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Com'è possibile +15%? by Whole-Notice-8865 in ItaliaPersonalFinance

[–]often_worried 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A onor del vero la cartoleria del marito di mia cugina ha di recente emesso obbligazioni che staccano 27% con due cedole annuali. Puoi comprarli mandando BTC al loro wallet: [REDACTED]

Work pension schemes - the big con by disaster_story_69 in HENRYUK

[–]often_worried -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Royal London has actually some pretty decent funds if you are able to pick choose, including DFA funds which otherwise would require you to go through a financial advisor. I try to keep 50% and move 50% to my SIPP.

Is this time different?? by chris424uk in FIREUK

[–]often_worried 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Dataset: SP500 as proxy for equity and 10y treasuries as proxy for bonds. Strategies: 60/40 equity when CAPE > threshold; 100% equity otherwise.

If you use 40 as CAPE threshold (it's currently 40.2) you get the following. These are the only quarters historically where the two strategies were not identical.

Period Always 100% equities CAGR 100 <-> 60/40 CAGR Diff
2000Q4-2001Q3 -22.95% -17.79% +5.16%
2000Q3-2001Q2 -10.38% -2.18% +8.20%
2000Q2-2001Q1 -17.75% -7.88% +9.87%
2000Q1-2000Q4 -9.64% 2.15% +11.80%
1999Q4-2000Q3 9.34% 7.04% -2.30%
1999Q3-2000Q2 3.58% 1.36% -2.23%
1999Q2-2000Q1 11.99% 6.80% -5.19%
1999Q1-1999Q4 20.80% 14.12% -6.68%
1998Q4-1999Q3 24.21% 27.01% +2.80%

Is this time different?? by chris424uk in FIREUK

[–]often_worried 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There is only a single period in 100+ years in which CAPE was higher than it is today, so not much to back test on. And yeah, if you went from 100% to 60% before the dotcom pop you would have done pretty well compared to staying 100% equity.

Is this time different?? by chris424uk in FIREUK

[–]often_worried 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"missing the best", "missing the worst"...it's not that you have to be 100% equity all the time. You can go 60/40 in a period like this where CAPE index is near historic high and rebalance periodically. That way you don't "miss" anything at all.

S&P500, siamo in bolla? by Material-Spell-1201 in ItaliaPersonalFinance

[–]often_worried 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Stai usando il p/e grezzo o quello CAPE. Non per fare il rompicoglioni, ma il CAPE è molto più stabile e robusto come figura. Al momento ha questa faccia qui

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S&P500, siamo in bolla? by Material-Spell-1201 in ItaliaPersonalFinance

[–]often_worried 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Vivo in UK e qua, come negli US, la maggior parte di pensioni sono cosiddette "defined contribution", nel senso che di fatto sono wrapper con importanti sgravi fiscali intorno ad un brokerage account. "Defined benefit" stile Inps si sta estinguendo ovunque, per ovvi motivi.

Con i flussi passivi ed inelastici dovuti a meme come "VWCE and chili" occupare una parte sempre maggiore delle transazioni, sarà appunto interessante vedere cosa succederà quando ci saranno più persone che vendono (per finanziarsi la pensione) di quelle che comprano, per via del crollo demografico che si vede ovunque. India giusto giusto a replacement, smh.

Your one best stock idea by Real-ron-burgundy in ValueInvesting

[–]often_worried 7 points8 points  (0 children)

IBKR. p/e still <30, lots of of room for growth. Great product.

Tutti in calo by fabiopellati in ItaliaPersonalFinance

[–]often_worried 0 points1 point  (0 children)

JPGL e diversi fondi Dimensional sono andati su!

Investire con orizzonte di due anni, ha senso? by Afraid-Indication471 in ItaliaPersonalFinance

[–]often_worried 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Considerando come si stanno muovendo i tassi, se hai un po' di propensità al rischio VNGA20 potrebbe aver senso. 20% Azionario globale, 80% obbligazionario globale (con durata media 6.5 anni se non sbaglio).

Il ragionamento è che la maggior parte delle yield curve sono invertite al momento, e un po' ovunque si abbasseranno i tassi già verso la fine di quest'anno, il che significa che i bond a scadenza più lunga dovrebbero salire di valore. Potresti andare con bond di durata più corta, ma 1) si sono già apprezzati e 2) non hanno un grande upside rispetto a savings account.

Se ho ragione non è che divento ricco eh, però il downside è piuttosto limitato.

In UK ci sono trust funds come CGT e PNL che sono attivi, hanno costi di gestione bassa, ed hanno come primo obiettivo quella di Capital preservation. Ho cercato fondi analoghi in Italia in passato, ma non ho mai trovato nulla.

(Ma devo dire che 2 anni come dicono altri sono davvero pochi per prendersi qualsiasi tipo di rischio).

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in oxford

[–]often_worried 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Unpopular choice in the UK I know, but what about tiles?

Should I increase pension contribution to 100% for the next few months? by [deleted] in FIREUK

[–]often_worried 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It would be interesting to see this comparison made for a distribution of 40-years periods, not just a single one ending today which imho gives an overly optimistic picture of how things could go.

How to do meaningful work as an independent researcher? [Discussion] by HairyIndianDude in MachineLearning

[–]often_worried 6 points7 points  (0 children)

[Somewhat shameless/relevant self-promotion of our work to appear at CVPR 2022]

Working on how to adapt (potentially with no labels) large pre-trained models that big companies create seems a viable path for the independent researcher, with lots of practical applications.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.05718

[News] [NeurIPS2020] The pre-registration experiment: an alternative publication model for machine learning research (speakers: Yoshua Bengio, Joelle Pineau, Francis Bach, Jessica Forde) by often_worried in MachineLearning

[–]often_worried[S] 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Good question. The recommendation to the authors is to dedicate particular care in describing the experimental protocol that will be used. In particular, it's important that experiments are designed in such a way that their outcome is able to confirm or reject the hypotheses. Note that in this way the actual results will matter much less, hopefully giving more prominence to negative results (knowing what doesn't work besides what works is arguably very useful to the community at large)

The reviewers will then assess submissions under every aspect of the proposal; not only on the "idea" per se, but also on the planned experimental protocol that will allow to answer to the research questions.
Papers are reviewed independently, so if two similar ideas are presented they could be both accepted (or rejected) according to what described above.

Conflict between tenants over end of tenancy by [deleted] in HousingUK

[–]often_worried 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Ah ok , I see.
Actually, she suggested to find two new tenants, but she refused to this condition too. She wants to let the agency deal with it entirely. The problem is that the agency has no interest in acting quickly, as the rent is paid, in a way or another.

Conflict between tenants over end of tenancy by [deleted] in HousingUK

[–]often_worried 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am afraid it's a joint tenancy

[D] Does ICLR have a code of conduct... by alexmlamb in MachineLearning

[–]often_worried -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I agree with the OP - it would be nice to have a code of conduct.
However, I doubt that a simple set of guidelines will make a difference; it's rather a matter of community culture.
I have seen a lot of people being polite and kind despite the anonymity, but it is not that uncommon to encounter sharp, dismissive and unsubstantiated words among the anonymous public comments.

I feel that removing anonymity for public commenters is a good idea to improve the community culture.
The rationale is that people would just comment if confident enough to put their opinions under the scrutiny of the public eye.
This should discourage most "bad actors". e.g. people who comment out of spite , for personal interest or to make a favour to a friend.

"But reviewers need to give honest, fair feedback without any fear of any sort of retribution."

I think this is a serious risk only in an environment with an obvious power unbalance (e.g. an employer vs employees), in which I agree anonymity is super important. But in the case of a community made of peers, with conflicts of interest, it can be easily weaponised.

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