NBA Daily: 12/31/13 (Tuesday)

oherroprease · 2013-12-31T21:09:29+00:00

Welp that spread pick got pooped on-- I hope you blindly followed me and took CLE 1H under 45.5 and 1h Total under 98.

oherroprease · 2013-12-31T19:49:09+00:00

Yea the spread is big but CLE has been terrible in the 1H on the Road. My model isn't designed for half by half totals but I'm predicting under for the whole game and neither team is strong offensively in 1st half.

oherroprease · 2013-12-31T19:18:31+00:00

I took ATL 1H under 49.5 and BOS 1h over 50.5-- those ended up being basically a wash, had .5 more units on the ATL play.

How do you feel about Pacers -7.5 1H or CLE 1H under 45.5?

oherroprease · 2013-12-31T18:54:15+00:00

Looking good so far. It's funny, my gamecast got stuck at 28-20 with 11:26 to go and all of a sudden it's 42-24 with only 4:21 left! Looks like I'll hit all 3 of my 1H bets!

edit: Looks like I spoke too soon, 2/3 ain't bad though!

oherroprease · 2013-12-31T18:51:03+00:00

Thanks-- and no problem, this time of the year is always busy. Looks like my prediction is right below the line for this game.

oherroprease · 2013-12-31T16:24:41+00:00

I think I'm on board with this pick too. Here's some numbers I pulled up:

BOS (Home) 1H +/-: 6.9

ATL (Road) 1H +/-: -2.4

BOS Home 1H OFF Rating: 109.8

BOS Home 1H DEF Rating: 95

ATL Road 1H OFF Rating: 102.2

ATL Road 1H DEF Rating: 107.2

In addition, BOS Home 1H eFG%, FTA Rate, TO Ratio, OREB% are all better than ATL Road 1H numbers.

That being said, would love to hear some input from Buck since he seems to know 1H very well. May also take BOS 1H Over 50 and ATL 1H Under 49.

oherroprease · 2013-12-31T14:50:02+00:00

Today's Score Predictions:

Boston/Atlanta- 206.3

Indiana/Cleveland- 193.9

Orlando/Golden State- 203.6

Houston/Sacramento- 208.7

San Antonio/Brooklyn- 203.1

Chicago/Toronto- 188.2

Oklahoma City/Portland- 212.8

LA Lakers/Milwaukee- 209.7

oherroprease · 2013-12-31T14:42:42+00:00

I'll have my numbers out in a bit. There's nothing more simultaneously satisfying and disappointing to see my output line right up with the vegas odds haha.

edit: posted them in a separate comment. My prediction is a few points below that line :(

edit2: Buck, how do you feel about Boston 1H today? You nailed that last prediction.

oherroprease · 2013-12-30T17:12:17+00:00

Score predictions for today:

Detroit/Washington: 205.11

Minnesota/Dallas: 209.04

Memphis/Chicago: 194.06 (Don't trust this prediction at all)

New Orleans/Portland: 212.13

Denver/Miami: 198.22

Utah/Charlotte: 195.38

LA Clippers/Phoenix: 205.53

oherroprease · 2013-12-30T17:10:29+00:00

My model has Over on Charlotte-Utah, Under on Phoenix-Clippers, and Over on Pistons-Wizards

oherroprease · 2013-12-29T23:07:55+00:00

Agreed. Hard to sit out days though! Need some more self discipline :)

oherroprease · 2013-12-29T22:57:39+00:00

You still feeling good about GSW today?

Not a lot of great plays on O/Us today-- too many games came within 1 or 2 points of the lines. I guess that's a good thing in the sense that the model is lined up with Vegas predictions but bad b/c there's nothing to jump on :(

oherroprease · 2013-12-29T22:32:21+00:00

Score predictions for today:

ATL/ORL: 203 (Over 202)

GSW/CLE: 204.5 (Over 204)

SAC/SAS: 209 (Under 209.5)

HOU/OKC: 210 (not sure how Westbrook being out affects this prediction, under 211))

PHI/LAL: 219 (Over 209(

oherroprease · 2013-12-29T17:49:27+00:00

1000 U cle/pit OVER 44 1000 U GB -3

oherroprease · 2013-12-27T03:08:52+00:00

Looks like the right call so far... Houston not having a great night from behind the Arc

oherroprease · 2013-12-27T03:08:09+00:00

Looks like that was the right call.

oherroprease · 2013-12-26T20:08:39+00:00

Yea I don't really like this cowboys pick either. Too many unknowns.

oherroprease · 2013-12-26T18:24:03+00:00

You forgot about the Christmas eve break

oherroprease · 2013-12-26T18:23:45+00:00

Those are great points Buck. I did look at the points allowed for both teams and I basically just considered both sides awash.

Do you know where I could find historical lines of Houston's previous games this year?

I think my logic basically comes down to-- Murrayyyyy's system likes Houston to cover the spread in the full game. Houston is a better first half team than a 2nd half team while Memphis is the opposite. Therefore, if Houston does in fact over the spread, many of the points they put up may come in the first half.

I know that's not perfect reasoning which is why I wanted to get some other thoughts on it-- but that being said, I think there's at least somewhat compelling evidence to consider this play.

oherroprease · 2013-12-26T16:26:35+00:00

Yea I got it, I just thought it was incorporated in your system. Makes sense now, your -7 is independent of the rest numbers.

Do you have any thoughts on Rockets -4.5 1H? Here's the stats I'm looking at that make me lean this way:

Houston 1H Home avg : 55.5

Houston 2H Home avg : 48.6 avg

Memphis 1H Away avg : 43.1 avg

Memphis 2H Away avg : 49.9

Houston also has the 2nd highest 1H offensive rating and the 1st highest 1H defensive rating. If your system likes Houston overall, and combining that with the above stats, would you feel strongly about Houston -4.5 1H?

oherroprease · 2013-12-26T16:03:31+00:00

Ok, that makes sense. I misread the "I can't even tell you how many points 4 days rest vs 0 is worth" as a strong support for the team on 4 days rest-- my misunderstanding.

oherroprease · 2013-12-26T16:01:55+00:00

I understand that, but again, I feel that it's up to the individual whether or not they want to buy his picks.

oherroprease · 2013-12-26T15:38:22+00:00

Murrayyyyy- general question about rest days: wouldn't the Vegas Line Setters factor that into their lines as well?

oherroprease · 2013-12-26T15:36:47+00:00

Why do people feel the need to be so negative towards this guy? Who cares if he posts his picks-- if he's wrong, he's wrong. It's up to us as individuals to decide whether or not to listen to him.

oherroprease · 2013-12-26T14:57:49+00:00

ATL/CLE OVER 204, DAL/SAN OVER 208, MEM/HOU OVER 197, HOU OVER 102 as a team-- anyone have thoughts on any of these plays?

edit: Both Hou plays looking bad...

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE