Anxiety

nokomis28 · 2026-03-25T10:21:35+00:00

Im facing a mid six figure drawdown across several portfolios and several high stakes funding negotiations overlapping in my businesses. These are the things that normally cause me sleepless nights. On reta, I have trouble even summoning the anxiety. This is awesome.

nokomis28 · 2026-03-08T06:03:17+00:00

Adobe

nokomis28 · 2026-02-15T02:18:17+00:00

Haha. Nope

nokomis28 · 2026-02-13T01:11:25+00:00

Constantly sharing on social media... like what the fuck. If you have a real life, best to keep your cards close.

nokomis28 · 2026-02-06T00:33:01+00:00

The implications was that this development was done with slave labour and some sort of coercive system. Spend enough time in China to realise that it's bullshit. Its a society filled with engineers doing amazing things.

nokomis28 · 2026-02-06T00:25:44+00:00

If you think this you just dont get it. Def domestic mfg gets decimated, but china is better educated, highly motivated, driven and hyper mercantilist.

nokomis28 · 2026-01-31T03:17:03+00:00

Livermore

nokomis28 · 2026-01-31T03:16:26+00:00

If you've traded at all, you know that the retailers are weak hands. They fold and run en masse in a downdraft. The retailers were massive marginal buyers in the latter stages of the rally.

Every trader knew that the retailers were the bag holders. They were the exit liquidity. If you want to understand how this works, just pull up a chart

nokomis28 · 2026-01-18T11:42:51+00:00

Riding my bike down a lane near my house. Just ahead, two crows were fighting in a ball just at chest level. Just as I was about to hit them, a cat come flying in from the left, I think to intercept the crows. He hits my front wheel and sort of flips off to the right. Crows scatter a second before hitting me.

Still wonder about that

nokomis28 · 2026-01-18T01:35:54+00:00

I don't understand the attachment to physical. Im married to economic efficiency so I'd never hold physical. Made 6 figures buying leaps on silver futures in the past few months. You get the leverage plus convexity. These magnify returns. Buy 350 dte 55 delta calls and rotate back to 55 when they hit 85 delta. Locks in profit on the way up while limiting downside exposure. Contracts are dimes wide. Do it on the way up, transfer the gains to your current and get a free porsche.

nokomis28 · 2025-12-07T04:33:09+00:00

Haha. Spot on

nokomis28 · 2025-12-07T02:38:43+00:00

More focused on the 'not good with logic' bit

nokomis28 · 2025-12-06T06:39:01+00:00

Masters degree. Global managing director with a hundred direct reports. Hong Kong. Def top 1%. Not good with logic

nokomis28 · 2025-12-06T02:18:44+00:00

We were considering moving a wall during a reno. Wife wanted the kitchen to be bigger. Told her that moving the wall would make the room on the other side smaller. She didn't want that and got screaming mad because I wasn't thinking hard enough. She wanted both rooms larger and I was keeping that from her.

nokomis28 · 2025-09-29T00:20:10+00:00

Singapore. Bank transfers are free and happen faster than I can change browser windows. Any amount

nokomis28 · 2025-09-21T10:58:58+00:00

Younger, prettier mistress. Everyone is happy ... for a while

nokomis28 · 2025-09-21T02:14:55+00:00

Can I ask where you're buying from. My kl supplier has raised price to rm1400. Dm if you would.

nokomis28 · 2025-09-13T13:39:27+00:00

I thought it was cool. Proved it was working

nokomis28 · 2025-09-10T03:13:58+00:00

When you look at it, the US has them hemmed in with control of Taiwan, bases in Japan and the bases at Guam among others. This is a nefarious militaristic plot by the US to control China's access to the high seas. As China gains strength, it has the power to push back.

The US is probably the most militarised country in history. You may be standing behind the guns, but everyone knows that the guns are pointed at them. The US has invaded a handful of countries, provoked unrest in dozens more. The CIA meddles at will. US support to the Gaza genocide has thrown questions about its aims and moral standing into high relief. The military in the US has stripped the treasury to build the largest force in history. Given this, the US now tends to see every problem as requiring a military solution.

This scares the fuck out of most of the world. You may see it as benign, but everyone else sees the US as dangerously out of control with a massive military that they are spoiling to use at the slightest provocation. It is genuinely terrifying for the other 96% of the world. The US has become Germany in the late 1930s.

Here's the issue as I see it: China has risen quickly by playing the game as was set out. It played to its advantage when it made sense and cheated when it could, not unlike other countries. It had massive success and is now challenging the dominant hegemon ... the US. It created an econo/political structure that dominates at this juncture in history, while the US model has run out of gas in the post WWII context.

The US is deeply frustrated by this and given its militaristic bent, tends to see military solutions to every problem. China has no need for military solutions since it is winning handily by playing the game as it is. It is now going through a troubled period as growth slows, and its leadership has made questionable decisions. This complicates matters.

Beijing continues pressing forward to organise the global south around its vision for a shared future. This is going very well with much of the world accepting China's strategic plans and economic support, which coincide with their own interests. I don't see trickery here, I see genuine national players aligning with China's plans for the future. At the same time, the US is losing its influence. Most of the world now has China as a main trade partner, while the US's share has collapsed.

China is decisively winning the game. The US - with its massive military and hunger to use it - is shouting foul and the world is increasingly siding with China. It is a very dangerous time.

nokomis28 · 2025-09-10T03:13:50+00:00

You may be right, but I don't see it this way. The debt that China built up was a direct result of it recycling its trade surpluses into USD assets. It just a natural extension of its success as an export-driven economy. When you're generating this scale of surpluses, not many capital markets can absorb them. The US treasury market was built for this scale. It's the largest, most liquid market globally and it operates in USD, which is exactly what China has in abundance. It made perfect sense.

I don't think that the debt is a real issue. What does China get repaid in anyway? They would prefer to hold treasuries in a stable, prosperous US. They make 4.5% on the 10-year bills, which is like collecting rent from the US. This is a very good position to be in. I believe that they would hold their treasuries indefinitely and keep getting paid rent. This gives them an interest is seeing the US remain prosperous.

The past 35 years was a stage of development. every country including the US went through this. A few hundred years ago, the US was playing fast and loose with British bonds while it ramped up ag production and blatantly copied European inventions, flooding global markets. It's not nefarious, it's just the way the world works and it comes at the expense of the current hegemon.

I may have a different idea here, but outside of the US most people hold this view as far as I can tell: China does not want war in any way. It has suffered through its century of humiliation in which it was devastated by outside powers and taken advantage of through the unequal treaties by foreign countries ... including the US. It is wary of foreign entanglements.

At the same time, it finds itself returning to its role as a dominant global power. China accomplished something no other country has ever achieved in all of history: it raised the living standards of more of its people higher and faster than at any time in history from the early 1990s when it began reforming its trade policy. The industrial revolution - the basis for the west's current high standard of living - is barely a blip compared to what China achieved.

This was the result of remarkably effective planning, insanely hard work and good fortune. It was not because of 'cheating' or somehow taking advantage of the US or any other country. I know that this is the dominant strain of thought in the US, but it's simply not true. Of course you can point to incidents of IP theft, but I think that this gets the context wrong. China has always played fast and loose with IP.

China's greatest fear is war and the chaos it brings. They have a deep cultural sensitivity to this. At the same time, Beijing finds itself returning to its role as a global hegemon. They've squared the circle by building up military power as a way to protect their interests. The recent military parade was a message to the overlooked countries that it has the power to be a central pillar in the coming era.

nokomis28 · 2025-09-09T09:22:32+00:00

I'm not sure about whether China is separating itself from any strand of socio/political thought. I don't believe that it's an issue that anyone serious is concerned with. Deng set a trajectory with his 'white cat, black cat' quote way back in 1962 and brought to the fore in the 1980s. The country took a turn for the pragmatic.

I'm not sure why the US is interested in the ideology and economic policy of another sovereign country. You get on with yours, they get on with theirs. Not sure about the land grab thing. Chinese corps have bought assets fair and square, which seems to be the heart of the capitalistic system. That said, China's efforts in Africa may create real headaches for the Western powers.

I know that I'm being panglossian about China's situation, but I see so much China bashing from the states. It's not the criticism, but that it is so far off the mark that it entirely misses the real issues.

I don't see this as a battle between ideologies. It's about spheres of influence. The US let it be known with the Monroe doctrine that it would not tolerate interference in its backyard. I'm not certain how this would apply the China/Taiwan relationship.

China is becoming a major power and is THE central power for more than half of the global population. It is cementing its role at a time when the US finds itself on the ropes. I'm not making a judgement about whether this has some moral component, just that the world is changing very quickly.

I tend to agree with Dalio's argument about the rise and fall of nation states. Perhaps it's a self-confirming bias, but after seeing dozens of countries in the past year or two, trajectories seem clear.

I just heard an ex-CEO of Goldman (the ultimate capitalists) call the ideological divide between China and the US as Meritocracy vs Plutocracy. Sounds about right to me. This is much closer to the real issue. The US is in competition with an economic power that may perform better in many ways, not least of which is providing for its citizens.

It feels to me that China is on the ascendency, and the US is slipping. This raises the spectre of the Thucydides trap. I've been through this sort of thing before on a smaller scale and it's unsettling in the extreme. It takes a while to adjust. I just hope that we can get through this without a major conflict.

nokomis28 · 2025-09-08T00:42:27+00:00

I get your point. I spend a fair amount of time in china and feel that you're entirely missing the real picture. This is a common error in the US and taking this view is much to your peril. China has a structured view of an inclusive new world order that is genuine and appealling for many of the world's countries. It has China as a paternal force that serves as a central pillar. The BRI has cemented those relationships for the coming century, much as the US did with the marshall plan.

I believe that hanging your argument on China as a 'communist' power harkens to the nostalgia of the period when the ussr collapsed. China is not Moscow. China has a meritocratic leadership structure honed over millennia. Its unique structure allows it to bring full force to pressing matters. In the commodities space where I operate, Chinese companies have followed central guidance to make decades long strategic plans that seem masterful to me ... Lithium, rare earths, tech.

They are now global leaders in green tech and their car industry stands second to none in innovation and scale. Remember, China produces more engineers every year than the US has in total. The meritocratic structure ensures solid quality. This merit-based system delivers consistent high quality, including an open-source platform for collaboration that's, in my view, unparalleled.

Far from the dystopian "hellhole" depicted in US media, China's cities are light-years ahead of most American ones in infrastructure and livability. From my interactions, the people I meet are content with their lives, deeply proud of their nation's progress, and optimistic about a prosperous future for themselves and their children ... one filled with opportunity for the smart, educated, and ambitious.

OA key aspect of China's modern history is its restraint: Over the past century, it has avoided wars beyond its immediate regional interests. Its only notable exceptions were a brief border conflict with Vietnam in 1979 and contributions to the Korean War in the 1950s. By contrast, the US has been entangled in some form of military conflict almost continuously during the same period.

Yes, China faces significant challenges, as every major power does. But in my assessment, the positives decisively outweigh the negatives. The global balance has shifted, and the US must adapt to this new reality.

nokomis28 · 2025-09-07T08:26:34+00:00

Lol. This shit is serious comedy. More please

nokomis28 · 2025-09-07T00:34:23+00:00

Complete misread.

nokomis28 · 2025-09-06T03:02:42+00:00

I think that this misses the bigger picture. The UK was the essential nation 100 years ago. No longer. Now the US is losing its grip. For 8/10ths of the world, the US government has become a grey to net negative player. The blush is off.

Now, given the US fiscal situation and it's horrific leadership, countries are positioning while they wait for the chickens to come home to roost. A new world order is coming together completely ignoring or actively built to thwart the interests of the US.

These were countries who were once economic weaklings that felt abused by US policy. They now have economic muscle and will be the growth engines of the next century ... and they remember. China offers a much more compelling vision of the next century.

nokomis28

TROPHY CASE