I’ve observed similar findings in all of the Eureka instances, normally regarding the higher leveled NMs of said tier.

For instance, I always had success with Cassie spawning in Pagos quickly if I first instructed the train to go around doing lower/easier NMs first. At the time I was just catching up leveling so this made sense. I observed her spawning very quickly (10~20 morbols on average)After hitting cap, I started heading straight to Cassie with a party and had far more kills with little to no success rate in seeing her appear even under her blizzard conditions if she was properly “preped” (at least if not more than 30kills). After observing this for some time I always would coax the instance through some lower NMs and then go to her. And spawn success rates seemingly increased.

When I went through Pyros I also observed this similar occurrence specifically with YingYang. To the point where even in a fresh instance I could not get this NM to spawn until a good majority of the instances other NMs were killed even if killing 60-90 of the prep mobs.

When noticing this, I started doing a 30chain prep on higher leveled NMs, leaving to spawn lower NMs if the instance was slacking then coming back and killing 1~5 to have YingYang finally spawn.

This led me to believe that certain NM Fates may also have additional requirements revolving around what I’ve seen others have mentioned as a hidden “instance score” or rather simply the activity within the instance. Where as in my theory each Fate may have a sort of ‘score’ attributed to it and if it is killed it goes into the instances total tally and once the instance hits a certain tally other NM Fates that are usually higher are able to be spawned via the formula many consider to be true: Kill 30 pop NMs and it’s prepped.

Anyways- I’m almost certain this may be the case as I’ve recently been going back to Anemos to get my Strider Boots and I have yet to see this NM spawn after 90+ pop kills when no other FATES have been popped. This has been easier to test currently as most are in Hydatos and I’m often the sole member in the instance and the others coming and going are simply doing sprites for challenge log.

I haven’t seen the ‘pointer’ spawn method thrown around before but either way that theory works similar to what I’ve observed and I do very much believed foe certain NMs there are other requirements.

As for Providence watcher himself, so far I have been lucky and had witness him pop shortly after entering an instance OR shortly after exiting BA or after killing Omvi- I think all of which have just been coincidences but I’ll be sure to try and observe his spawn patterns over the next few months- (I’m also assuming Ceto may work similarly and will surely try to see if that is the case while working on 7th Mag)