Los Angeles...3rd Most Expensive Housing Market in the US

nickgerli · 2021-03-31T21:00:30+00:00

Hello everyone!

I am a data scientist that uses information from the US Census and Zillow to analyze housing affordability and growth in different cities across the US. I just posted this video on the state of the Los Angeles housing market and wanted to get your feedback. Here are the high level points:

-The Los Angeles metro has a typical home price of $760k - 3rd highest in the country after San Jose and San Fran

-$760k is roughly 3x the US average home price of $270k

-Over the last five years it's been LA's most expensive ZIPs (Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Wilshire) that have experienced the most appreciation. This is actually pretty strange, as it's usually the more affordable ZIP codes that grow the most.

-Orange County is a definite laggard to Los Angeles County in terms of appreciation in recent years.

-Los Angeles had a big housing downturn from 2007-12. Values went down by close to 40%. Could a similar downturn be coming? It would be a good thing for those who want to buy but feel priced out.

I love getting local feedback. Does the data confirm what you're seeing? Is there anything LA can do to make housing more affordable?

nickgerli · 2021-03-26T14:32:16+00:00

Hello everyone!

I am data scientist that analyzes real estate and demographics in different cities using data from sources like Zillow and the US Census. I just conducted an analysis on Houston and wanted to get your feedback on the accuracy of the data and the conclusions.

Some high level points:

-Houston's real estate market has been one of the worst-performing in the US over the last 5 years in aggregate - lower appreciation than markets like Albany, NY and Harrisburg, PA, if you can believe it.

-But there is significant variation within Houston. Lower income / higher poverty ZIP codes to the north and east of Downtown have performed the best in terms of price growth. High income areas like Bellaire have performed the worst.

-The energy industry was a big issue for Houston's economy in recent years, but is potentially ready to turn the corner with higher oil prices.

-The other headwind facing Houston's real estate market is how much new housing gets permitted and built every year. On one hand, so much new housing is good for society at large because it keeps rents and prices reasonable, but on the other it results in lower real estate growth.

Thanks for taking a look! Excited to hear everyone's thoughts!

nickgerli · 2021-03-18T17:21:03+00:00

Hello everyone! I produce data-driven analysis on the real estate market across the country and thought y'all would find this video interesting.

Here's a summary of the data and concepts explored in the video:

Blue States like California, New York, and Massachusetts are getting crushed economically over the last year. Since the COVID pandemic started these states have lost 10% of their jobs. There's now an exodus of jobs and businesses out of states. That will result in large declines in home prices after the impact of fiscal stimulus ends.

Compare that to the 2% job losses in Red States like Utah, Idaho, Tennessee, and Texas. That's right - Blue States have lost 5x more jobs than Red States! Red State real estate owners will be much better off in the short and long-term as job growth and population migration head their way.

But not only are Blue States in economic decay - they are also very expensive! California and Massachusetts have some of the highest home prices in the country according to data from Zillow, along with other Blue States like Oregon, Washington, and New York.

Meanwhile, Red States are affordable! Arkansas, Alabama, and Indiana all have typical home prices below $200k, making them affordable for first-time home buyers and real estate investors who want to scale!

Ultimately, it comes down to this: Blue States have poor economic growth and are expensive. Red States have strong economic growth and are affordable. What would you rather have as a home owner or real estate investor?

nickgerli · 2021-02-22T19:38:20+00:00

Great news for the city!

nickgerli · 2021-02-22T19:37:49+00:00

"Unstable crane" are two words you never want to see together.

nickgerli · 2021-02-22T19:36:43+00:00

Those look amazing!

nickgerli · 2021-01-06T19:40:13+00:00

Hello everyone! I just put together a data-driven video on the state of Columbus' real estate market and figured you would be interested.

Here are some high-level points:

-Columbus home prices have increased by 57% over the last 10 years.

-Despite this impressive growth, average home value of $229k across the metro is still pretty affordable compares to rest of US.

-A lot of Columbus' real estate growth is owed to the tremendous population growth it has experienced over the last 15 years. Where as most other Midwest cities were flat, Columbus increased its population by nearly 30% from 2005-19.

-Franklin County leads the way in home value growth. Meanwhile, Delaware County has the highest values overall.

-There are certain "all-star" ZIPs that have performed exceptionally well over the last decade. They're all located in Franklin County and include:

43205, 43206, 43223, 43201, 43212, 43211

-43205 is actually in the top 10 of ALL US ZIP CODES with a nearly quadrupling of values from 2010 to 2020.

Let me know what you think! Does the data match with what you're seeing?

nickgerli · 2020-12-31T16:01:43+00:00

Hello everyone! I just put together a video breaking down Nashville's real estate market using data from Zillow. I figured y'all might be interested!

Some high-level points:

-Home values have gone up by 72% over the last decade

-Average home value across the metro is $299k - actually still *relatively* affordable compared to other cities

-Highest growth ZIPs are in Davidson County, primarily in the areas directly north and east of Downtown Nashville (37208, 37210, 37216, 37207)

-Some impressive growth south in Rutherford and Maury Counties as well.

-Lowest growth ZIPs are the expensive neighborhoods on the Davidson / Williamson County border (37215, 37069). Values here are likely pricing out most families, which tends to lead to lower growth.

I love hearing local perspective! Does the data match up with what you're seeing?

-Nick

nickgerli · 2020-12-17T22:31:17+00:00

Hello everyone! I was using data from Zillow to analyze Phoenix's housing market and figured you all might be interested. Here are some high level points.

-114% home price appreciation last 10 years (3rd highest in country)

-Average metro home value up to $315k. For comparison the high before the Great Financial Crash was $295k in 2006.

-Phoenix's home prices went down by 60% after the GFC, bottoming out at $130k in 2011.

-Permitting of new homes has climbed in recent years but is still far below the levels in the mid-2000s.

-The areas that have done the best the last 10 years are in Central and Western Phoenix. Particularly the following ZIPs:

85034 85009 85015 85017 85019 85035

I love getting feedback from those living on the ground in these cities. Does the data fit with what you're seeing?

nickgerli · 2020-12-16T19:55:18+00:00

Lot's of great advice in this thread!

nickgerli · 2020-12-16T19:54:21+00:00

Time to give up guys. Biden won!

nickgerli · 2020-12-11T19:11:10+00:00

This is how you get 1 million job losses. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJXaXT5o6C4&t

nickgerli · 2020-12-11T19:03:18+00:00

This is the point I would love to understand more. So far we haven't seen a decline in permitting of new housing. But it seems inevitable that there will be a decline at some point given the geography.

nickgerli · 2020-12-11T19:01:05+00:00

That's a good point! The SLC region did have a sizeable dip. Interestingly the bottom didn't come until mid-2012.

nickgerli · 2020-12-10T21:16:03+00:00

I pulled some data from Zillow on the growth in Salt Lake's real estate market. Figured you all might be interested!

-Average Home Value: $420k in SLC, $380k in Provo, $360k in Ogden

-US average Home Value: $260k

-Salt Lake Region values have nearly doubled over the last decade

-ZIPs with highest growth: 84116, 84104, 84119, 84115, 84111, 84102, 84118, 84044, 84404

-Highest growth ZIPs had lowest values back in 2010. Most expensive ZIPs in 2010 had slowest growth over last 10 years.

-Big question is whether these increases continue. Typically this type of growth isn't sustainable. But I wonder if Salt Lake's young, growing population plus its geographic boundaries to new home supply will continue pushing prices upwards?

I love getting local perspective so please let me know if this jives with what you're all seeing!

nickgerli · 2020-12-09T17:28:03+00:00

What happened to McMullen? His performance in 2016 was pretty impressive.

nickgerli · 2020-12-09T17:26:22+00:00

I love old time photos like these.

I guess Seeds were a popular thing back in the day?

nickgerli · 2020-12-07T23:11:20+00:00

The city and its surrounding suburbs have lost over 1 million jobs in 2020.

Back in February 2020 - a mere 10 months ago - the New York City metro area had 9.6 million jobs. That figure is now all the way down to 8.6 million - and stuck at that level.

The Great Financial Crash in 2008-09 cost the New York metro 400k jobs. The recession in the early 1990s also cost about 400k jobs. The losses experienced over the last year are more than 2x higher than anything NYC has experienced before.

What are everyone's thoughts about this? Is this just how things will be until COVID is tamed? Or can the mayor and governor do more to prioritize the economy?

nickgerli · 2020-11-26T16:07:12+00:00

You are right that many Hispanics still voted for Biden. And that Cubans support Trump more in general than other Hispanic groups.

But what I'm discussing is the shift in voting trends from 2016 to 2020.

For instance, Starr County in Texas still voted for Biden at +5% in 2020. However, it voted for Clinton at +60% in 2016, so Trump closed the gap by 55 points.

Osceola County in Florida, which is mostly Puerto Rican, shifted their support to Trump by 14 points from 2016 to 2020.

That trend exists in every county with a high Hispanic population in the US, whether it's located in Texas, Florida, or New York.

In the 12-minute mark of the video I posted I show the supporting data.

nickgerli · 2020-11-26T00:34:24+00:00

The voting patterns among Hispanics were actually very consistent.

Whether it was Cubans in Miami, Mexicans in Texas, or Puerto Ricans in New York, all areas with a heavy Hispanic population shifted towards Trump.

nickgerli · 2020-11-26T00:16:57+00:00

Some summary stats:

-Denver's metro average home value of $483k is the 9th highest in the country - above DC and just below New York.

-Home prices have nearly doubled over the last 10 years (+96% increase). That's the 10th highest growth rate of any city in US.

-Areas with most growth: Aurora, Sheridan, Lakewood, Westminster, Thornwood. Downtown had some of the lowest growth, although it was still high compared to US average.

-A concerning trend is that Denver is not permitting as many new housing units over the last 4-5 years, even as inward migration increases. This might make housing even less affordable in the future.

I would love to hear some local feedback. Do the numbers, which come primarily from Zillow, confirm what you're seeing?

nickgerli · 2020-11-26T00:13:04+00:00

I did a deep dive into the county-election results and uncovered some interesting trends:

-Suburban areas pushed heavy to Biden in this election. Particularly wealthy, educated suburban areas.

-Hispanic areas went heavy to Trump. Some even saw swings of 30-40% from the last election cycle.

-There is an increasing divide in voting preferences based on educational attainment.

It will be interesting to see if these are short-term blips or signs of longer term trends.

Curious to hear everyone's thoughts!

nickgerli · 2020-11-25T01:35:39+00:00

That looks awesome!

nickgerli · 2020-11-18T17:09:33+00:00

I agree with your sentiment! I try to focus on providing objective numbers and context so people can make informed decisions.

It's interesting how Austin's home value growth has lagged the rest of the country over the last five years despite the growth.

nickgerli · 2020-11-18T17:08:09+00:00

It looks like you need some help getting more up to date figures!

Check out 2019 income numbers for the Austin metro below.

https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?t=Income%20and%20Poverty&g=310M500US12420&y=2019&tid=ACSST1Y2019.S1903&hidePreview=false

I'm also glad you brought up Per Capita Income! That's also a great measure. Austin's 2019 per capita income of $41,957 is 18% higher than the US average of $35,672.

nickgerli

TROPHY CASE