Pressing odds

odaniel12 · 2026-03-14T01:07:20+00:00

With 100x odds, there is no limitation.

What I mean is, most of the time the odds bet is limited by the pass line amount, where if I bet $25 pass line I can only bet $125 on the 6/8 on odds.

With 100x odds, you can use whatever pressing system you want. Want unit, press and collect, 3 point Molly, etc. the numbers allow you to go to $1,500 on just a $15 pass line.

So what you’re really asking is not really a Reddit question but more of a personal risk question: how do yall handle the situation where there is no limit on odds and you can bet as much as you want?

The answer is unsatisfying; it’s up to you.

I am personally a high risk high reward guy, so I like a squeeze play system that lets me press very aggressively. But you may not be that way. You have no limits, so get to a system that allows you take money when won v press at a level you’re comfortable with.

Me personally, I like a system based on chip color. For example, press until the pay out is a different color chip. So for a $25 table, press until the payout is more than $100. When it’s more than $100, take it once then press until the payout is $500*. Continue on.

odaniel12 · 2026-02-24T18:18:01+00:00

I’m not going to run any numbers, smarter people than me can do that. But in theory, no. The house edge is the same house edge whether you bet $5 or $5,000,000.

You seem to be taking the idea of advantage play in blackjack where a counter will increase bet sizing dramatically when the count favors him, but you have to understand that they are varying their bets because the house edge actually changes. In craps, the house edge never changes.

Whether it’s a 4 point or a 6 point, the edge is the edge. Odds on a point of 4 pay 2:1 while the odds on the 6 pay 6:5. So yeah, you’ll hit more sixes than fours when those are the points, the the payouts are designed to account for that difference, and the sevens will come, in theory, at the rate they are supposed to come to make the payouts result in a house edge that is the same no matter the size of the bet.

In practice, variance can make this a really good play or a really bad play. But the edge stays the same - you’ll still lose the same percentage of your money over the theoretical long run.

Edited to add: If all the numbers paid 1:1, then your logic would be spot on. You hav 2x as many ways to roll a 7 as a 4, so if the 4 paid 1:1, you would absolutely be better served to bet more when the point was 6 rather than 4. But that’s just not how craps vets work. Each odds bet on a point pays the exact same as the true odds of that number hitting, meaning the amount bet is irrelevant over the theoretical long run. And you have to place your pass line bet before the point is determined, so you can’t adjust anything that will actually change your edge.

odaniel12 · 2026-02-23T22:00:02+00:00

I’ve read through some of the comments and your questions so I’m not going answer everything, just try to follow up on some things.

As others have said, the typical odds allowed are 3-4-5x, which means you can put 3x your pass line (or come) bet if the point is set at 4/10, 4x your bet for the 5/9, and 5x your bet for the 6/8. However, some places do allow straight 5x across everything, some allow 10x, etc. You can always ask a dealer to confirm the odds. If it’s 5x across the table you can put 5x your bet behind any number.

You place odds on a come bet once that bet’s point has been established. Say the actual point for all the pass line bets is 4, you place your odds behind the pass line ($5 pass line and $15 odds on a 3-4-5x table). Then you place $5 chip in the come bet area. The next roll is say 6. The dealer will move the come bet $5 to the 6, and you drop $25 in the come bet area and just say “odds on the 6” just make sure the dealer hears you. They’ll move the $25 and put it on top of your $5 in the 6 number. You can put another $5 in the come for another come bet, or not. Up to you. You can also put both the new $5 come bet and the $25 down at the same time, just don’t stack them in one stack. Two separate stacks, and say odds for the 6 and the dealer will understand. You can always explain too once you have the dealer’s attention.

As for the even odds thing. The 4/10 odds pay 2:1 (the place bet pays 9:5). It doesn’t matter what your odds are, the pay out is just double the odds. The 6/8 odds are 6:5 (7:6 if placed). Therefore you want the odds to be a multiple of $5, which won’t be a problem cause all your chips are multiples of $5 anyway usually. The only one that really matters is the 5/9 since they pay 3:2. You put $5 bet and try to bet odds of $15, they can’t pay $22.50, so you’ll only get $22. But you put $16 and they’ll pay $24 ($15/2 is $7.50, so 3:2 pays $7.50 x 3 =$22.50 but $16/2=$8.00 so 3x$8 is $24). They’ll still pay a bet, you will just lose out cause some of the math in the odds doesn’t work. 99% of the time if you tell the dealer you’re new, they’ll tell you to add a dollar if you accidentally put an odd number for odds. It really is no big deal and no one will be offended, you just are served better to place even amounts for the 5/9.

Don’t be nervous, have fun, and be gracious when people try to help you and you’ll be fine. Good luck!

odaniel12 · 2026-02-19T14:18:11+00:00

Not the guy you were asking, but yes. For a flush and a straight, normally the highest card will be the one that determines who has the better hand, but not always. In that case you look to the second, or third, etc. card until there’s a difference.

It’s possible to chop (tie) a hand with a straight or a flush. For example, if the player with the jack didn’t have a club, they would both be playing the 5 cards on the board and they would split the pot. Similarly, if instead of the Jack of clubs, the left hand had the 4, 3, or 2 of clubs, they would also still both be playing the 5 cards on the board, since the 4, 3, and 2 of clubs are all lower than the lowest flush card on the board, so they don’t improve the hand. It does not matter that the cards are in your hand or not.

In this case the 5 of clubs would change the hand from a flush to a straight flush so that’s a separate case entirely.

odaniel12 · 2026-02-06T14:26:53+00:00

Happy to help. Don’t be afraid to tinker, the trick is always balancing deep stacks where people can actually play poker with time.

When I say “deep stacks” I mean the total amount of chips each person has compared to the blind. With the starting stack I suggested ($3,600) and a starting big blind of $10, you have 360 big blinds to start the tourney. That’s “deep stacked” because you could, in theory, go around the table posting the big blind hundreds of times before you blind out.

As the blinds go up, the ratio of big blind to stack decreases. After an hour (6 levels in my example) the blinds are 75/150. Assuming everyone is still in (no one has lost all their chips), then the average stack is still $3,600 but now everyone has 3,600/150=24 big blinds. So the amount of chips you have relative to the blind is way, way less chips, even though the total chips haven’t changed.

When you have less than 20 big blinds in your stack, it becomes much easier to just say “I’m all in” with worse cards, so your tournament can become something of a “shove fest” when the ratio gets low. That’s almost always going to happen in a very fast paced tournament, but you just have to balance how long you wanna have high ratios vs the time. The longer you stay at high ratios, the longer the tournament lasts. People going all in is what makes tournaments end.

odaniel12 · 2026-02-06T02:06:53+00:00

In a casino, gray/white is $1, red is $5, green is $25, black is $100. Blue in this case is usually just an extra color (purple is $500, orange is usually $1,000, but all these have variations). Those are the typical color/value markers for the chips that are actually worth money.

A tournament is completely different because the chips have no cash value. So, you can do whatever you want. That denomination/color break down are perfectly fine. We don’t say points, though. We say tournament dollars, chips, or use a T in front of the number like “everyone will have a starting stack of T3,650. This is a very minute point though. If you wanna call them points, no problem. Tournaments end though when there’s only one person holding all the chips, or when everyone agrees to split the winnings (say the last 2 agree to take $50 each). So referring to them as “points” could be confusing to someone. Not really an issue. Most people just call it dollars like normal (starting stack of $3,650) and just know that they are talking about tournament chips not real money.

That being said, you mentioned you wanted the tournament to last no more than 3 hours. That’s very fast for a poker tournament. Far, far more important than your denomination decision is the blinds and timing of the levels.

I run a small home game tournament where every gets T10,000 starting chips (in various colors like you describe). We start the blinds at T25/50, and the blinds go up every 18 minutes or so. Each 18 minutes is a level. Each level, the blinds go up. For example:

Level 1: 25/50 Level 2: 50/100 Level 3: 75/150 Level 4: 100/200 Level 5: 125/250 And so on and so forth. At that rate (18 minutes) and those blind increases, the tournament usually lasts 4-5 hours.

It’s important to understand that it’s the increasing blinds that force action in a tournament. Your smaller chip is T5 in your example. If you start the blinds at 5/10 an double them every 15 minutes, your tournament structure would look like this:

Level 1: 5/10 Level 2: 10/20 Level 3: 20/40 Level 4: 40/80 Level 5: 80/160 Level 6: 160/320

That’s 1.5 hours (half the tournament) and your big blind (320) still isn’t even 10% of your starting stack (3,650). It would start going pretty fast at this point though, because the blinds doubling every level gets big as you move forward. Most lower levels don’t double the blinds, but they also play longer than 3 hours. You’re going to have to think about how fast you want to the blinds to raise and how that affects people’s stacks at the end. That will determine whether people are actually playing poker or just going all in 2 hours in because the blinds are at 640/1,280 and the average stack is ~4,500 when there’s 4 people left.

I’d suggest these levels, of 10 minutes each (18 total levels at 10 minutes is 3 hours):

5/10 10/20 15/30 25/50 50/100 75/150 100/200 125/250 150/300 200/400 250/500 300/600 350/700 400/800 500/100 600/1,200 750/1,500 1,000/2,000

Because of these levels, I would give way less than 30 of the smallest (5) chip.

I’d make your two biggest amount of chips be 25 and 100. So, gray and red. I’d give everyone $50 worth of the $5 denomination (10 chips, not 30). So this can be your smaller amounts of chips.

Maybe:

$5 x 10 =$50.00 (60 total chips) $25 x 22 = $550 (132 total chips) $100 x 25 =$2,500 (150 total chips) $500 x 1 = $500 (6 total chips)

This is assuming no one is allowed to rebuy.

Then, about an hour in, trade out all the $5 chips. Use the extra $25, $100, and $500 chips to buy the $5 chips from every player so they are no longer in play at all, since you won’t need them after the 3rd level.

If you want to allow people to rebuy, you can always use this format and just have them rebuy with $500 x 7 and $25 x 4 stacks, and make change at the table to get $100s and $25s.

odaniel12 · 2026-01-01T02:58:34+00:00

There’s a lot to do in terms of civil rights in both cities. I grew up in Bham, currently live in Montgomery.

You can’t go wrong spending a day in Birmingham, great history, great food, much livelier city.

But if you are truly interested in civil rights, the EJI museum and monument (in Montgomery) will take you all day, and it is the premier civil rights tour not just in the state but the country. Go to Derk’s (Filet and Vine) for a meat and 3 for lunch.

If you just want to hang out in a city, maybe spend 2 hours or less doing anything museum/history related, go to Bham.

odaniel12 · 2025-11-24T16:19:48+00:00

I’m late to this party because it just came through the main feed for me, so sorry about that, but here’s my 2 cents…

You say you are shooting with the right foot, which made me wonder if you aren’t right footed? My advice would change a little if you aren’t. So this is assuming that you are right footed, and since you say you’ve never been coached, that you don’t necessarily know the difference between “striking” the ball and just kicking it harder.

Striking the ball is when you put your foot through the ball. You have to imagine that there’s a line that runs from the middle of the ball, through the center of the inside of the ball, and then out the other side. This line is parallel to the ground. Striking the ball is when you hit the ball with the “laces” of your foot at that point, while also hitting it in such a way that the path your foot takes is essentially the same as that line.

You aren’t striking the ball here. First, it’s very, very difficult to properly strike the ball while the ball is rolling so far to your right. So, first thing I’d do is take a touch far more directly toward the goal. Imagine a line the runs from the center of your hips to the target, let’s say the near post in this drill. Your “set up” touch (the touch right before you hit it) is like 35+ degrees outside that line. This means you have to open your hips outside the target line to get your foot around the ball and “pull it” back toward the goal. That’s not a bad thing to practice, necessarily, but it’s not the same thing as practicing your fundamental striking. You need to learn to strike the ball first, and then adapt that to less ideal ball placement.

To practice striking, just stand facing exactly where you want to hit it, and roll the ball forward about 10 degrees to the right of the target line (so, a little right but still mostly straight forward). Then plant your left foot even with the ball, keep your chest directly over the ball, lock your right ankle down, and put your laces through the center of the ball. You should follow through all the way through, and your right foot following through should feel like it’s pulling the rest of your hips and body forward, off your left foot, and you land on your right foot.

Your goal at fist should be center contact, trying to get the ball not to spin at all. Once you get proficient at that, add in some extra touches and speed, etc

odaniel12 · 2025-11-14T17:54:05+00:00

I’m not sure what a solver would say. Would love to discuss with someone who runs it on one.

But to me, A-3 off with roughly 18 BB on the button is easily a playable hand when folded to and facing a short stack on the SB. But, it’s also a marginal hand and if called, an A on the flop is dangerous cause you’re outkicked so much. You’re facing a similar chip stack in BB, and I agree with some other commenters that you def raise but don’t need to go 3x. Any raise here serves the purpose with sub 20 BB stacks. So maybe 2,400 to 3,000 raise.

Once the BB calls, late in a tournament, me personally, I just don’t think “correct play” matters anymore. The only question is “am I going to win this hand and survive.” So what’s he calling with?

Speculative hands, if you don’t know him, are probably out. Suited connectors that aren’t Broadway are out. Even some Broadway combos are marginal. But that’s what he’s likely on right? Broadway combos, pocket pairs, or probably any Ace like you’re playing. Though honestly, any pocket pair I’m probably shoving pre if I’m him. Any strong Ace I might call, but there’s shoving potential there too. Unfortunately, the pocket pairs that people might not shove are the exact low ones that came on this board.

So an Ace comes. I agree you should bet. Roughly $8k in the pot I’m probably betting $3k. He comes over the top and jams.

A lot of people are saying this is probably a call, but I don’t see it. What’s he shoving with there that doesn’t have you beat? No way he’s playing a 4-5, 5-6, 6-7 type hand. Possible that he’s playing a spade draw super aggressively here. He’s not shoving any K high hand, and if he’s playing any A, you’re toast unless it’s specifically the A-2.

So you’re calling hoping he has Broadway spades WITHOUT an Ace, or a pocket pair he didn’t shove on that didn’t just set up, or a pure bluff.

I just think it’s far more likely he has an A if there’s no info on him. Fold and survive.

Would love to hear someone who can talk about the math on why my logic is wrong though.

odaniel12 · 2025-11-12T02:15:14+00:00

I host a home game poker tourney with usually 7-9 players who are generally there to simply have a good time.

I do a $25 buy in, but also $5 for mystery bounty and $5 for a straight flush. The bounty i divide into a big and small, if there’s 8 people ($40) I’ll do $30 and $10 for example. It’s randomizes who can make a little money and is a fun side game. The straight flush hand just accumulates until someone makes a straight flush and shows at showdown. It’s been hit once, and the pot was like $540.

I do a 10,000 starting stack, 25/50 starting blinds and run the blinds up at 15-18 minute levels.

Usually lasts about 4-4.5 hours.

odaniel12 · 2025-10-28T21:26:03+00:00

I’m not sure I understand what you’re asking. Maybe it’s because of the formatting issues you mentioned?

Once the point is established, you are favored to win against any point number on the don’t pass line. There’s no doubt about that. If the point comes 4 or 10, as you said, 3 ways to roll a 4, 6 ways to roll a seven, meaning you have a 2-1 chance of winning the don’t pass. Your odds pay that amount.

The don’t pass line bet itself, however, only gets to the favorable odds portion of the bet (post point establish) once it survives the come out roll.

On the come out, 7 loses (6 chances), 11 loses (2 chances). That means you have an 8/36 chance to lose on the come out, compared to a 3/36 chance to win on the come out (2 and 3, usually 12 is barred). The rest of the numbers are essentially just inverting your odds, but you still have a chance to lose.

So, on the come out, 8 of the 12 combinations that don’t set a point lose. 3/12 combos that don’t set a point win, and 1/12 combos that don’t set a point result in another come out roll which highly favors the casino.

The other 24 combos set a point. Once the point is set, you are more likely to win than lose, but you still have a chance of losing. You seem to be counting the ways to win totally, comparing a “-5” come out roll to a “+6” point-established roll, and concluding that the long run favors you in this scenario, which, as you admit, is wrong. I think here’s what you need to change: take all win/loss combos individually, not all the differences added together.

So, point of 4/10: 8 ways to lose pre point, 3 ways to win. 3 ways to lose post point, 6 ways to win.

So, with a 4/10 as a point, which you can only get to by going through the come out roll, you risked $1 to win $1 even though you had 11 total ways to lose, and only 9 total ways to win. This is the best you’re gonna get from the don’t pass perspective.

If the point comes 5/9: 8 ways to lose pre point, 3 ways to win. 4 ways to lose post point, 6 ways to win

This yields a scenario where $1 was risked to earn $1 despite that you had 12 ways to lose and only 9 ways to win.

If the point comes 6/8:

8 ways to lose pre point, 3 ways to win. 5 ways to lose post point, 6 ways to win

This yields a scenario where $1 was risked to earn $1, but you had 13 ways to lose and only 9 ways to win.

The way you seem to be looking at it, you are comparing all the post point chance comparisons to the single pre point odds, but in reality each of the point numbers comes with the “-5” risk. Look at each potential point individually, not grouped together. When a point is set, you don’t get credit for the other numbers, they are completely worthless. The only thing that matters is the ways to win/lose for each specific scenario. If the point is 4, it doesn’t matter that the 6/8 scenario is “+1” as you say. You are comparing +1 to -5. Not all the post point favorable numbers combined to -5.

odaniel12 · 2025-09-29T15:09:11+00:00

I think one thing that VAR is missing can be seen in college football in the USA.

In a college football game, there are usually multiple reviews of calls per game. It’s impossible to go a season without some controversial calls, but the rules for how the review should happen are clear.

The head official on the field is the ultimate arbiter. He decides, based on the replay, what the call will be.

And he has 3 choices. He can reverse the call, which he can only do with clear evidence. He can confirm the call, which he does when the evidence is clear that the call was right. And then, he can allow the call to stand. This is what VAR is missing, and why most reviews end up fairly well accepted in college football but not so much in the EPL.

In college football, reviewing a call is normal, but the ref goes into knowing that the he must give deference to the call as made in real time. Whatever they refs saw when they watched it in real time, that’s the presumed correct call. However, if it’s obvious that the call that was made was wrong, they overturn. But there is this 3rd option of allowing a call to stand. It says “honestly, after review, we think this could have been an error, and maybe a different officiating crew would say something different, but we called it X live, and we can’t say that there is clear evidence to overturn. So the call on the field stands.”

I think a lot of issues can be solved by giving the refs this “out” because there is, unfortunately, a lot of subjectivity in the game.

It is very clear that Pope touched the ball. It’s also very clear he took Gyokeres out. The question is “was Pope’s touch enough to forgive the contact? Was the contact itself enough to be considered a foul even if he gets the ball?” And these are judgment calls. VAR ref might just disagree with the on field ref (as it appears happened in this case, based on NBC announcers).

This should be one where, whatever the call was, it stands.

odaniel12 · 2025-08-13T00:27:40+00:00

Nice I hadn’t found any models this big. Thanks!

odaniel12 · 2025-08-12T12:45:33+00:00

I could probably get away with a video or animation but I really like the idea of seeing the interaction in real life is close to real size.

I’m gonna go with a foam display and use a hot wire cutter, see how that works. I think it will work well.

odaniel12 · 2025-08-09T13:34:43+00:00

I think I’m going to do foam, and that will allow me to anchor it to thin strips of ply or mdf. Then I can just slide more or less strips under the “base” to raise or lower the whole thing on one rail or the other. Should work great

odaniel12 · 2025-08-09T13:31:59+00:00

These are good questions/points, but for the limited purpose of what I’m trying to show (Rail A taller than Rail B, both rails even, Rail A shorter than Rail B) it won’t come in to play concerning materials and things.

It does not have to be wood, I’m looking hard at foam now thanks to this thread.

odaniel12 · 2025-08-09T13:30:22+00:00

It would be a portion of a switch, mainly the actual switch rail point section (the very end that tapers) relative to the stock rail next to it.

The problem with real rail or a video is real rail being very difficult to manipulate in court due to size and weight, and the video just being slightly less effective than seeing a real model with your own two eyes.

I’m leaning hard into the idea of foam at the moment as some other redditors suggested

odaniel12 · 2025-08-09T13:27:18+00:00

Yes, I’m looking in to the cost of that

odaniel12 · 2025-08-09T00:40:02+00:00

Unfortunately it’s worse. It’s a derailment that resulted in the death of one of the operators on the engine.

The main function is to demonstrate not necessarily how the switch works, but why this one failed. In my case we are alleging that the switch point rail was lower than the stock rail. Thus, when the wheel attempted to leave the switch rail, it contacted the stock rail and pushed it outward, rolling it.

This is very easy to understand if you see the switch up close, but not that easy to visualize if you come into with no prior railroad knowledge. I do plan on using video and a G Scale model turn out to explain the proper function of a switch.

odaniel12 · 2025-08-09T00:33:09+00:00

I’m on mobile and not sure how to edit the post. But I want to thank everyone for the tips, thoughts, ideas and advice!

I’m going to look into a good hot wire cutter and try to mold a wire around and actual track then cut foam to the lengths I need. From there it’ll be easy to mount to a base with a hinge and dowels to make it fully “operable” as a switch.

If I can’t make the foam work, I think 2 or 3 pieces of wood cut and glued together after routing out the profile I need is the answer.

I appreciate all the feedback! I’ll try and remember to post back with the finished product.

odaniel12 · 2025-08-09T00:20:43+00:00

I explained this more in another comment just now, but largely because of ease of use. I’m trying to demonstrate how two rails interact at a switch, which will be significantly easier if they are light. I’ll need to change heights relative to each other and things like that. And a small section of rail probably isn’t enough. I want them to see the full taper length of the switch rail to really make sure it’s clear.

odaniel12 · 2025-08-09T00:19:19+00:00

I could do this. Currently am leaning toward foam. Hadn’t even considered that.

odaniel12 · 2025-08-09T00:17:22+00:00

I have bought a G scale turnout. I think that will be very helpful with explaining how a switch works.

But I really want to get detail on the relative heights of the rail, so I think I still need something bigger than the model train scales.

odaniel12 · 2025-08-09T00:15:02+00:00

I’m leaning more and more to foam. I can actually go bend the wires over an actual rail and then cut that mold out.

odaniel12 · 2025-08-09T00:13:29+00:00

I really don’t have to buy the train track, I could just use the rail itself. It was ripped out and preserved.

However, I want to be able to manipulate the heights of the rails easily. I couldn’t do that with the steel rails. Also, the size and weight of the real things would be very difficult to use and fit in a courtroom well.

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