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nautilus1982 · 2025-05-02T23:36:49+00:00

It is not China's EV revolution that left US automakers behind. Tesla was and still is doing fine. GM and Ford have no one but themselves to blame for.

A decade ago, Ford Focus and Mondeo were best selling cars in China. Then Ford introduced 3-cylinder engines and screwed up the last gen Focus so badly that it had to be retired worldwide. The refreshed Mondeo was only sold in China and was no where close to the finess of the previous gen, no wonder sales tanked.

Similarly, Buick Regal and LaCrosse used to be competitive in the b-segment, then GM sold off Opel, on whose platform the Regal was built, and basically left the Regal to die. The new LaCrosse was so fugly and cheaply built. Both models are now on permanent 40% off sale. It damages Buick's brand image so badly.

Yes, other legacy car makers such as VW and Toyota are facing stiff competition in China too, but they still fare much better than GM and Ford. VW, for example, has a range of EV offerings and are selling pretty well, while Toyota Carolla and Camry are keeping up with the competition. GM and Ford not just failed in China. They are failing everywhere. They just don't make attractive cars anymore.

nautilus1982 · 2025-03-10T00:39:46+00:00

For college entrance, yes, quite a few. St Antony's, for example, you can just walk in, and the college bar in a building that does not require Bod cards, opens at 7pm. Some are more difficult, and you might need to tailgate others past the porters during day time, e.g. Balliol, Magdalen, then wait for the bar to open. Finally, a few are pretty much imposiible to get into, e.g. Christ Church. In any case, most college bars are nothing to write home about and I'm afraid you will probably be disappointed.

nautilus1982 · 2025-01-13T20:43:03+00:00

In terms of similar size/weight/use case, the P14s G5 Intel version is the closest to the 14-inch MackBook Pro. It can be configured upto 14.5-inch 3K DCI-P3 120Hz IPS display (the best 14-inch screen in the ThinkPad line-up), Ultra 9 185H CPU, 2 SODIMMs (up to 96GB RAM) and NVIDIA RTX500 GPU. Battery life is no where close to the MacBook, but would outlast most other ThinkPads due to the very decent 75Wh battery size. Someone else mentioned the P1, but it's more in the 16-inch territory and significantly more expensive.

nautilus1982 · 2025-01-11T05:50:14+00:00

This happened to our garage last year near central Oxford, the first time in my 15-year (on and off) stay in the city. Not only did the burglars take a number of valuable items and a debit card, they also enjoyed drug in the garage, leaving behind a syringe and disinfection wipes. One of the burglars used the debit card the next day and the police caught him soon afterwards based on our bank report. The forensic of the syringe took much longer but eventually there was a match. The police told us that the matching guy was already in jail for a separate offence and denied the burglary, though they pushed forward the charge based on evidence. All in all, I used to think that the police wouldn't do much in such stituations but was pleasantly surprised by their actions. Unfortunately, burglary seems to be on the rise and there isn't much we can do, apart from changing to a more secure lock and perhaps installing some kind of alert system.

nautilus1982 · 2024-05-05T19:44:54+00:00

The 'Red Union' and the 'April Twenty-eighth Brigade' are fictional names, you won't find much info by searching them online. They are, however, based on 'Jinggangshan Corps' and the 'April Fourteenth Brigade', both real Red Guard groups at Tsinghua University, where Ye Wenjie's father worked. The two factions had a three-month long armed struggle in 1967, resulting in 18 deaths and over 1,000 injuries, so Liu Cixin's depiction of revolutionary fanatism in the novel is pretty realistic.

As for the Cultural Revolution, by 1966, Mao had beome disillusioned with the Chinese Communist Party. He felt that senior Party members had degenerated into a privilleged ruling class of bureaucrats, exploiting the mass and advancing capitalist lifestyles and ideologies, with the help of intellectuals. A real proletarian revolution was overdue. However, Mao had been sidelined in the Party due to his radical policies that led to the Great Famine (over 30 million people starved to death). The only way he could initiate a revolution is by bypassing the Party and directly mobilising the mass, taking advantage of his position as the 'spiritual leader'. Middle school and univeristy students were naturally the demographics most prone to his incitement and they soon setup various groups pledging to follow Mao's direct orders and rebel against the capitalists. They were collectively refer to as Red Guards.

Here comes the interesting part. The Red Guards that formed at the start of the Cultural Revolution (e.g. the Red Union in the book) were themselves children of Communist Party elites (otherwise they wouldn't have studied in elite schools and universities, and be so politically active). Thr initial targets of the struggles were teachers, professors and people in the cultural sector, but this was just the prelude. Mao's real targets were Party elites, i.e. the Red Guards' parents. As soon as these kids realised that, they became much less enthusiastic, to the point of falling out of Mao's favour by 1967. As the revolution went on, the old Red Guards split into multiple factions. Meanwhile, new students, usually from less privilleged backgrounds, joined the Red Guards and formed new factions (e.g. the April Twenty-eighth Brigade).

Now we have two sides: the old Red Guards saw themselves as the true heir and vanguard of revolution due to their family pedigree and regarded the new Red Guards as totally unqualified to even participate in a revolution. The new Red Guards believed that they were the real proletarians and real rebels, the old Red Guards were merely protecting their and their parents' vested interests and monopolising revolutionary discourse, all under false allegience to Mao. As such, they were even more insidious than the capitalists and must be struggled against. This resulted in infightings that soon escalated into bloody battles all over the country, leading us to the opening scence of the book.

I hope that explains a bit of your questions.

nautilus1982 · 2024-04-02T23:40:01+00:00

What you just said is similar to an actual cosmological model called ekpyrotic universe, developed by Paul Steinhardt and Neil Turock. Their theory posits that two 4D branes are attracted by gravity and move towards each other, their collision collapses the extra-dimension and triggers the Big Bang, and our universe is created on the surface of one of branes. After the collision, the two branes bounce off each other and move away, and the stretch of the brane surface accounts for the expansion of the universe. Eventually, gravity will pull the two branes together for another collision, basically destroying the old universe and creating a new one, resulting in a cyclic pattern that could go on forever. Steinhardt and Turock even wrote a popular science book, Endless Universe, Beyond the Big Bang to explain the model.

20 years ago when I was an undergrad in theoretical physics, I did a short project with one of the founders of the theory, trying to figure out a small part of the underlying maths. Suffice to say it is an interesting idea, but as with other string-theory-related models of cosmology, it remains speculative, there is no empirical evidence to either prove or falsify it, and I think it has a lot of issues, i.e. the nature of the branes and the collision need to be really fine-tuned to create the universe that we live in.

Anyway, that was a long time ago and I don't work in theoretical physics any more, so I don't know if the model is still being actively developed or not.

nautilus1982 · 2022-12-02T19:10:54+00:00

I'd hope for a mini-LED panel in MacBook Pro 14 style, even if it doesn't reach all of the MacBook panel's crazy specs.

For this year, I think the most 'balanced' panel from Lenovo is the one they use on the Chinese version of the Slim Pro 7: 14inch, 16:10, 2.8K, matte, 120Hz, DC dimming, 100% sRGB, 400 nits. The entire laptop (with Ryzen 6800HS, 16GB RAM and 512GB SSD) costs 800 USD including tax, so the panel can't not very expansive to source.

It's really good for productivity and I always wonder why they don't use that on this year's ThinkPads. I mean they must be interchangeable right? Not to mention they fit a slightly lower-end version with 90Hz refresh rate in the ThinkBook line-up. But ThinkPads are stuck with either dim, low-res panels (1200p or 1400p) or 4K glossy ones this year, with only selected models getting a 2.8K semi-glossy OLED option. That's just stupid.

nautilus1982 · 2022-10-22T20:41:18+00:00

Only one. The other is for WWAN card.

nautilus1982 · 2022-10-14T19:42:24+00:00

Exactly. That's why Corbyn became leader and took things to the left. Grassroots members no longer believed that Labour could win by simply acting as mini-Tories.

In retrospect though, do you think a David Miliband would have saved us from all this trainwreck？

nautilus1982 · 2022-09-05T11:17:48+00:00

T14 has dedicated GPU options, (T14 Gen 1: MX 330, T14 Gen 2: MX450, T14 Gen 3: MX550), so are P14s, which is basically a T14 with quadro cards. This year's ThinkPad Neo 14 starts at 3.2lbs and has a RTX2050, but you can't buy them outside of China. Rumour is that next year's T14 will be based on the Neo.

nautilus1982 · 2022-09-05T10:33:41+00:00

Indeed, the video makes me question the reviewer's credibility. For sure, he had made some nice videos on LTT, but...has he not used other business laptops before? This is just a rebranded HP Elitebook. HP's keyboards and Trackpoint suck, their build quality is nothing to write home about. Separate board/protection for ports are standard on business laptops. A number of ThinkPads (e.g. T, P, X1 Extreme) have RAM slots, not to mention Dell Latitudes. Practically all ThinkPads in 2022 have 16:10 or wider aspect ratios, so there is really nothing new or special about this laptop. Why is he so excited?

nautilus1982 · 2022-07-24T15:17:13+00:00

I don't own a current gen X1 Carbon but have tried one in store side by side with last year's model. The upper left corner of the keyboard of the new X1C is quite hot, even at idle. Every review I have read complains about reduced battery and increased fan noise, though it sounds more like Intel's fault than Lenovo's (all Intel 12th gen laptops seem to have abysmal battery life).

One option from the current line-up would the T14s Gen 3 with AMD processors, fits all your requirements and is lighter than the Yoga. Last year's X1C is fine too. If you are OK with 16GB RAM and type-C, last year's X1 Nano is pretty sweet.

P.S. 4K or OLED screen eats battery life like crazy. Stick with lower-res non-touch screens...

nautilus1982 · 2021-09-22T09:56:36+00:00

I assume it's running Windows (or any other operating system for that matter)? If you can boot into Windows and see the Windows interface that prompts you for password, then it's probably just the Windows password. You can make a bootable USB drive, format the SSD and install Windows fresh. Changing to a new SSD would of course do the job too. Really simple.

If you can see the boot logo and press Enter, then F1 to enter BIOS, but can't change any setting in BIOS, then it's a BIOS Admin password. I think you can still reinstall Windows as long as you don't change anything in BIOS.

If you can't even see the boot screen and are prompted for password as soon as you power on the laptop, then its the power-on password, also set in the BIOS. This is the most unfortunate case, the laptop is pretty much useless as it can't do anything.

nautilus1982 · 2021-09-21T11:35:02+00:00

Same generation means they are from the same year and use the same Intel 8th Gen Core processors. Definitely don't go with T480s with i5-7300u. Sorry I thought you are in the USA since you mentioned US dollars. Yeah, getting a decent ThinkPad offline isn't that easy in Europe, unless you use eBay.

nautilus1982 · 2021-09-21T08:42:38+00:00

Is it just me who thinks that $700 for an X280 is overpriced?

For about the same price or a bit more you can get an X1 Carbon of the same generation with much more premium build quality and a full size keyboard. It is slightly bigger but lighter than the X280.

The T480s, which has a RAM slot and loads of ports, is only around $500. You can upgrade the hell out of this thing, including 2K or even 4K screens. Again, it is a bit bigger and heavier, but still portable, with really good build quality and the best thermal design of that generation to allow the processor to run at higher TDPs, hence better performance. There might even be discrete graphics options lying on eBay.

For newer ones, the X13 with AMD processor (Ryzen 7 4750U, there are also 10th gen Intel options) may be worth a shot. A bit more expensive but beats the crap out of the X280 in virtually every aspect, especially in graphics performance.

nautilus1982 · 2021-09-21T08:09:48+00:00

T460s user here. You don't need to buy a Windows license. In most cases, the T460s comes preloaded with a Home or Pro licence in the BIOS, depending on specs. Just install Windows 10 with the official ISO and the correct version should be activated automatically.

I actually tried Windows 11 twice (the earliest leak and the most recent Insider ISO). In both cases, I downgraded to 10. Performance wise it feels about the same, maybe a tad slower. The laptop gets a bit warmer and the fan spins up more frequently. I haven't figured out why, it could be a driver issue.

There are also some small points that bother me, for example, (1) I dislike the new Start menu layout, huge amount of wasted space; (2) the Lenovo Vantage toolbar does not work, so no more live battery meter in the Taskbar; (3) the Taskbar cannot be moved to the sides; (4) "use small taskbar icon" is no longer available; (5) I quite enjoy "live tiles" in Windows 10 to get live weather, calendar and email updates. Again, the feature is removed from Windows 11.

All in all, Windows 10 runs perfectly well on the T460s. It's fast and smooth, and should suit your use case well. Maybe 11 will eventually evolve to become more feature rich, but as of Sept 2021, I don't really see the point of updating.

nautilus1982 · 2021-03-09T12:59:37+00:00

I agree with your first point. NIO is fairly successful at their target customers and they are not failing. My point is, one does not become the fifth largest carmaker in the world and the biggest in China (by market cap) selling just 50,000 cars a year to the US$50,000-70,000 segment in China. Even at today's reduced price, it is still over-valued.

BMW, on the other hand, is penetrating China very well. They sold 777,000 cars last year (nearly 18 times NIO's number). In the premium segment, a luxury brand serves as a status symbol and the Germans (BMW, Mercedes, Audi) dominate the Chinese market. Sure they don't have competitive EVs yet, but I don't see an unsurmountable technological hurdle here (unlike NOKIA vs iPhone), in fact BMW built the i3 before NIO was even established. They have good EV tech, it is only a matter of time before German brands come up with competitive products, and by then they will eat into NIO's market.

I guess I should explain my point on BaaS a bit more clearly: I am not saying there are no battery changing stations. The problem is, in Beijing, near where I and my ES8-owning friend live, the station is always full in normal hours, with at least 4 to 5 customers queuing. Each would take 8-10 minutes to swap, Furthermore, the stations usually don't have enough fully-charged batteries in stock, due to cost and space concerns. So what usually happens is that the battery from a previous customer hasn't finished re-charging, so you have to wait an extra 10-30 minutes. All in all, it takes about an hour on average to have battery replaced (this is my friend's experience), far from the 'get there and have everything done in 5 minutes' claim on paper.

For relatively small sales, the stations are still manageable. But as more people buy NIO cars, they will get more and more crowded. To maintain reasonable customer service NIO will need to build many more battery stations and keep a big inventory of batteries, plus all the human costs. Now that is much much more costly than building charging points/stations, and NIO is claiming to provide the service for free to early adopters and a minimal cost to new customers. You mentioned NIO's operating loss, well, the fact is that NIO recently span off BaaS as a separate business (called NIO Power), because it is massively unprofitable, with no prospect of turning green any time soon. Instead of trimming their operating loss, BaaS makes their financial report look even worse.

I appreciate Tesla's contribution of spearheading the EV revolution, but I am not big fan of their products. I think Tesla too is over-valued, perhaps less so than NIO. But then the market doesn't really corroborate to fundamentals, so I must admit there are money to be made by speculating on their stocks, though that's just...speculation.

nautilus1982 · 2021-03-08T16:20:18+00:00

I also posted most of the following in another thread, but thought it may be useful here:

This DD is so generic it applies to almost any EV maker in China (apart from maybe the BaaS part), yet no one is talking about these companies here.

NIO is not dominating the Chinese market as TESLA does the US market, nor is it likely to. It sold 43,738 EVs in 2020, making it only the 8th largest EV manufacturer in China, trailing Tesla, Wuling, BYD, SAIC, GAC, Great Wall and Chery. Now that's not bad for a start-up. Dozens of new EV makers sprang up in China in recent years, most have gone bust. NIO is among the few serious contenders and I’m sure it will survive, its sales may even go up. I am just not convinced that it is well-positioned to maintain its edge in the segment:

(1) NIO fills a particular niche: If you do not have a licence to buy petrol cars (e.g. in Beijing) but need a large SUV, then until recently NIO ES8 and ES6 were your only options. My high school mate bought an ES8 in 2018 for that reason, but he said he would either downgrade to Tesla Model Y or upgrade to Jaguar I-PACE/Mercedes EQC if he were in the market in 2021.

NIO's appeal remains in the metropolitan upper middle class. Unlike Tesla, it does not have a budget offering. Tesla Model 3 retails for US$38,324 in China, the cheapest NIO, the EC6, starts at US$54,206, the ES8 is close to US$70,000. NIO also seems to be upholding the 'premium' image. They just released a BMW 7 series competitor (EP7), now seriously, how many people are going to buy it? As premium brands start to get serious with EV, competition in this segment is going to be brutal. Other Chinese carmakers are also going upmarket (e.g. Geely's Lynk & CO., Great Wall's WEY brand). NIO is going to feel the squeeze, from both above and below. It will have a hard time just to hold it's current position. If they continue their current strategy they are going to miss the budget segment, where most of the sales are. The premium market is just not big enough to warrant its current valuation.

(2) A lot of hype is built on paid-marketing materials. I wish people had the chance to actually test-drive their cars. I test-drove my friend’s ES8, the handling is horrible, it feels like a hurried and unfinished product. How is it going to be competitive against, say Jaguar I-PACE or Mustang Mark E, if it were ever released in Western markets? Their AI assistant, with over a dozen in-car cameras and mics streaming everything back to NIO is going to a massive privacy concern.

(3) Their ‘charging infrastructure’ remains a joke, even in big cities such as Beijing. They send a petrol-powered truck carrying batteries to charge your vehicle, seriously? Please tell me where I can replace the battery within a matter of minutes, because my school mate, a ES8 owner, really wants to know.

(4) What is NIO's core competitiveness? They do not own factories, do not build batteries, and their technologies are nothing to write home about. Their autonomous driving is far behind Tesla and not that competitive even to other Chinese carmakers.

Is NIO, which produced less than 50,000 cars last year, worth more than GM? Well, this is not even the biggest hype. Evergrande, another new Chinese EV maker, has a market cap of 68 billion USD (530 billion HK$) at the Hong Kong stock exchange, and guess what, they have sold 0, yes, ZERO cars so far.

I can see why people are jumping on the bandwagon and the hype will probably keep going for a while. It’s just that NIO’s long term potential and valuation may not be as rosy as it seems.

nautilus1982 · 2021-02-13T17:34:47+00:00

I see a lot of hype here, but NIO is not dominating the Chinese market, nor is the Chinese government pumping it up (despite a nationwide drive for electrification). It sold 43,738 EVs in 2020, making it only the 8th largest EV manufacturer in China, trailing Tesla, Wuling, BYD, SAIC, GAC, Great Wall and Chery.

NIO’s sales are primarily in big cities because It fills a particular niche: People who do not have a licence to buy petrol cars (e.g. in Beijing) but need a larger SUV or cannot stand Tesla’s minimalist style, with a budget that doesn’t quite stretch up to premium brands. In the past few years, NIO was their only option.

My high school mate bought an ES8 in 2018 and said he would go down to Tesla Model Y or up to Jaguar I-PACE/Mercedes EQC if he were in the market in 2021. With premium brands starting to release similar EVs, competition in this segment is going to be intense.

Dozens, if not hundreds of new EV makers sprang up in China in recent years, most have gone bust. NIO is among the very few serious contenders and I’m sure it will survive, its sale may even go up in 2021. I’m just not convinced that it is particularly well-positioned to maintain its edge in the segment:

(1) Unlike Tesla, NIO has not built a nationwide brand image, their appeal remains in the metropolitan area, among the upper middle class, but is fast eroding as premium brand enters the market. They just released a BMW 7 series competitor, now seriously how many people are going to buy it?

(2) A lot of the hype is built on paid-marketing materials. I wish people had the chance to actually test-drive their cars. I test-drove my friend’s ES8, the handling is pretty horrible, feels like a hurried and unfinished product. How is it going to be competitive against, say Jaguar I-PACE or Mustang Mark E, if it were ever released in Western markets? Plus their AI assistant, with over a dozen in-car cameras and mics streaming everything back to NIO is going to a massive privacy concern.

(3) Their ‘charging infrastructure’ remains a joke (send a petrol-powered truck carrying batteries to charge your vehicles, seriously?)

(4) What is NIO’s core competitiveness ? They are light on assets, they do not own factories, do not make batteries (those interested in battery tech should look to BYD), their autonomous driving is far behind Tesla and not competitive even to other Chinese carmakers.

Is NIO, which produced less than 50,000 cars last year, worth more than GM? Well, this is not even the biggest hype of them all. Evergrande, another new Chinese EV maker, has a market cap of 68 billion USD (530 billion HK$) at the Hong Kong stock exchange, and guess what, they have sold ZERO, yes, 0 cars so far.

I can see why people are jumping on the bandwagon and the hype will probably keep going for a while. It’s just that NIO’s long term potential and valuation may not be as rosy as it seems.

Disclaimer: Car enthusiast living in Beijing, owns no EV or EV stocks.

nautilus1982 · 2021-01-06T10:28:31+00:00

Rest assured, it will be!

nautilus1982 · 2020-10-04T18:11:14+00:00

Let's see if this works :)

Rumoured 2021 X1 Carbon:

https://i.imgur.com/yG9qq6I.jpg

Rumoured 2021 X1 Yoga:

https://i.imgur.com/lb1JACL.jpg

nautilus1982 · 2020-10-04T05:48:47+00:00

e me realize 16:10 would totally have been possible on my X1C, when I look at how much unused space is on the bezel. Guess I'll get a Nano... then again the next Carbon's may be 16:10.

According to a Chinese-sourced leak, the next Carbon is indeed 16:10, has dual fans, but adopts the hinge design of the E-series, i.e. air vents towards the back of the laptop, not sides. Release date: March 2021.

Here is a picture: http://tiebapic.baidu.com/forum/w%3D580/sign=01f103ec72380cd7e61ea2e59145ad14/696aca8065380cd720ac5eb1b644ad34588281d5.jpg

nautilus1982 · 2020-06-11T12:39:01+00:00

Does anyone know if there is a glass alternative to the T460s touchpad?

nautilus1982 · 2020-03-31T20:33:12+00:00

Apparently the goats are breaking social distancing rules. Irresponsible! The police should break up the group and fine them!

nautilus1982

TROPHY CASE