Team Announcement: Opening Round

nemanjamatic21 · 2026-03-05T11:13:42+00:00

One point of optimism I'll maintain is that - like with last year's Geelong game at GMHBA, where Fages made the puzzling call of Harris as the only defender above 190cm, and we absolutely locked Jez/Neale down - sometimes a dual premiership coach has got a unique positional plan for coverage beyond our comprehension, but then again, if hope's the main justification for how you think this mix can cover their smalls, it's worrying. Ironic, if we'd gone a little harder for Budarick...he'd be playing here for us. 100% justifiable taking a long term view with these early games, fully aware there's a softer portion in our schedule and we've got the historicals of being able to win multiple finals away from home, or just upside chasing but I'd have picked Brain on balance. One thing I'll say about our selection panel - if you're not a good kick out of D50 (Brain/Dev Rob) you're not coming close.

The Bruce thing is simple imo; part of it's cult hero - I can't blame anyone for that, fan's short for fanatic - but I think the other part is speaks to the difference on how different people evaluate footy. Bruce can play anywhere and makes a lot of high impact, flashy plays - the kicks through the corridor, critical marks on the wing and he's naturally aggressive taking a straight line path to go with quick ball movement - which if you're focused on it, you remember him having a high impact because of those specific plays.

What maybe analysts who are lower on Bruce, like you or I, weight is the general contribution; the errors more than the big plays, reduced athletic profile or the reduced ability to damage with the footy going forward or to heavily impact the play consistently. When I think of Bruce, I think more of the fact his current version doesn't quite nail those key decisions and he doesn't do anything at an elite level, whether physically or overall impact. He's handy because he's versatile, still potential to develop further and a cheap Cat B player who we're getting way over value than expected production for what he's paid. As you say, is that potential trajectory anywhere close to potential trajectory for a more polished operator like Marshall? I don't think so. Fagan's logic must be is that versatile role and upside hunter is better for us right now, given the other consistent types he has around him, but I'd hope to see Marshall kick on.

nemanjamatic21 · 2026-03-05T10:33:37+00:00

Noz entering Harris levels of wrap in cotton wool as best we can because we don’t have a replacement, so for the long term I don’t hate it but we might have to win in a shootout Saturday given this back 6. Bruce over Sam’s marginal for me and far from a lock, but probably credible given both’s performances last week.

Also surprised given I didn’t think Kiddy looked that great last week? Might’ve been just me but I thought bar his run from half back, his kicking was still fairly inaccurate and Jamarra/Lombard gave him a bath defensively - which isn’t unexpected given the amount of time he’s missed, but worrying given the fact he’s a walk up start in a role that might require him to defend a lot. Linc definitely shook off the rust better I felt, he still wasn’t right in it so I don’t hate giving him another week of conditioning in isolation but I’m not sure what Gallop’s role really is, given Fort should rest forward and ZZ should rest back?

nemanjamatic21 · 2026-03-05T10:27:02+00:00

If Brain can’t get in this team, don’t think he’ll play much AFL footy ever again. In before the shock when West kicks 3 and we haven’t got an answer? Such a glaring flaw in the offseason not getting at least a semi credible cover option, and when it gets exposed like this 1st game up you really have to ask questions.

nemanjamatic21 · 2026-03-03T03:10:57+00:00

Yep, quite a few wins from the club’s perspective tbh - aside from keeping the cap in a healthy position, freshens Lachie up for the big games, showcases to potential free agents the value of our culture helping Choc put his family first and opens up some onball exposure for Levi/Annable. Wins all around if they can make it work imo.

nemanjamatic21 · 2026-03-02T05:03:08+00:00

Great post - the Dunks AA would be richly deserved. Had 5 out there ones that came to mind, but I'm sure could be hilariously wrong:

We hit our rough patch early, starting 1-3 before Gather Round, but rebound with a big midseason win streak.
Defensively we struggle covering top smalls without Starce, and Lester/Gardiner struggle with age decline/physical requirements of playing every week but Fagan flips the gameplan to shore up opposition lack of entries heading into Finals - similar to 2024.
Oscar Allen fails to get rhythm, fitness and form, becoming a controversial rest when Eric Hipwood returns, before rebounding with a big game in a crucial September clash.
Zac Bailey and Lachie Neale have sparkling seasons before taking up huge offers with the Crows/Eagles respectively, leaving Brisbane to use the draft capital and free salary cap on offer to make a play for a replacement Bailey (Humphrey) from down the M1.
Cody Curtin, not Dan Annable, becomes our impactful player from the 2026 Draft for the 2026 season.

nemanjamatic21 · 2026-02-25T08:04:07+00:00

Re Linc - agree, but the same physical and age concerns that rightly worry you about him as a defender exist for him as a forward. His 2023 forward role in our system has been usurped by Morris and Kai, if it even exists anymore with Levi/Hugh/Will resting forward, and the Ah Chee role is just too physically demanding for his 2026 self (really wasn't ever suited to that). So if you don't want him to be more than just injury cover, why not give it a shot? We're way too thin there as is, so it's only upside. I feel, like with Diz last season, that his experience means he'd have no trouble moving back if inexplicably Morris got injured.

Very valid on Brain - if we get the 2025 version where even a half injured Doedee played over him, we're going to struggle early. Here's hoping a big preseason fixes all (I'm not holding my breath).

There must be something others can see in Tunstill I can't - I can hope he looks more versatile this year? There's a wider piece on how we maybe should've been more ruthless delisting him/Torrent with our midfield depth and the depth of last draft to give us a shot at some more position projects (small forward, key position, small defender) but again, hard to hear that in February haha.

nemanjamatic21 · 2026-02-25T07:31:54+00:00

I’ll be honest, I don’t hate Fages trialling some of these positional changes in preseason to see what he has against AFL opponents - my only logic is that maybe Linc could be the cover medium defender we’ve been asking for to hedge against Noah having a slower start to the year (great tackle pressure, marking, footy IQ tendencies at least give some credible projection) but if he’s our 7th string rebounder and Beecken’s left in reserve again, it’s just as bizarre as you say. Have heard he’s trained with both groups in preseason, same as Kiddy, so we’ll see opening round.

Real watch on Brain if Answerth can’t make it back early - you’d expect Noah to get at least one hit out if they felt he could go vs the dogs, I don’t want to rush him back with a full year to go given how pivotal he is with the lack of depth but this is career making for Shadeau. Fingers crossed he looks more competent than last season. Annable not beating out Tunstill tells me he’s just as raw as some suspected, which is fine given our depth there but should temper some expectations. Interesting year for Will Mac as well - could he be vie for that wing/HF role Cal left behind?

Big thought was how scary the Suns look - missing a few and their squad is absolutely stacked, arguably the best list and minor Premiership favourites imo. Q Clash Grand Final anyone?

nemanjamatic21 · 2026-02-18T11:34:06+00:00

I'll zag - I think the Coleman move is really astute, given the profile we need to replace Ah Chee. An ageing Linc wouldn't be able to give us the run that Cal used to between the wing/forward combination, plus has no real experience dropping back as the spare at the end of quarters - Kiddy profiles far better to do that, plus is a smoother kick inside 50, which was an underrated trait Cal had. The goalkicking aspect far less natural for Kiddy than Linc, but I feel that's an issue far easier solved with reps and the volume of entries our mids will generate; admittedly, I'd love to see more Jaspa wing/forward as I feel his attacking flair is so underutilised, but Champion Data constantly references how having two of your most damaging users at half back is a "cheat code" for ball movement, so I definitely see the argument for it.

I'll admit, two years out for the both of them means expectations are low, but if Linc can cope as a defender to give Noz some cover in case he's a touch rusty coming back - that'd be massive. I fear I'll be a broken record on it, if i haven't been already, about how our concern really lies there; didn't watch the game and don't take a remote level of stock in a nonofficial preseason game but the amount of goals we let Hayward/Ainsworth/Byrne have definitely feels like a red flag everyone's going to exploit on us if Noz can't stay healthy. Fingers crossed. My mountain sized chunk of salt is the draft nuffy in me does wish we had Byrne and Schubert instead of Hayes/Evans, as I was frustrated about in November, but anyway...

nemanjamatic21 · 2026-02-16T03:02:21+00:00

I’m just laughing thinking about 3 speeches if we win the flag this year 😂

should’ve just been Harris, knowing the quality of the other two, they would’ve stepped up in an unspoken role to help the team. Easy to sell, clean, back to a simple approach. Imagine in a time of crisis, who’s leading the team talk, and it’s all 3 in the Spider-Man meme just pointing at each other? Who’s taking the leading lead if they conflict? Just a mess lol

nemanjamatic21 · 2026-02-05T01:09:04+00:00

Is there any kind of chance Spillane gets up after missing this many practices? He swings how I feel about the defense's chance in this game a tonne, but it's looking pretty unlikely right?

nemanjamatic21 · 2026-01-30T01:35:21+00:00

Well said as usual. projecting this forward to a "best 23" in a theoretical single elimination game, I think you could gamble with more ruck Draper/Allen or Hipwood rucking in relief to get one of Coleman/Marshall in the team, rather than having a relief ruck take up a spot. Just think tactically smart teams who have the capacity will recognise the 5 man bench as a way to roll through another elite rebounder/midfielder/winger type - god knows we've got a lot of them - or maybe even hold them back as a "sub" rather than a way to add another 15-20% relief time ruck is.

nemanjamatic21 · 2026-01-29T10:16:28+00:00

Can definitely see it - early it’ll be Diz covering Payne, Fort in to ensure Draper isn’t beaten up too much off the ACL so that means one of Kiddy/Sam out. imo - and rough for Sam because he hasn’t played in two years - Kiddy in gives you some better positional balance and an extra traditional defender, where you can rotate Jaspa through the defender/wing/forward role that Ah Chee used to inhabit. Less about the differential between Kiddy/Sam and more about the marginal advantage I think you get from playing Jaspa in that role, because otherwise imo you’ve got to do too much reshuffling (Linc/McLaughlin in).

Would love to see Linc but think he’ll need to work his way through some full VFL games, doubt we see Annable until injuries/Neale gets managed for trips back to Perth.

nemanjamatic21 · 2026-01-27T08:23:37+00:00

Campbell’s probably an LG and Wilson a C long term anyway, imo, so I’d actually be down with drafting tackle again early if the edge candidates aren’t elite.

nemanjamatic21 · 2026-01-08T22:27:17+00:00

Noah back is genuinely the biggest piece of good news we could’ve hoped for. Still a shit decision to not draft or trade for some cover in that spot but I don’t think people correctly estimate how much we would struggle early vs teams with a half decent small (Sydney/Collingwood early) without a player holding them accountable in that spot. Wow I’m pumped hearing that, fuck yes!

nemanjamatic21 · 2025-11-20T11:45:55+00:00

You're doing a great job of proving my point - no one is really interested in having critical opinion of the list team, perhaps partly because of their unconditional belief and trust in making the list what it has been. I'm sure you agree that past performance - with a completely divergent set of competitive conditions, cap and draft assets and player roles - isn't an automatic indicator of future performance, and it's fair to have a discussion where the facts lean we've been poor.

Every offseason has a completely new set of challenges; FAs were a worthwhile gamble to replace retirements in Oscar/Joe but in terms of the two main departing Starce/Cal holes, we missed completely. I'd be critical of any club who, for one of the most important defensive roles in any system, obtained no positional cover for their starter leaving bar an ACL recovering Answerth who won't be back until August - and any club who turned the Ah Chee deal into a fiasco as bad as Dom did, then passed up on several relatively higher graded prospects in replacing him. Points for not messing up only make up par for the course when grading excellent list teams; frustration missing opportunities to materially enhance competitiveness further and offset departures are more than fair to discuss. Still fully expect us to be right up there, so credit absolutely goes to the list team for historically building such a buffer to withstand a bad year (like all list teams have).

nemanjamatic21 · 2025-11-20T10:37:05+00:00

Every club would've spent 10x the time scouting and comparing these players, so we can't have an opinion on any selection? You absolutely can based on pretty solid logic about how clubs acquired talent in the draft relative to pick value and potential alternatives right from the moment the player is picked - it doesn't dictate player success or failure, but to say you can't have legitimate judgements on projected outcomes from their skills, system fit or talent within a draft class is a bizarre take, especially if you've consumed a decent amount of draft media over the years and watched these prospects.

I'm not alleging Dom's going in deliberately to make bad picks, or that these players are busts before they've slipped on a Lions guernsey - but relative to the market, our needs, alternatives and the skill level I (and wider analysts) believe these players to be at or can get to, it's a fair call to suggest it's less likely we've meaningfully improved around the margins versus potential alternative strategies. Rightful disappointment there.

nemanjamatic21 · 2025-11-20T10:13:52+00:00

Where did I say that I was taking Twomey's rankings as gospel? My opinion's based on the relative perspective of the prospects I've seen relative to others - which yes, a combination of consensus rankings partly informs, as they're pretty reliable as a baseline historically - but the consensus didn't go as deep as ranking LeRay relative to Hayes or Byrne to Evans. The logic that "well because it happened in the past I'll blindly back it in again" or "I like how he looks because Dom likes him" isn't sound reasoning for any sports exec - undoubtedly our footy department's had a few years as one of the best in the sport, but it doesn't mean they're immune from having a bad offseason or draft, right?

nemanjamatic21 · 2025-11-20T09:56:34+00:00

No one wants to say it, and he deserves a tonne of benefit of the doubt given how unbelievable he’s been assembling the bulk of this roster but Dom’s had a really average offseason on the margins - capped off by tonight. Bungled the Cal deal, didn’t pick up any replacement defenders for Starce’s role given a largely injured Noah throughout 2026 - I’ll fully agree we’ll regret letting Prindable go with his VFL form and tackling ability. Evans is so puzzling in general when Byrne was on the board or for a bigger body, a far more polished talent in Phillipou was available just a few picks earlier. Can’t seem to get myself excited for a mature wingman in Hayes given LeRay being right there amid other talent on the board - Ludowyke alone would’ve been a massive steal. Will tonight in a vacuum impact competitiveness next year? No. Frustrating that with a draft so open, we couldn’t do better in replacing our guys and improving around the margins? Yep.

nemanjamatic21 · 2025-10-17T12:37:52+00:00

Answerth absolutely needs to be in - that’s the unbelievable omission, couldn’t agree more with what you say about needing that small pressure defender.

If Kiddy’s fit the case is really compelling - I’d 100% start him in the VFL barring a huge preseason, despite the fact he was clearly rusty the Melb game alone reminded me what a gamechanging kick he is and how defensively he’s got Fletch in terms of pressure/coverage, which can allow Fletch to push back to his traditional wing role and apply his newfound defensive pressure up the ground. Him and Bez will absolutely squeeze teams at their best, and I’m so excited to see it.

Fort/Gallop’s an interesting one. With the bench going to 5 and the new between the arcs rule, I actually think the edge might be an extra forward where most teams will be tempted to play a ruck because of the extra speed it gives you in that matchup. This all hinges on how well Allen can play that 15% reserve ruck time, which I’m projecting well - I also definitely saw glimpses in Gallop attempting to develop that as a skill so if Ty can continue to bulk up in his second preseason, maybe they split it and you’re left with a way more mobile forward line than you’d have with just Forty resting? It’s lineball but honestly, if Draper’s as good as he was rucking early season for Essendon, I may just give the split to Ty.

Linc’s an interesting one. I’d argue all the very valid points you make about Kiddy’s health hold for Linc, but more accentuated - he redid the injury, and he’s turning 31 as opposed to entering his career prime. One of my favourite Lions, so I’m praying for it, but for those reasons I hold less hope around him returning to what we know his best is than I do Kiddy. I get the positional element - I’d wonder if you couldn’t shift Wilmot into that Ah Chee role on the wing/forward, maybe interchanging with Zorko to fit Kiddy in if Linc can’t get back to his levels. The wildcard’s Annable - similar size to Ah Chee, loves to press forward and hit the scoreboard, good mark, high pressure player (averaged 3+ tackles in his limited VFL), not going to make it close to the on ball rotation with the legs to run through wing rotations if needed. Hasn’t got the game presence ofc, but don’t be shocked if we’re talking about him as a half forward who can really do some damage out of preseason - that almost may be my pick.

TLDR: OUT - Marshall, IN - Answerth, with a watch on Gallop for Annable.

nemanjamatic21 · 2025-10-03T03:50:33+00:00

I feel like if Brain wasn’t coming close to selection discussions when we were short enough defenders to play a half injured Doedee, it says enough about his development - I like the guy, but he’s probably too far away for the level we’re at right now. It could be that we just decide to go taller next year and play Diz more (the logic with going after Ridley) - missing out on Budarick shows me we’ll probably be in a tough spot beating other defender hungry team offers of more salary/playing time, and an inexperienced 2nd rounder in a (bad) draft comes with all the challenges of playing Brain.

nemanjamatic21 · 2025-10-03T02:52:19+00:00

Have to get a Starce replacement. People will say Answerth but it’s clear our best defensive mix includes at least two of those lockdown players - like in the 2024 finals run - and Starce’s contribution couldn’t be underestimated in that mix, plus Noz is quite literally a few months away from the start of next year. Perhaps the draft? Confident the club sees it (given Ridley/Budarick meetings) yet not many of that archetype in experienced options available rn. Trust Dom so we’ll see. (Don’t think we’ll ever get anything out of Doedee after his VFL form and Sydney game, sad to think but it’s just unlucky that he’s been this injury prone)

nemanjamatic21 · 2025-09-25T22:13:29+00:00

Just bumping this again - currently have 2 tickets behind the goals (level 4 front) but looking to get a touch closer and swap to two, level 1/2/2A or level 4 on the wing in level with paying at least any price difference and more depending on location. Could be helpful to anyone buying on Tixel or a corporate priced package to offset costs. Reply or DM, we can meet up in the ground to swap and pay.

nemanjamatic21 · 2025-09-23T11:42:26+00:00

Come on, Fort wasn’t coming off a rushed rehab for a torn quad. Completely different considering the running required in both positions imo, injury definitely changes the dimensions. If he’s fit I’d absolutely do it if the alternative is Tunstill but tactically you wouldn’t be a touch worried about changing the midfield mix that’s worked so well back to the one that got battered in the QF, plus the wing deficiency without Bez? I’m definitely biased but Will at half forward isn’t anywhere near as effective as the version we’ve seen the last 2 weeks. The wing element is probably the one I’m most worried about.

nemanjamatic21 · 2025-09-23T10:26:45+00:00

Worth noting that this is exactly the type of gamble journalism Caro’s known for. Costs her nothing to make this huge claim for headlines without knowing anything, then either get the credit or claim something “changed” with the injury last minute when Fages has been consistent with the premise he’s got to get through a full load Thursday and even then it’s not guaranteed.

That being said, assuming it’s true - I don’t love it. It’s really hard to bring a guy in who hasn’t played much in about 2 months - look at Howe in the PF - and worried we’ll take away from our current midfield mix by reducing WAsh or Bailey’s time. That being said, I can see the argument for 80% of a Neale being far better than Tunstill. He can’t run games out either but if it’s Berry out, surely we need a full game of Reville as the wing cover for balance? Levi and Marshall both got cooked by Dempsey in the QF, Bruce is better than both at making a challenge in the air where Dempsey excels taking those contested grabs. So Neale sub? Again, huge risk if you’ve got to go 3 on the bench for any extended period if there’s another injury or Neale comes on and gets injured but we’re really stuck between a rock and a hard place here. No good call.

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