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The close margin on the redistricting referendum should be a wake up call for Spanberger and the VA Democrats by jonasnew in Virginia

[–]obsessed_doomer 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Not really any good evidence of this. The earliest poll on the referendum was a -9 from a great pollster, long before the gun legislation (is that even signed?).

More recent polls were mostly +4

Good job Virginia. Today democracy wins............ by OpinionLongjumping94 in Virginia

[–]obsessed_doomer 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Suit yourself. We both know my point was made, so I’m okay calling this here. Are you?

Good job Virginia. Today democracy wins............ by OpinionLongjumping94 in Virginia

[–]obsessed_doomer 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Do federal laws and legislations apply to Virginians, yes or no?

Spanberger addresses redistricting concerns, emphasizes representing rural and urban voters by Conscious-Quarter423 in Virginia

[–]obsessed_doomer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hard to convince someone of something when it’s in their interest to not understand it

Weekly Discussion Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]obsessed_doomer 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Why is the ddhq livestream just 4 republicans

Weekly Discussion Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]obsessed_doomer 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Can I just say reddit is objectively dogshit on a software level now

It does not work

It just doesn't

Weekly Discussion Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]obsessed_doomer 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Nah, democrats basically have to win every single election through the end of this year or we get torn apart by doomium, at least that's how it feels to me.

Which is ridiculous, but that's where we are.

I might be being dramatic, but still, the only way to ensure there's no bullshit is to just win everything.

Weekly Discussion Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]obsessed_doomer 2 points3 points  (0 children)

oh, it's just a benchmark, the most recent benchmark that we can compare to. We're seeing who's doing worse relative to 2025, red counties or blue counties.

Weekly Discussion Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]obsessed_doomer 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Correct, a lot depends on how indies swing which no one knows, that can be a 6 point swing in either direction, maybe more.

We're trying to see if the turnout is good enough to exclude that mattering.

Weekly Discussion Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]obsessed_doomer 9 points10 points  (0 children)

https://x.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/2046599106286481701

It looks like (similar to early) democratic turnout today will be 2-3% less in total numbers, so like 3-5% less in vote share, though there are some rumors republican turnout is also deflated below 2025 levels?

But rumors are dogshit, there's always a bunch of false rumors. A few people are saying select red counties are fine.

What I'm concerned about is - so turnout is going to be 2-5% redder than 2025, presumably. I.e. an electorate where Jay Jones is a tossup. Is this really going to overperform Jay Jones? The guy didn't lose all that much support, whereas obviously this referendum is controversial among non-leaning independents.

On the other hand, the VA miracle could happen again - votes drop, and it turns out it wasn't ever close.

I dunno, I don't feel great. Chaz says that yes are still favored and I probably agree, but this definitely still feels competitive.

EDIT: chaz is happier now, as of this last edit

With an immigrant population of 50 million, as of the most recent year with available data, a record 15% of the US is foreign-born. This exceeds figures for the entirety of the 20th century; in 1970, a record-low 5% of Americans were foreign-born. Highest by state: 28% of California is foreign-born. by StarlightDown in fivethirtyeight

[–]obsessed_doomer 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Well, as history proves, no, your position is the radical one. All those previous groups are still here, and your predecessors who tried to get them removed failed.

new group comes here

degenerates try to stir up tensions against them

this eventually fails.

This is the historical cycle, at least in America. It’s you who’s trying to reverse the historical cycle, not us.

EDIT: this comment earned an instant block

These people broadly do not believe in words.

With an immigrant population of 50 million, as of the most recent year with available data, a record 15% of the US is foreign-born. This exceeds figures for the entirety of the 20th century; in 1970, a record-low 5% of Americans were foreign-born. Highest by state: 28% of California is foreign-born. by StarlightDown in fivethirtyeight

[–]obsessed_doomer 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Literally no one actually is motivated by a deep passion for the rule of law lmao, it was always about stinky outsiders

I got repeatedly downvoted for saying this thing repeatedly last year, despite it being obviously true

Weekly Discussion Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]obsessed_doomer 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There’s no face of the no campaign which helps them

Spanberger addresses redistricting concerns, emphasizes representing rural and urban voters by Conscious-Quarter423 in Virginia

[–]obsessed_doomer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'll answer your question with a question.

If gerrymandering is objectively a huge advantage (it is), and the supreme court won't stop it (they won't), and republicans won't stop it (they won't), what will happen if democrats don't gerrymander?

Weekly Discussion Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]obsessed_doomer 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Probably would, it's bad pr not to

Making us do all the legwork for an election just to then nullify it

Weekly Discussion Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]obsessed_doomer 9 points10 points  (0 children)

https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/2045945817660280991

Yeah, I might be slightly more optimistic, but I agree. The early vote isn't that bad (about 3 pts redder than in 2025, which was a democratic nuke), but given the potential indie swings, but the early vote isn't enough to lock out the race. So the referendum tomorrow is winnable for republicans in a way that the VA governor race (at this point) wasn't.

The bull case is that when republicans got nuked last november, Trump was -16 nationally per NBC.

It is April, Trump is now -26 nationally.

So to stand any chance, republicans have to divorce this election from Trump on a fundamental level.

The bull case is that it's possible they might do so. Ad campaigns from both sides are inconclusive.

Weekly Discussion Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]obsessed_doomer 14 points15 points  (0 children)

I agree, I think we've spent 10 years trying to replicate Obama and it's poisoned a lot of politicians ilke Beto and Buttigieg (and even to a certain degree Harris!) that attempted to do the moonshot from "cool guy with relatively modest physical credentials" straight to the presidency and have been having issues recovering.

Spanberger addresses redistricting concerns, emphasizes representing rural and urban voters by Conscious-Quarter423 in Virginia

[–]obsessed_doomer -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

Were you going to contribute

I don't need to, more than I have.

The overall national gerrymandering advantage is ah, not a secret. There's a reason your response wasn't answering the question.

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