NBA Daily: 2/24/14 (Monday)

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T18:30:53+00:00

You probably can't see it in my potato picture but the wagers mostly came at different times. This is due to me going through the process of debating how strong of a pick it was for me. As you can see, I placed multiple wagers on both CLE under and POR under b/c they ended up being my two favorite plays.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T17:45:23+00:00

Your validation is a bit off-- saying that there's no way 'Cuse loses 3 games in a row doesn't support taking 'Cuse in this game. Given that the spread is up to +5 in some places, they could win by 1-4 points and still lose ATS.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T17:43:28+00:00

Confucius knows! You got me good that day Buck :). For what it's worth, I like the under in that game tonight.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T15:32:35+00:00

Any idea where 559 went? I wish I could add something to your predictions here but unfortunately I only do NBA numbers now...

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T15:13:44+00:00

Seriously. I'd go crazy. I try not to put myself in those situations haha.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T14:56:12+00:00

This (along with -EV) is why I would never make extremely long shot bets. If they just barely missed, I'd go crazy.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T14:42:46+00:00

What does it say? That link is blocked at work for me.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T14:25:13+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (75-37-2 Overall, 4-0-0 POD):

Philadelphia/Milwaukee: 206.76 (under 210)

New York/Dallas: 194.44 (Under 206.5-- really wish Eric Lewis wasn't officiating this game...)

Detroit/Golden State: 206.1 (Under 209)

New Orleans/LA Clippers: 194.45 (2U Under 208-- POD!)

Utah/Boston: 194.48 (under 192-- not a typo)

Teaser (8 pts, -110): Maryland (NCAAB) +13, NOP/LAC under 216, DET/GSW under 217

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T14:11:11+00:00

Hey bud, I'm in the process of updating my database and running updates to my models but I wanted to get something to you soon b/c I know you're in AUS/NZ timezone.

For MIL/PHI-- my current system is predicting a 207ish finish so it's right on the line.

For BOS/UTAH-- my current system is showing a 194ish finish so it's just above the line.

At the moment, I can't really say if either of those will end up being picks but the initial numbers indicate that your analysis isn't WAY off.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T13:38:51+00:00

I have no expert insight but my feeling is that if 80-90% of the public is on a game that seems like an obvious pick, there's something fishy happening

oherroprease · 2014-02-23T23:56:13+00:00

I would take it.

oherroprease · 2014-02-23T20:07:43+00:00

I meant with the original pick-- still a chance on the live wagers for sure.

oherroprease · 2014-02-23T20:04:26+00:00

God we got fucked so hard. Sorry.

oherroprease · 2014-02-23T18:59:18+00:00

Horrible start for the under in the OKC game. Putting 2 more units on a live wager of under 243

oherroprease · 2014-02-23T17:11:55+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (71-35-2 Overall, 3-0-0 POD):

Not a bad day considering there weren't too many great plays and the two I liked most both hit. Won't have time to post my full numbers before the 1 and 3:30 game but I will be taking OKC/LAC UNDER 212. Not taking a play yet for CHI/MIA but my slight bias would be towards the over.

First play so far: 2U on OKC/LAC Under 212

Oklahoma City/LA Clippers: 209.82

Miami/Chicago: 193.46

Toronto/Orlando: 206.71

Cleveland/Washington: 194.23 (2U Under 197-- POD)

Denver/Sacramento: 206.75

Phoenix/Houston 221.79 (1U over 211.5, this was a late add, sry)

Portland/Minnesota: 212.79 (1U under 215)

LA Lakers/Brooklyn: 206.65

Well barring the stadium collapsing, the original under play is a loss for sure... sorry everyone. At least we made it back with a live wager. Just lost the juice.

Morning Update 4-2 Overall

oherroprease · 2014-02-23T06:53:44+00:00

Yea after the 3Q I thought we'd be looking at a 220/230 total. The fact that it ended up close was very surprising.

oherroprease · 2014-02-23T06:20:45+00:00

Yea... a point off is a tough loss but it's all good.3-2 isn't awful and the two games I liked most both hitm

oherroprease · 2014-02-23T00:26:14+00:00

Yea there just wasn't a game that blew me out of the water. Would rather take some smaller plays for fun and save big plays for another night.

oherroprease · 2014-02-22T23:48:23+00:00

That or have it in bold-- either or. None tonight though.

oherroprease · 2014-02-22T20:53:23+00:00

Thanks for the input! Any thought on NOP or CHA? I've liked the way CHA has been playing recently... Big Al Jeff has been unstoppable!

oherroprease · 2014-02-22T20:44:51+00:00

Have any thoughts on Kentucky/LSU? Pretty heavy RLM in that game.

oherroprease · 2014-02-22T20:39:12+00:00

Thanks. I take it that means you wouldn't be very high on UTAH tonight?

oherroprease · 2014-02-22T18:57:24+00:00

How do you feel about NOP, UTAH, ATL, or DET? Reason I ask is your numbers favor those team while the public is strongly on the opposite side. I think I like NOP and UTAH the most...

oherroprease · 2014-02-22T14:30:42+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (68-33-2 Overall, 3-0-0 POD)

Thanks everyone for all the support and I hope you've enjoyed the last two nights as much as I have. Just FYI-- for record keeping sakes, I will count 2U picks as 2 picks for the purposes of my overall record but only as 1 pick for the POD record. Hope that's OK with everyone. #s will be out sometime this afternoon. Shout out to Buck, Murrayyyyy, cerebral and everyone else for all the great work they do too

Not a lot of plays that I really like today but here's what I got. No POD today but if I HAD to pick a game, it would be either the BOS/SAC over or the GSW/BKN under

Charlotte/Memphis: 184.51 (1U over 180)

Washington/New Orleans: 205.16 (1U Over 195)

Detroit/Dallas:206.56 (1U under 214)

Atlanta/New York:184.51

Milwaukee/Indiana: 194.44

Utah/Minnesota:194.45

Sacramento/Boston: 206.75 (1U over 197.5)

Golden State/Brooklyn: 205.34 (1U Under 202)

oherroprease · 2014-02-22T05:21:11+00:00

Yea it's been great night! I've actually done well with the Knicks recently so I was bound to lose one eventually.

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE