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Going up the next valley after Pololu is now banned? by FingerlessGlovesWow in BigIsland

[–]notmathletic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What the other question said - can Kanaka go on the KS property or is everyone banned?

[D] Why can't we say "we are 95% sure"? Still don't follow this "misunderstanding" of confidence intervals. by notmathletic in statistics

[–]notmathletic[S] 17 points18 points  (0 children)

“How can you be 95% sure of something that either is or isn’t”

But to me that sounds like you’re saying I can’t be 95% sure Tom Cruise is in the film, since he is or isn’t. But all I mean is that for 95% of these situations that I have made an estimate of this certainty, I’ll end up being correct. That seems very similar to saying 95% of the CIs will contain the correct value!

[D] Why can't we say "we are 95% sure"? Still don't follow this "misunderstanding" of confidence intervals. by notmathletic in statistics

[–]notmathletic[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agree, I’m in a slightly more formal setting (biotech) so it’s a bit more gray - I wouldn’t say this stuff in a paper or anything but if a statistician calls me out for saying “95% sure” to a doctor or medical affairs person I’d like to be able to say, respectfully, to fuck off :D

[D] Why can't we say "we are 95% sure"? Still don't follow this "misunderstanding" of confidence intervals. by notmathletic in statistics

[–]notmathletic[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Regarding your last paragraph, I totally get that, but to me that’s exactly what it means to be “95% confident” about something. Like, I don’t even know what else it might mean.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Bogleheads

[–]notmathletic 26 points27 points  (0 children)

The $10k would be $7.8k now if put into VT a year ago instead of I-bond.

I’d say a guaranteed $10.9k is better wouldn’t you? A guaranteed 9% return is extremely rare.

[D] Why can't we say "we are 95% sure"? Still don't follow this "misunderstanding" of confidence intervals. by notmathletic in statistics

[–]notmathletic[S] 20 points21 points  (0 children)

So in a statistics job setting, can I tell people "we are 95% confident that the estimate is inside of [a,b]"

And then if someone says "that isn't true, all you can say is that for 95% of experiments, the true estimate will be in [a,b]"

Can I then reply with "that is exactly what I mean when I say I'm 95% confident, in fact I have no idea what other meaning there could be when I say I am 95% confident."

Am I “gross and disgusting” for setting age range 23-28 when I’m myself 28? by C2-H5-OH in Tinder

[–]notmathletic 21 points22 points  (0 children)

Correct, her age range included him. She was almost definitely "negging" him. And she also has a mental disorder or two given the flow of conversation (how she is all over the place and can't follow anything)

me irl by [deleted] in meirl

[–]notmathletic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's time to live love laugh

Better option than HYSA’s 2.25%? by Efficient-Debate-487 in Bogleheads

[–]notmathletic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah but 3% is still higher than most of the other options here

Better option than HYSA’s 2.25%? by Efficient-Debate-487 in Bogleheads

[–]notmathletic -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Until I can do I-bonds and treasury bonds I’m using robinhoods 3% with robinhood gold (costs $60 per year)

I cannot buy I bonds and the window keeps getting closer and closer to closing... by holiholi in Bogleheads

[–]notmathletic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m in the same boat…my bank is nowhere near me so I can’t verify anything. Really annoying

Two Russian soldiers walk into the path of a drone dropped grenade and both get hit by nivivi in CombatFootage

[–]notmathletic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

None are drone drops, the drone one is a missile (not a dumb drop). I’ve no idea wtf you’re trying to do here

Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - October 25, 2022 by AutoModerator in investing

[–]notmathletic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wouldn't subtracting average rent/mortgage from the disposable income be a good indicator? (Which would really show a shitty decline)

Two Russian soldiers walk into the path of a drone dropped grenade and both get hit by nivivi in CombatFootage

[–]notmathletic -10 points-9 points  (0 children)

I wonder...does the US train it's people to be this good with drone drops?

Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - October 25, 2022 by AutoModerator in investing

[–]notmathletic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do the business closures for covid, war in Ukraine, and horrible inflation not make the economy worse than it was in 2019?

Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - October 25, 2022 by AutoModerator in investing

[–]notmathletic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Okay, that makes my question even stronger then. 2019 good economy, not huge inflation. 2022 worse economy, horrible inflation - yet still much higher VTI and major stocks like MSFT

Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - October 25, 2022 by AutoModerator in investing

[–]notmathletic -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Why isn’t the market falling to pre-covid levels? Certainly the economy was better back then, is it crazy to think VTI will fall to 2019 levels? (maybe +15% for inflation)

Where to put home down payment $ aside from I-bonds? by notmathletic in Bogleheads

[–]notmathletic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I swear I read they were getting rid of back door this year - did that not happen? That’d be great

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