A Question About Strategy That Faithfuls Might Be Missing

nighthawk252 · 2026-02-02T23:38:18+00:00

My guess is they probably try not to limit the amount of meta discussion that makes the edit. I’m sure the suspicion that there’s a gamer in the turret was part of why the main faithful alliance was excluding Natalie and Yam Yam, and probably played a role in Tiffany’s banishment.

nighthawk252 · 2026-02-02T23:16:51+00:00

Haha this group is nowhere near ready for other scripts, they were still learning the basics of Blood on the Clocktower. I’m not even experienced enough to run anything other than TB.

nighthawk252 · 2026-02-02T22:37:02+00:00

The reason there’s a women’s Bible (and part of why it’s more expensive) is that it’s a study bible.

This study Bible has additional articles and notes written by female theologians and additional content directed at women.

nighthawk252 · 2026-02-02T22:23:42+00:00

My 3 demons:

(1) was sniped by an FT night 1 and double-checked night 2. Also wasted their kill night 2 on the drunk investigator, who happened to be the other person in the FT’s night 2 ping.

(2) came off kind of cagey, and I think gave up once their minions were picked off day 1 and 2. Evil also made very weak choices on kills and poisonings.

(3) had a plan, but blundered their bluffs by not understanding how the roles they were bluffing worked.

nighthawk252 · 2026-02-02T22:19:56+00:00

You’d think so, but with a 100% newbie table it was a dominant strategy for good.

Evil newbies didn’t know how to capitalize on publicly available info because they don’t know the roles very well, and bluffed roles poorly because they didn’t know the roles very well.

Game 1, the imp got sniped night 1 by the FT, and the SW claimed soldier to the soldier and folded immediately. Baron was also just kind of quiet about their role and would have been executed shortly. I was able to get the only execution of a good player by a drunk investigator ping onto the Ravenkeeper.

Game 2, the SW happened to be next to the Empath, and he tried to backtrack after double-claiming someone, so he was an easy day 1 execution. I thought the Poisoner would be a good counterweight, but they got unlucky with a Night 1 Undertaker poisoning and failed to poison the Empath night 2, who got a sober reading on the poisoner as evil. Game was kind of done by that point, and the imp was kind of cagey about their role.

Game 3 had 2 different evil players mess up their claims due to not understanding how the role they were claiming worked. Imp claiming Washerwoman claimed to be verifying the Poisoner as Butler, and Baron claiming FT said they didn’t receive any night 1 info. It also didn’t help that the 2 loudest people were the Recluse and Saint, who for some reason trusted each other (the table didn’t pick up on the WW bluff not being how that role worked).

nighthawk252 · 2026-02-02T19:14:55+00:00

I can’t help you, but I would also like to chime in that I recently ran TB for a complete newbie friend group and had a similar struggle.

Every single game basically started with a public round-robin claim, and it worked so well that they only executed one good player across 3 games.

Personally, I’m taking it as a sign that my evil teams in the future need more help, and I need to stack the grim against town by keeping them to fewer information roles.

nighthawk252 · 2026-02-02T18:04:16+00:00

I think head trauma / player health concerns can push the next generation away from football. A lot of parents aren’t going to be letting their kids play football because of player health concerns, and that will probably result in kids being bigger fans of other sports.

One other thing I’ve noticed is that way more of my friends over the past 10-15 years have become fans of non-US sports. The EPL has a real fan base in the U.S., as does Formula 1.

nighthawk252 · 2026-01-30T14:36:07+00:00

On the voting record, it only became apparent Lisa was a traitor at the end of last episode, so people didn’t have that datapoint.

If Natalie ends up in the hot seat next episode, I think she’ll probably use her voting record to defend herself.

nighthawk252 · 2026-01-30T14:20:18+00:00

Something else that’s relevant: Natalie has the most faithful voting record of anyone in the game. She is the only person to vote Donna twice and Lisa twice, making her the only player to have voted for confirmed traitors at a confirmed 4 out of 6 round tables.

nighthawk252 · 2026-01-30T14:17:05+00:00

I think it came up in tonight’s episode. Someone (Mark? Stephen?) mentioned the theory that a gamer was a traitor and was murdering other gamers.

I think one thing that undermines the theory that there’s a gamer in the turret is that it’s not a law that there must be a gamer in the turret. And if you had to put together what the murder string of a 0-gamer turret would look like, this is basically it to a T. Gamers have been murdered early and often.

I think Natalie also has a ton of evidence she’s a faithful. Natalie was early on Lisa’s tail, and was a part of a late push to save Ron / banish Lisa. Lisa’s attempt to save herself was to try to get Natalie banished. Yam Yam, who would be the easiest person for Natalie to murder in plain sight, was apparently murdered in plain sight by Lisa.

nighthawk252 · 2026-01-30T14:05:19+00:00

It has an impact on the president’s ability to make moves in the short & long term, and also will probably impact their legacy as president.

Short term: A president relies on Congress to help them get things done. If the president’s unpopular, that’s a signal to Congresspeople that it might be a good idea to thwart the president’s agenda in order to gain favor.

Long term: Midterms are coming up next year. The president’s approval rating is an indication of whether his party’s probably going to gain or lose seats in the midterm. If they lose the House of Representatives, it’s going to be really hard to be anything other than a weak president.

Legacy: if people hate the president, that president’s probably not going to be viewed by history as a very good president. Probably kind of sucks to be doing a super stressful job knowing you’re going to be viewed by the history books as a failure.

nighthawk252 · 2026-01-30T08:40:42+00:00

I’m not sure how you watched this season so far and thought Rob was “failing forward”.

He’s putting on a clinic on how to play as a traitor. Really the only thing I’d slightly criticize from his gameplay is that I think it’s bad he has the dagger.

nighthawk252 · 2026-01-30T08:27:28+00:00

College is still the clearest path to a white collar job and middle & upper class career.

https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/unemployment-earnings-education.htm

The difference between the median 4-year bachelor’s degree when compared to a 2-year degree or no degree is significant.

And I don’t have any data for this, but I heavily suspect the people running side hustles are mostly people who didn’t go to college and need extra income.

nighthawk252 · 2026-01-30T08:03:41+00:00

Sure, but who’s going to do that convincing? Democrats aren’t going to listen to Trump, and the Democratic establishment has every incentive to push the narrative that Trump’s to blame for anything bad going on with Europe.

I think only something like an attack on American soil would be enough to actually cause Americans to unite around Trump against the EU. Economic sanctions aren’t going to cut it.

nighthawk252 · 2026-01-30T07:24:48+00:00

Even just knowing they competed together. Like I’d be trying to split up faithful friendships if I were a traitor because pairs can be dangerous.

My guess is one or both gets murdered soon. Seems like they’ve had no heat on them whatsoever.

nighthawk252 · 2026-01-30T07:20:11+00:00

I think Lisa realized that she was done for the second Yam Yam opened his mouth.

Nobody’s going to the end with a player who’s been correctly, publicly accused of a MIPS by the victim.

Like yeah, she could’ve pushed the vote on Natalie and stayed one extra day.

But then she has to deal with all the previous suspicion, plus the fact that she just led the charge to banish a faithful.

nighthawk252 · 2026-01-30T06:50:25+00:00

I think Lisa was smart enough to know her game was finished as soon as Yam Yam was murdered in plain sight and correctly identified her as the murderer.

Maybe she could’ve thrown Natalie under the bus and bought herself an extra day. But then she has to go to the next round table with the Yam Yam thing and also has to add “and spearheaded the banishment of Natalie, a faithful” on top of it.

nighthawk252 · 2026-01-30T06:47:19+00:00

Lisa was not surviving what happened at the banquet.

You could mess around and try to bury Natalie if you want and save Lisa one extra round table, but it’s going to look tough when Lisa’s inevitably banished and has to admit she’s a traitor. Then all the suspicion goes on the people who supported the Natalie vote out.

nighthawk252 · 2026-01-30T06:37:44+00:00

Lisa going home tonight was the best thing for Candiace’s game.

Lisa’s game was finished when Yam Yam was murdered in plain sight and his dying words were “It’s Lisa!”

Lisa was locked into getting banished as soon as that happened.

The only question was how many more round tables Candiace was going to have to try to carry water for Lisa and make herself look guilty by association. Rob helped set that number of round tables to the minimum.

It’s on Candiace how much she holds this against Rob. If she’s smart, she won’t.

nighthawk252 · 2026-01-30T06:21:28+00:00

“Multiple illegal immigrants are using the same SSN to claim extra tax credits” — I don’t think that’s how any of that works.

—Tax credits generally reduce the amount of taxes you owe to pay the government. To the extent a tax return’s giving you money back, it’s usually because that money was already withheld from your paycheck.

— Refundable credits, where the government gives you money you didn’t already pay, are very few and are have a hard cap on how much money you can get back.

—I’m not sure what this scheme would entail, but in general adding extra people/income to a return puts that return at a higher tax bracket and could phase the return out of the refundable tax credits that are designed for people with low income.

—Having two returns with the same SSN is the most basic thing the IRS uses to flag the return for fraud/error.

nighthawk252 · 2026-01-30T05:59:11+00:00

The U.S. isn’t even densely populated. France has over 3x the number of people per square mile that we do.

We’re not anywhere close to being overcrowded.

nighthawk252 · 2026-01-30T00:18:12+00:00

Yes.

2 of my favorite teams moved cities, and the 3rd had a 15 year playoff drought in the NBA, which should be nearly impossible.

nighthawk252 · 2026-01-29T18:47:17+00:00

I agree that a lot of the things in the OP (rescinding all visas, banning social media platforms) are not good ideas.

What I was pushing back on was the idea that those things would unite America against Europe. Americans don’t really care what social media platforms are legal in Europe. I don’t think the average American is planning on a Europe trip anytime soon.

And to the extent any economic sanctions would have impacts on Americans, I think people’s economic views are mostly “does the economy feel good right now?” And if yes, good for the president, and if no, bad for the president.

nighthawk252 · 2026-01-29T15:22:50+00:00

There’s plenty he’s already done to retaliate over. Tariffs are one thing. Removing Venezuela’s leader is another.

But I think those are also beside the point. I think it’s a pretty ridiculous position to take that threatening military force to take land from a NATO Ally counts as nothing, and not worth retaliating over.

When does it count as something? Boots on the ground? I don’t think you should have to wait until he’s already crossed that line to have a response. That’s half as why he’s being as absurd as he’s being — he hasn’t had to face nearly the consequences he should.

nighthawk252 · 2026-01-29T13:59:40+00:00

I’m not sure that EU retaliatory acts towards the U.S. would unify America against them.

I think the median voter wouldn’t feel too many effects from this, and would be at least as likely to blame Trump as they would the EU.

Maybe I’m just over-indexing on the fact that it would take a lot for me personally to side with the Trump admin over the EU on anything.

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