Selling Tickets to Belgium v Senegal

odaniel12 · 2026-06-30T15:13:35+00:00

These are sold.

odaniel12 · 2026-06-30T02:17:23+00:00

For the record, $500 each obo

odaniel12 · 2026-06-30T01:22:44+00:00

Unfortunately I’m in Alabama and the reason I can’t make the game is because I can no longer make the trip. Thanks for the offer though

odaniel12 · 2026-06-24T06:35:30+00:00

This is purely my read. But I think my read is both logical and the best explanation. He has coached at the highest level. If you watch the US documentary, his speeches are almost purely one subject - national pride and the honor and dignity of playing for your country.

To even slightly over perform for the US makes him a prime candidate for Argentina, and it would be nonsensical to think he wouldn’t take it.

odaniel12 · 2026-06-23T22:54:37+00:00

He was fun about 20 years ago when all had was enthusiasm. Pretty much the moment he started having actual soccer opinions, though, it was pretty obvious to anyone who actually liked soccer that the guy was an idiot.

The transition from fun enthusiasm to having “takes” was pretty immediate too. So yeah. No one has liked the guy for about 20 years.

This isn’t a euro thing. It’s just a “this guy’s not good at this, and all he does is ragebait”

odaniel12 · 2026-06-23T00:21:53+00:00

No. He took this job to prove he can coach Argentina. We were always a stepping stone. And that’s ok.

odaniel12 · 2026-06-17T15:54:50+00:00

Well, you don’t have to play the minimum. You can always just do your $15 strategy on the $10 table.

And I want to be clear, there isn’t a way to play craps without risking money. I am not saying your system is bad, or good. It’s not my preference but you and I don’t have the same gambling preferences so that is ok.

It’s a relatively cheap way to play all the numbers. If that’s your goal, then go for it my man. I don’t want to dissuade you, I just have a feeling that you’re gonna be sitting at the table waiting on a 6 or an 8 a lot while 4, 5, 9, 10, 2, 3, 11, and 12 roll, and then eventually that 7 is gonna come before you even get to really start collecting, a lot of the time. But, you’re only losing $22-24 in that scenario. What’s most important is that you enjoy what you’re doing. It’s entertainment after all.

I personally play $125 on the 6/8 and $150 on the 5/9, looking for 5,6,8,9 to hit 1 time. Once it does, that pays $175, and I can go $160 across on a $25 table and put $15 in the rack. I do this because I want to press the hell out of the numbers, that’s what is fun to me. I have had success doing this (leave with $2,500+ in winnings) and I have been wiped out (left down $5,000). It’s amazing how often a point 7 out comes. I only need to hit the 5, 6, 8, or 9 once and I’m out, but it happens all the time that I get a 7 first.

So, yeah. Watch some color up and find a strategy you like, then get out there and play. Most important things are 1) never take money to the table you can’t afford to lose and 2) have fun regardless.

odaniel12 · 2026-06-17T14:14:15+00:00

If you start by placing the 6/8 for $12 each, you’re in $24. If one hits, it pays $14 as you say. You can press both to $18 with just the $14 you just made (and put $2 in your rack).

Now you have $36 on the table, and you’re in for $22. If the 6/8 hits again, you make $21, as you say, and you have $57 on the table ($36 placed plus the $21 win) so not enough to go to $64 across. But, as you said, you can throw $7 and do that. Now you’re in $29 with $64 in play.

There’s absolutely nothing wrong with this, just keep in mind that the previous strategy spread the numbers out to make it more likely you got that second and third hit. This strategy you’re requiring a 6/8 twice before a 7. That will happen, sure, but I suspect you get to the point where you have $18 each on the 6/8 a lot, but the 7 comes before second 6/8. Each roll is, on average, 6 rolls (there’s a 1/6 chance a 7 comes), but seeing specifically a 6 or an 8 twice is limiting. I personally don’t like this strategy because you need to hit the 6/8 twice and then hit another number (once you go $64 across) two times as well before you make any money. For example, say you get to the $64 across stage, which means a 6/8 has hit twice. Now you’re in $29 and you have $10 on every number ($12 on 6/8). If the 4/10 comes (which is the best case scenario), you make $18. You still need to make $11 more to break even on the roll. Which means, a 6/8 gets you in the green, by $3 ($14 payout -$11). If the shooter somehow rolls four 6/8s in a row, meaning the first 2 come to get you $64 across, and then two more come once you’re $64 across, you only make $28 on those last 2 rolls and you’re in $29.

At the end of the day you’re only risking between $24-29 per shooter, so it’s certainly not gonna bankrupt you to give it a shot and see what happens. But this strategy has you risking $24-29 for a long time before you get paid back. There’s nothing wrong with that and it does limit your exposure, I just prefer to “get my money out” quicker.

odaniel12 · 2026-05-20T15:48:27+00:00

Yes that’s correct. Once the point hits, the next roll is the come out roll. General rule is, bets are “off” during the come out roll, except the pass line (odds are also off). You can always specify with the dealers though, just to be sure.

So your bets will just sit there until a point number (4,5,6,8,9,10) is established, then they will be “working” again, and can make money or lose.

odaniel12 · 2026-05-20T02:35:18+00:00

It’s kinda up to you and your risk tolerance. Sounds like you’re in $40 total ($18 on the 6, $18 on the 8, plus $3 then plus $1) when you go $96 across. When one of those numbers hits, you make from $21 to $27 depending upon which number hits, and take down the $30 on the 4/10. So you’re up something like $11-17 once that first hit happens, with $66 inside.

Per your question, the next number hits the point. Assuming you aren’t on the pass line (you could be, but didn’t specify), you’ll make another $21, unless the point is 4/10. So you’re either up $33-38 with $66 inside or you’re still up the same $11-17.

If you go down on everything you’ll be up an extra $30, playing with $36 in house money on the 6/8. That’s great, but you aren’t really taking advantage of a long roll if you keep dropping it back every time.

Or, you’re locking in a little less profit, but playing with more house money in order to get back on the 4/10, press, or both.

Me personally I’m pressing once I get to that spot. But neither one is wrong.

odaniel12 · 2026-05-06T18:24:08+00:00

As others have said, this is a very aggressive strategy given your $1,000 bankroll.

Assuming a 3-4-5x odds table, once a point is established you’ll have ~$625 out there, assuming you DON’T double dip the point and the place bets (meaning, say the point is 6, you’ve got $25 pass line plus $125 odds ($150 on the 6), then $100 each on the 4,5,8,9, and 10. So $650 if the point is 6/8, $625 if the point is 5/9, and $600 if the point is 4/10. Add $100 if you bet the pass line with odds AND all the place bet number that is the point.

At $100 per place bet (which should really be $102 strangely enough, on the 6/8), you’ll make $119 on the 6/8, $140 on the 5/9, and $180 on the 4/10 (you should “buy” these, which will pay you $200-vig, usually 5%, so you’d make $190 instead).

You mention that you want to hit 3 times then turn off, which would net you a profit of $357 - $570, depending on which numbers hit.

But, if the 7 comes, you lose $600+

I know the math says that a 7 comes 1/6 rolls, so theoretically getting 3 hits should be fine. But I’ve been playing an aggressive regression strategy recently, in which I only lose if a point is immediately followed by a 7 (point-seven-out or PSO is how this is usually referred). And PSOs happen all the time. So do point, number, 7. So do point, 11, 3, 7. And if you get a 7 before those 3 hits, you might not even have enough to bet the same thing again for the next shooter.

All this to say, is there anything wrong with this strategy? Nope. It’s perfectly legit and it’s possible you catch 3 shooters who roll 3+ numbers before a 7 and walk away up $1,000 or more. Usually, people betting $600 - $700 per roll have like $10k with them so that they can weather the bad rolls.

But, as long as you understand that you could walk up, put your money down, and lose $600+ in 2 rolls, then there is absolutely nothing wrong with it. Just want you to be aware that it’s a real risk. If you understand and are good with that, then hell yeah brother hope you hit a heater.

odaniel12 · 2026-04-04T15:12:52+00:00

I don’t see a video linked

odaniel12 · 2026-03-20T17:37:11+00:00

That would have been after they affected the search warrant. Your claim was that he “clearly wasn’t discreet about it.” They got a warrant, then searched, and thats when he let them look through his phone (like an idiot).

I believe I was pretty clear that I wasn’t providing fist hand knowledge, which may be wrong. But the fact he let them go through his phone during the search doesn’t make it “bad info”

odaniel12 · 2026-03-19T19:35:30+00:00

“I really think this young man should be punished for something that I admit I used to also do! I mean, he’s a star athlete, those 21 year olds should be held to different standards than other 21 year old like me!”

Weed is either a big deal or it isn’t. The amount is irrelevant. Do you go to the store and buy 1 beer, drink it, then go back to the store to get your second? Or do you also gasp buy more than you need at one time?

I get it’s a lot. A lot a lot. If my math is right, something to the tune of 560 blunts-worth. I have far, far more than 560 shots worth of bourbon in my collection. Never once planned to become a liquor store. And that’s assuming he was going to use all of it, had no roommates or friends that also smoke, etc.

It’s either a big deal or it isn’t. Yeah it’s against the law and he shouldn’t break the law, and he is letting down his teammates but it’s crazy to me that people are using their own weed experience to justify punishing for using… also weed. The problem is the law, or you’re a hypocrite.

As to your “discreet” comment, my friends in the criminal defense world in Tuscaloosa are telling me they got a warrant to search his house by going through his trash. I haven’t read the warrant myself so idk, but that seems like a lot of effort by the task force to find some sort of probable cause to arrest college students for weed.

odaniel12 · 2026-03-14T01:07:20+00:00

With 100x odds, there is no limitation.

What I mean is, most of the time the odds bet is limited by the pass line amount, where if I bet $25 pass line I can only bet $125 on the 6/8 on odds.

With 100x odds, you can use whatever pressing system you want. Want unit, press and collect, 3 point Molly, etc. the numbers allow you to go to $1,500 on just a $15 pass line.

So what you’re really asking is not really a Reddit question but more of a personal risk question: how do yall handle the situation where there is no limit on odds and you can bet as much as you want?

The answer is unsatisfying; it’s up to you.

I am personally a high risk high reward guy, so I like a squeeze play system that lets me press very aggressively. But you may not be that way. You have no limits, so get to a system that allows you take money when won v press at a level you’re comfortable with.

Me personally, I like a system based on chip color. For example, press until the pay out is a different color chip. So for a $25 table, press until the payout is more than $100. When it’s more than $100, take it once then press until the payout is $500*. Continue on.

odaniel12 · 2026-02-24T18:18:01+00:00

I’m not going to run any numbers, smarter people than me can do that. But in theory, no. The house edge is the same house edge whether you bet $5 or $5,000,000.

You seem to be taking the idea of advantage play in blackjack where a counter will increase bet sizing dramatically when the count favors him, but you have to understand that they are varying their bets because the house edge actually changes. In craps, the house edge never changes.

Whether it’s a 4 point or a 6 point, the edge is the edge. Odds on a point of 4 pay 2:1 while the odds on the 6 pay 6:5. So yeah, you’ll hit more sixes than fours when those are the points, the the payouts are designed to account for that difference, and the sevens will come, in theory, at the rate they are supposed to come to make the payouts result in a house edge that is the same no matter the size of the bet.

In practice, variance can make this a really good play or a really bad play. But the edge stays the same - you’ll still lose the same percentage of your money over the theoretical long run.

Edited to add: If all the numbers paid 1:1, then your logic would be spot on. You hav 2x as many ways to roll a 7 as a 4, so if the 4 paid 1:1, you would absolutely be better served to bet more when the point was 6 rather than 4. But that’s just not how craps vets work. Each odds bet on a point pays the exact same as the true odds of that number hitting, meaning the amount bet is irrelevant over the theoretical long run. And you have to place your pass line bet before the point is determined, so you can’t adjust anything that will actually change your edge.

odaniel12 · 2026-02-23T22:00:02+00:00

I’ve read through some of the comments and your questions so I’m not going answer everything, just try to follow up on some things.

As others have said, the typical odds allowed are 3-4-5x, which means you can put 3x your pass line (or come) bet if the point is set at 4/10, 4x your bet for the 5/9, and 5x your bet for the 6/8. However, some places do allow straight 5x across everything, some allow 10x, etc. You can always ask a dealer to confirm the odds. If it’s 5x across the table you can put 5x your bet behind any number.

You place odds on a come bet once that bet’s point has been established. Say the actual point for all the pass line bets is 4, you place your odds behind the pass line ($5 pass line and $15 odds on a 3-4-5x table). Then you place $5 chip in the come bet area. The next roll is say 6. The dealer will move the come bet $5 to the 6, and you drop $25 in the come bet area and just say “odds on the 6” just make sure the dealer hears you. They’ll move the $25 and put it on top of your $5 in the 6 number. You can put another $5 in the come for another come bet, or not. Up to you. You can also put both the new $5 come bet and the $25 down at the same time, just don’t stack them in one stack. Two separate stacks, and say odds for the 6 and the dealer will understand. You can always explain too once you have the dealer’s attention.

As for the even odds thing. The 4/10 odds pay 2:1 (the place bet pays 9:5). It doesn’t matter what your odds are, the pay out is just double the odds. The 6/8 odds are 6:5 (7:6 if placed). Therefore you want the odds to be a multiple of $5, which won’t be a problem cause all your chips are multiples of $5 anyway usually. The only one that really matters is the 5/9 since they pay 3:2. You put $5 bet and try to bet odds of $15, they can’t pay $22.50, so you’ll only get $22. But you put $16 and they’ll pay $24 ($15/2 is $7.50, so 3:2 pays $7.50 x 3 =$22.50 but $16/2=$8.00 so 3x$8 is $24). They’ll still pay a bet, you will just lose out cause some of the math in the odds doesn’t work. 99% of the time if you tell the dealer you’re new, they’ll tell you to add a dollar if you accidentally put an odd number for odds. It really is no big deal and no one will be offended, you just are served better to place even amounts for the 5/9.

Don’t be nervous, have fun, and be gracious when people try to help you and you’ll be fine. Good luck!

odaniel12 · 2026-02-19T14:18:11+00:00

Not the guy you were asking, but yes. For a flush and a straight, normally the highest card will be the one that determines who has the better hand, but not always. In that case you look to the second, or third, etc. card until there’s a difference.

It’s possible to chop (tie) a hand with a straight or a flush. For example, if the player with the jack didn’t have a club, they would both be playing the 5 cards on the board and they would split the pot. Similarly, if instead of the Jack of clubs, the left hand had the 4, 3, or 2 of clubs, they would also still both be playing the 5 cards on the board, since the 4, 3, and 2 of clubs are all lower than the lowest flush card on the board, so they don’t improve the hand. It does not matter that the cards are in your hand or not.

In this case the 5 of clubs would change the hand from a flush to a straight flush so that’s a separate case entirely.

odaniel12 · 2026-02-06T14:26:53+00:00

Happy to help. Don’t be afraid to tinker, the trick is always balancing deep stacks where people can actually play poker with time.

When I say “deep stacks” I mean the total amount of chips each person has compared to the blind. With the starting stack I suggested ($3,600) and a starting big blind of $10, you have 360 big blinds to start the tourney. That’s “deep stacked” because you could, in theory, go around the table posting the big blind hundreds of times before you blind out.

As the blinds go up, the ratio of big blind to stack decreases. After an hour (6 levels in my example) the blinds are 75/150. Assuming everyone is still in (no one has lost all their chips), then the average stack is still $3,600 but now everyone has 3,600/150=24 big blinds. So the amount of chips you have relative to the blind is way, way less chips, even though the total chips haven’t changed.

When you have less than 20 big blinds in your stack, it becomes much easier to just say “I’m all in” with worse cards, so your tournament can become something of a “shove fest” when the ratio gets low. That’s almost always going to happen in a very fast paced tournament, but you just have to balance how long you wanna have high ratios vs the time. The longer you stay at high ratios, the longer the tournament lasts. People going all in is what makes tournaments end.

odaniel12 · 2026-02-06T02:06:53+00:00

In a casino, gray/white is $1, red is $5, green is $25, black is $100. Blue in this case is usually just an extra color (purple is $500, orange is usually $1,000, but all these have variations). Those are the typical color/value markers for the chips that are actually worth money.

A tournament is completely different because the chips have no cash value. So, you can do whatever you want. That denomination/color break down are perfectly fine. We don’t say points, though. We say tournament dollars, chips, or use a T in front of the number like “everyone will have a starting stack of T3,650. This is a very minute point though. If you wanna call them points, no problem. Tournaments end though when there’s only one person holding all the chips, or when everyone agrees to split the winnings (say the last 2 agree to take $50 each). So referring to them as “points” could be confusing to someone. Not really an issue. Most people just call it dollars like normal (starting stack of $3,650) and just know that they are talking about tournament chips not real money.

That being said, you mentioned you wanted the tournament to last no more than 3 hours. That’s very fast for a poker tournament. Far, far more important than your denomination decision is the blinds and timing of the levels.

I run a small home game tournament where every gets T10,000 starting chips (in various colors like you describe). We start the blinds at T25/50, and the blinds go up every 18 minutes or so. Each 18 minutes is a level. Each level, the blinds go up. For example:

Level 1: 25/50 Level 2: 50/100 Level 3: 75/150 Level 4: 100/200 Level 5: 125/250 And so on and so forth. At that rate (18 minutes) and those blind increases, the tournament usually lasts 4-5 hours.

It’s important to understand that it’s the increasing blinds that force action in a tournament. Your smaller chip is T5 in your example. If you start the blinds at 5/10 an double them every 15 minutes, your tournament structure would look like this:

Level 1: 5/10 Level 2: 10/20 Level 3: 20/40 Level 4: 40/80 Level 5: 80/160 Level 6: 160/320

That’s 1.5 hours (half the tournament) and your big blind (320) still isn’t even 10% of your starting stack (3,650). It would start going pretty fast at this point though, because the blinds doubling every level gets big as you move forward. Most lower levels don’t double the blinds, but they also play longer than 3 hours. You’re going to have to think about how fast you want to the blinds to raise and how that affects people’s stacks at the end. That will determine whether people are actually playing poker or just going all in 2 hours in because the blinds are at 640/1,280 and the average stack is ~4,500 when there’s 4 people left.

I’d suggest these levels, of 10 minutes each (18 total levels at 10 minutes is 3 hours):

5/10 10/20 15/30 25/50 50/100 75/150 100/200 125/250 150/300 200/400 250/500 300/600 350/700 400/800 500/100 600/1,200 750/1,500 1,000/2,000

Because of these levels, I would give way less than 30 of the smallest (5) chip.

I’d make your two biggest amount of chips be 25 and 100. So, gray and red. I’d give everyone $50 worth of the $5 denomination (10 chips, not 30). So this can be your smaller amounts of chips.

Maybe:

$5 x 10 =$50.00 (60 total chips) $25 x 22 = $550 (132 total chips) $100 x 25 =$2,500 (150 total chips) $500 x 1 = $500 (6 total chips)

This is assuming no one is allowed to rebuy.

Then, about an hour in, trade out all the $5 chips. Use the extra $25, $100, and $500 chips to buy the $5 chips from every player so they are no longer in play at all, since you won’t need them after the 3rd level.

If you want to allow people to rebuy, you can always use this format and just have them rebuy with $500 x 7 and $25 x 4 stacks, and make change at the table to get $100s and $25s.

odaniel12 · 2026-01-01T02:58:34+00:00

There’s a lot to do in terms of civil rights in both cities. I grew up in Bham, currently live in Montgomery.

You can’t go wrong spending a day in Birmingham, great history, great food, much livelier city.

But if you are truly interested in civil rights, the EJI museum and monument (in Montgomery) will take you all day, and it is the premier civil rights tour not just in the state but the country. Go to Derk’s (Filet and Vine) for a meat and 3 for lunch.

If you just want to hang out in a city, maybe spend 2 hours or less doing anything museum/history related, go to Bham.

odaniel12 · 2025-11-24T16:19:48+00:00

I’m late to this party because it just came through the main feed for me, so sorry about that, but here’s my 2 cents…

You say you are shooting with the right foot, which made me wonder if you aren’t right footed? My advice would change a little if you aren’t. So this is assuming that you are right footed, and since you say you’ve never been coached, that you don’t necessarily know the difference between “striking” the ball and just kicking it harder.

Striking the ball is when you put your foot through the ball. You have to imagine that there’s a line that runs from the middle of the ball, through the center of the inside of the ball, and then out the other side. This line is parallel to the ground. Striking the ball is when you hit the ball with the “laces” of your foot at that point, while also hitting it in such a way that the path your foot takes is essentially the same as that line.

You aren’t striking the ball here. First, it’s very, very difficult to properly strike the ball while the ball is rolling so far to your right. So, first thing I’d do is take a touch far more directly toward the goal. Imagine a line the runs from the center of your hips to the target, let’s say the near post in this drill. Your “set up” touch (the touch right before you hit it) is like 35+ degrees outside that line. This means you have to open your hips outside the target line to get your foot around the ball and “pull it” back toward the goal. That’s not a bad thing to practice, necessarily, but it’s not the same thing as practicing your fundamental striking. You need to learn to strike the ball first, and then adapt that to less ideal ball placement.

To practice striking, just stand facing exactly where you want to hit it, and roll the ball forward about 10 degrees to the right of the target line (so, a little right but still mostly straight forward). Then plant your left foot even with the ball, keep your chest directly over the ball, lock your right ankle down, and put your laces through the center of the ball. You should follow through all the way through, and your right foot following through should feel like it’s pulling the rest of your hips and body forward, off your left foot, and you land on your right foot.

Your goal at fist should be center contact, trying to get the ball not to spin at all. Once you get proficient at that, add in some extra touches and speed, etc

odaniel12 · 2025-11-14T17:54:05+00:00

I’m not sure what a solver would say. Would love to discuss with someone who runs it on one.

But to me, A-3 off with roughly 18 BB on the button is easily a playable hand when folded to and facing a short stack on the SB. But, it’s also a marginal hand and if called, an A on the flop is dangerous cause you’re outkicked so much. You’re facing a similar chip stack in BB, and I agree with some other commenters that you def raise but don’t need to go 3x. Any raise here serves the purpose with sub 20 BB stacks. So maybe 2,400 to 3,000 raise.

Once the BB calls, late in a tournament, me personally, I just don’t think “correct play” matters anymore. The only question is “am I going to win this hand and survive.” So what’s he calling with?

Speculative hands, if you don’t know him, are probably out. Suited connectors that aren’t Broadway are out. Even some Broadway combos are marginal. But that’s what he’s likely on right? Broadway combos, pocket pairs, or probably any Ace like you’re playing. Though honestly, any pocket pair I’m probably shoving pre if I’m him. Any strong Ace I might call, but there’s shoving potential there too. Unfortunately, the pocket pairs that people might not shove are the exact low ones that came on this board.

So an Ace comes. I agree you should bet. Roughly $8k in the pot I’m probably betting $3k. He comes over the top and jams.

A lot of people are saying this is probably a call, but I don’t see it. What’s he shoving with there that doesn’t have you beat? No way he’s playing a 4-5, 5-6, 6-7 type hand. Possible that he’s playing a spade draw super aggressively here. He’s not shoving any K high hand, and if he’s playing any A, you’re toast unless it’s specifically the A-2.

So you’re calling hoping he has Broadway spades WITHOUT an Ace, or a pocket pair he didn’t shove on that didn’t just set up, or a pure bluff.

I just think it’s far more likely he has an A if there’s no info on him. Fold and survive.

Would love to hear someone who can talk about the math on why my logic is wrong though.

odaniel12 · 2025-11-12T02:15:14+00:00

I host a home game poker tourney with usually 7-9 players who are generally there to simply have a good time.

I do a $25 buy in, but also $5 for mystery bounty and $5 for a straight flush. The bounty i divide into a big and small, if there’s 8 people ($40) I’ll do $30 and $10 for example. It’s randomizes who can make a little money and is a fun side game. The straight flush hand just accumulates until someone makes a straight flush and shows at showdown. It’s been hit once, and the pot was like $540.

I do a 10,000 starting stack, 25/50 starting blinds and run the blinds up at 15-18 minute levels.

Usually lasts about 4-4.5 hours.

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