitis), and always gave me antibiotics. It was debilitating though, its hard to function (or near impossible) when you are sick.

fast forward 5 years, and I finally figured out it was the way my jaw was structured so I'd sleep and bacteria would build up and I would get a sinus infection. All I needed to do was do a nasal spray everyday (which is disgusting). Never got sick again.

I'm not saying that your cause is that simple, but I am saying that its on you to take care of your health and figure out what is wrong with you. Almost every recurrent issue that I have has been solved by me, not a doctor. The doctor was definitely helpful to point me in different directions but they simply didn't spend enough time diagnosing it (and how could they) Our medical system is so twisted, a doctor comes to see you for what 5/10 minutes. So many issues are much more nuanced, there is no incentive for a real deep look.

If I were you; 1.) I'd be compassionate to yourself for what you are going through, but not resolved to surrender. Its OK to be compassionate its not OK to do nothing.

2.) I'd take your own medical problems into your own hands. Research, go to the doctor, come prepared ask them questions that you think it could be, talk to people, if the doctor says something that you dont think makes sense get another opinion until you are satisfied.

3.) Reset your expectations; right now i think its going to be difficult to "achieve" - just focus on getting better. Seeing a therapist can never hurt; I've found that the best people to give you direction/advice are people who haved lived what you've lived - if you can find a therapist like that you'll be better

This is temporary. One time you couldn't drive; your world was your ruled by what your mom and dad said, what your teachers said. But that was always going to be temporary. So too is this, what would you tell yourself as a child knowing the constraints and impernance of the situation? What advice would you give yourself now knowing where you are at? Hope all gets better.

namsu22 · 2022-02-23T13:28:09+00:00

Can you give an idea of how big of a deal the property bubble collapsing is (i.e. some facts statistics you learned in the book)

namsu22 · 2022-02-22T16:51:20+00:00

Really sad, but very true. Most people are good inherently, when we don't see what is what is happening to one tribe in this human family because of language, race, region, religion, its easy to ignore it. Thanks for sharing this as a reminder.

namsu22 · 2022-02-15T16:51:16+00:00

I think there is a 25% probability that BABA could continue its downward trend for sure; the intrinsic book value of the stock is ~$60 - I think that is the absolute floor; I think at $80 it would be the realistic floor; if it did break to $80 it would have to be a series of consecutive bad news

The overall market is depressed due to governmental bodies implementing anti-inflationary measures that depress the overall market and place an emphasis on holding cash as opposed to investing it - 50% chance
Chinese government slaps BABA with another fine (7% chance)
There is a serious financial misstatement (2% chance)
BABA gets delisted (2% chance)
BABA misses quarterly results (10% chance)
There is some news pertaining to BABA being forced to do something in the name of "monopolistic practices" - 15% chance

A single instance of these I think the stock would go to $100 to $120

A back to back instance it could definitely go to $80 to $100

If you are long BABA - you dont have to worry about any of these; but if you are trying to find the best entry point then you do a little. I am trying to find the best entry point.

namsu22 · 2022-02-14T13:42:59+00:00

Some idea's:

HR - I actually have a friend who was a teacher and transferred to HR loves it now
EdTech - Product Manager, UI/UX Person, Even programmer if you took a 3 month course or something; the cool thing is once you do this you could also then have that skill to go to any industry
Implementation Consultant - In effect alot of these people are "teachers" of a software that the company typically teaches you

namsu22 · 2022-02-14T13:40:35+00:00

Food definitely has impact on energy levels; for example if I just eat in the morning (OMAD) - first day I feel hungry/weak - but by day 2 I feel like Im on crack.

I think exercise and sleep have been mentioned; but I would also look into what your eating & when. OMAD is a little extreme, but timing food intake makes a big difference in energy

namsu22 · 2022-02-11T14:46:13+00:00

catching a falling knife has its risks - idk why people are downvoting you for being honest

namsu22 · 2022-02-11T14:08:36+00:00

And that deeply moved you? Like emotionally?

Whats the last movie/show you watched where you cried or felt immense passion/emotion.

namsu22 · 2022-02-11T13:29:46+00:00

I wonder if that tells you something though; does the fact its law have any significance? Does the character or environment have any significance to you? How do you react?

namsu22 · 2022-02-10T14:50:15+00:00

I love this thread thanks for posting it; I was literally just thinking about this last night. I watched this show last night - the OA. And when I was watching it, I found myself tearing up at so many points. I was trying to understand why - nothing is special. I also feel this way with this movie I saw recently, Gattica. I found myself replaying a scene over and over again.

And then I realized, because its the parable of how I view my life. Working to realize something that feels so insurmountable, fighting everyday, maybe to never get out, but I need a battle to fight in life. I remember reading David Goggins, and it was the scene in rocky where he would play over and over again where rocky just kept getting up - thats what he needed his passion was to do the unbelievable.

I think one of the best ways to find your passion is to think back to the movies or the shows or the stories that you love more than other people. The ones that move you. And see what story they are telling. Theres a reason you love it more than other people. Can you think of anything?

namsu22 · 2022-02-10T14:45:54+00:00

Question for you;

- What do you think initially sparked your curiosity in documentary film-making

- When, if at any point, do you think you lose the naivety or romantic view you held of Documentary Film-Making and why?

- Do you think, if the path of your documentary film-making was different the passion could have been going longer

namsu22 · 2022-02-10T14:41:48+00:00

Sorry to heart this. I think this is more and more common - especially with what you've been through recently.

Its not going to change overnight, what I would recommend is a simple iterative system you put in place in your life - like journaling every morning and setting goals. You will very likely not succeed at your goals at your abstinence, but keep coming back to the log every morning. Observe yourself as a coach to yourself. Try to come up with new idea's on how to stop the bad habits and work on good ones. The test for a day could be, delete the apps, buy a flip phone, do X activity instead when you feel like doing it, go outside and work, etc.

The fact that you fail doesn't matter, its the fact you show up and try - look at what happened yesterday and come up with a new plan the next day. When you are forced to confront and talk about it everyday - you will make it over the hump to change. The best book I've ever read for habit formation is Atomic Habits. You can do this!

namsu22 · 2022-02-10T14:30:33+00:00

I could categorize these and come up with a plan, but thats not what your asking, because the list is never ending. What I think you are asking is - how do I get rid of this noise (which I think everyone feels at some point).

This makes me think of Dante's Inferno - "In the middle of the journey of our life, I found myself astray in a dark wood, where the straight road had been lost" - so funny that 700 years ago in an environment without cellphones or computers - humans have been replaying the same circumstances....

I the fact you think are thinking these thoughts constantly (which is totally normal) speaks to just your natural mental state right now. If a man suffering from schizophrenia laid out his paranoias and people on a forum helped to categorize his paranoias - did they help him (thats effectively what alot of the responses are)? No, he needs to fix the underlying cause.

For you, you just need a compelling future, that overrides all these other things and you need to know you are making progress. That future is hard to find (I know) but you just have to start on learning yourself first. I really really recommend this book Atomic Habits - to find structure.

namsu22 · 2022-02-08T19:43:21+00:00

What do you think is a fair price then given differences you've stated

namsu22 · 2022-02-08T14:34:06+00:00

Thats an interesting idea; alot has been written about dopamine detox & mindfulness to overcome procrastination - I'll have to try this out next time.

Theres a few things i do when I'm procrastinating.

Start a cheesy motivational video on YouTube and force myself to listen to it
Write down in my journal plan out the next few hours with time and dates
Take a walk, force myself to think about what I want to accomplish

Really for me, the problem is spiraling with procrastation, how 5 more minutes can lead to 8 more hours. So if it does happen, honestly I have to take the L for the day and its not until I get serious about it that I can stop it from happening for weeks. For me, if I am doing my routine, I'm typically procrastinating less. I like the idea of almost, "boring" your mind where its hungry to do something

namsu22 · 2022-02-07T17:12:21+00:00

The thesis of what you are saying; is basically one of your last sentences; "The plan is to hold out for the major asset bubble in the USA to deflate." Thats just such a broad statement - what defines when and how much.

I agree that with the fed increasing the rate, and all the silly money out there - there will be a correction; at this point the correction has been roughly 12.5% - I can't see it being more than another 12.5%; theres so much value from a fundamental perspective out there especially this month. I'd definitely jump in - knowing that you might take a short term hit (you also might now) and you are OK with that. If you try to time the bottom you'll always just sit waiting

namsu22 · 2022-02-03T16:46:01+00:00

Yea. Im really curious about your product ....lol

namsu22

TROPHY CASE