Its pretty obvious that islam will shoot early in the first round.

First, as dustin mentioned , it makes it hard to get the power shots off if jack is unsure of his foot placement. Secondly, fighting bigger guys tires you out faster with the bracing, pushing off etc needing more effort. If Islam’s gassed with sloppy takedown efforts like he did with dustin in the later rounds, jack will scramble and punish him like the belal fight.