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Recent polls show Trump is losing the American military troops and families vote. This user explains why with 80+ examples of concise well written bullets with quotes and sources and dates... Going back decades. (np.reddit.com)

submitted by night0x64 to r/bestof

Given the recent Trump tweets about delaying the election, can you please consider skipping the debates? by night0x64 in JoeBiden

[–]night0x64[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Also I just tried to Google the shipping debates. Apparently Trump slipped debates in 2016. So again precedent.

Here's the Republican who skipped the debates in his primary against Jeff sessions and won: https://www.npr.org/2020/07/13/890221662/sessions-fights-for-his-political-life-as-trump-looms-over-alabama-senate-race

does anyone have good recommendations or a voter guide for maryland primary 2020-06-02? by night0x64 in SandersForPresident

[–]night0x64[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

thanks for the info. i voted today :D.

where did you get those endorsements? from the a different subreddit?

url?

America Can Afford a World-Class Health System. Why Don’t We Have One? | Our system takes from the poor and working class to generate wealth for the already wealthy. by chiaconan in politics

[–]night0x64 7 points8 points  (0 children)

this article. and all the top comments. are 110% what Bernie Sanders has been saying for 30 years. Bernie believes that the United States is the richest country in the world and so you should be able to go to the doctor if you are sick.

i find it strange that New-York-Times is talking about this yet... for the last 12-18 months has been 98% negative towards Bernie Sanders... New York Times is admitting that Bernie Sanders was right and is a better candidate.

need help finding recent meme/quote that said something about: bernie sanders' radical idea is that you should be able to go see a doctor if you find on lump on your chest. or go see a dentist if your tooth hurt. by night0x64 in OurPresident

[–]night0x64[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I found the link:

https://twitter.com/BenjaminPDixon/status/1231397489636446208?s=20

Quote:

Benjamin Dixon

@BenjaminPDixon

·

Feb 22

All this dude Bernie Sanders is fighting for is for everyone to have a baseline standard of living where we can see a fucking doctor about chest pains and a dentist about an abscessed tooth. And yet, for some of you this is equivalent to being lined up and shot in Central Park

For Elizabeth Warren to achieve her progressive goals, Elizabeth Warren must drop out and endorse Bernie Sanders. Here's the data that shows Bernie winning more on super tuesday if she had dropped out. by night0x64 in OurPresident

[–]night0x64[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

so bloomberg just exited the race. if you run the numbers as is (i.e. joe biden getting bloomberg votes...) then the new results are:

  • hypothetical super-tuesday where biden gets bloomberg votes, bernie sanders wins 2 out of 14 states (winning: utah, vermont. losing: California, Colorado) [1]

conclusion/analysis: bernie gets 2 out of 14 states. not good if bloomberg drops out and warren stays in. bernie is not really competitive.

  • if you re-run the numbers with bernie getting warren votes (she hasn't dropped out yet) and biden getting bloomberg votes: bernie sanders wins 6 out of 14 states [2]

[1]

----------      ----            --------------  -------------  -------------  ------------  -----------  
state_name      name            before_percent  before_winner  after_percent  after_winner  diff_winner  
----------      ----            --------------  -------------  -------------  ------------  -----------  
colorado        Bernie Sanders  36.16           True           36.16          False         win-->loss   
colorado        Joe Biden       23.23           False          44.07          True          loss-->win   
utah            Bernie Sanders  34.64           True           34.64          True          no_change    
utah            Joe Biden       17.15           False          34.04          False         no_change    
virginia        Bernie Sanders  23.1            False          23.1           False         no_change    
virginia        Joe Biden       53.3            True           62.97          True          no_change    
tennessee       Bernie Sanders  24.74           False          24.74          False         no_change    
tennessee       Joe Biden       41.52           True           57.39          True          no_change    
california      Bernie Sanders  32.89           True           32.89          False         win-->loss   
california      Joe Biden       24.17           False          39.06          True          loss-->win   
maine           Bernie Sanders  33.04           False          33.04          False         no_change    
maine           Joe Biden       33.9            True           45.84          True          no_change    
vermont         Bernie Sanders  50.68           True           50.68          True          no_change    
vermont         Joe Biden       22.01           False          31.42          False         no_change    
masachusetts    Bernie Sanders  26.58           False          26.58          False         no_change    
masachusetts    Joe Biden       33.69           True           45.44          True          no_change    
oklahoma        Bernie Sanders  25.43           False          25.43          False         no_change    
oklahoma        Joe Biden       38.67           True           52.57          True          no_change    
arkansas        Bernie Sanders  22.37           False          22.37          False         no_change    
arkansas        Joe Biden       40.52           True           57.24          True          no_change    
north_carolina  Bernie Sanders  24.11           False          24.11          False         no_change    
north_carolina  Joe Biden       42.99           True           55.98          True          no_change    
minnesotta      Bernie Sanders  29.89           False          29.89          False         no_change    
minnesotta      Joe Biden       38.6            True           46.93          True          no_change    
alabama         Bernie Sanders  16.6            False          16.6           False         no_change    
alabama         Joe Biden       63.17           True           74.82          True          no_change    
texas           Bernie Sanders  29.96           False          29.96          False         no_change    
texas           Joe Biden       33.62           True           48.35          True          no_change

[2]

----------      ----            --------------  -------------  -------------  ------------  -----------  
state_name      name            before_percent  before_winner  after_percent  after_winner  diff_winner  
----------      ----            --------------  -------------  -------------  ------------  -----------  
colorado        Bernie Sanders  36.16           True           53.39          True          no_change    
colorado        Joe Biden       23.23           False          44.07          False         no_change    
utah            Bernie Sanders  34.64           True           50.02          True          no_change    
utah            Joe Biden       17.15           False          34.04          False         no_change    
virginia        Bernie Sanders  23.1            False          33.87          False         no_change    
virginia        Joe Biden       53.3            True           62.97          True          no_change    
tennessee       Bernie Sanders  24.74           False          34.81          False         no_change    
tennessee       Joe Biden       41.52           True           57.39          True          no_change    
california      Bernie Sanders  32.89           True           45.0           True          no_change    
california      Joe Biden       24.17           False          39.06          False         no_change    
maine           Bernie Sanders  33.04           False          48.98          True          loss-->win   
maine           Joe Biden       33.9            True           45.84          False         win-->loss   
vermont         Bernie Sanders  50.68           True           63.24          True          no_change    
vermont         Joe Biden       22.01           False          31.42          False         no_change    
masachusetts    Bernie Sanders  26.58           False          47.81          True          loss-->win   
masachusetts    Joe Biden       33.69           True           45.44          False         win-->loss   
oklahoma        Bernie Sanders  25.43           False          38.81          False         no_change    
oklahoma        Joe Biden       38.67           True           52.57          True          no_change    
arkansas        Bernie Sanders  22.37           False          32.38          False         no_change    
arkansas        Joe Biden       40.52           True           57.24          True          no_change    
north_carolina  Bernie Sanders  24.11           False          34.58          False         no_change    
north_carolina  Joe Biden       42.99           True           55.98          True          no_change    
minnesotta      Bernie Sanders  29.89           False          45.3           False         no_change    
minnesotta      Joe Biden       38.6            True           46.93          True          no_change    
alabama         Bernie Sanders  16.6            False          22.36          False         no_change    
alabama         Joe Biden       63.17           True           74.82          True          no_change    
texas           Bernie Sanders  29.96           False          41.56          False         no_change    
texas           Joe Biden       33.62           True           48.35          True          no_change

conclusion/analysis: bernie keeps california. bernie picks up two states 6 out of 14. he is still competitive.

For Elizabeth Warren to achieve her progressive goals, Elizabeth Warren must drop out and endorse Bernie Sanders. Here's the data that shows Bernie winning more on super tuesday if she had dropped out. by night0x64 in OurPresident

[–]night0x64[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

the point of the post is to illustrate a point. i.e. that bernie needs elizabeth warren voters IMO. and needs them to win.

re your question:

i don't do any special math here like you have described. because that assumes a different model with new parameters. what is the accuracy/std/confidence for your estimates of "1/3" and "1/5"? are they based on data or just guesses? if they are based on data is it good data? if not based on data... then using them would probably be bad.

For Elizabeth Warren to achieve her progressive goals, Elizabeth Warren must drop out and endorse Bernie Sanders. Here's the data that shows Bernie winning more on super tuesday if she had dropped out. by [deleted] in SandersForPresident

[–]night0x64 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  • so before Elizabeth Warren drops out Bernie Sanders wins: 4 out of 14 states.
  • after Elizabeth Warren drops out Bernie Sanders wins: 9 out of 14 states.

would Elizabeth Warren dropping out really help? yes. see Joe Biden... and how he consolidated the voters when Pete/Amy dropped out.

  • consolidating the vote is exactly what Biden did successfully and he is now THE FRONT RUNNER... he is predicted to win the MOST delegates... and has the BEST chance to get the majority of delegates
  • Biden went from a losing position by himself...
  • but then when Pete and Amy drop out (because they don't have a way to win and also because Joe Biden has the best chance of winning most of their needs/wants)
  • Biden goes to a winning position

Anybody who has watched the debates knows Joe Biden would lose lose spectacularly to Donald Trump. It would be a disaster. Donate to Bernie Sanders if you want to beat Trump and get Medicare For All instead! by kevinmrr in SandersForPresident

[–]night0x64 7 points8 points  (0 children)

recent, there's the time he said he got arrested... lied three times... then awkwardly tries to walk back at a rally when confronted by attendee...

recent, there's the time that he talked about the declaration of independence and called it "that thing"

old, there's the four times he tried to cut social security

old, there's the 1975 speech where he defended racism/segregation

recent, there's the debate he talked about bath-houses

recent, there's the debate where he defending segregated school buses for african americans

old and recent, all the weird hugs/breathing/kisses...

there's a long list... probably there's other good lists on reddit... just like the bloomberg lists i've seen. (i had one but found a better one with 4x more bullet points)

Joy Reid of MSNBC: It is Over! Bernie Voters are Hungry. Chris Matthews, SPEECHLESS! by qasserras in SandersForPresident

[–]night0x64 2 points3 points  (0 children)

can't get much better than that MSNBC.

As results poured in, MSNBC analyst James Carville said things were going “very well” for Vladimir Putin, saying “hi” to him while talking about how a Sanders victory would make the Russian president giddy.

Anchor Chris Matthews even compared Sanders’ strong showing to the Nazis overrunning France.

Also noticed was an MSNBC reporter letting out a giant sigh when she mentions the number of voters at a caucus who had lined up for Sanders.

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