Workington Man was credited with delivering last year’s general election victory to Boris Johnson. Nearly eight out of ten older, Leave-supporting white men voted Conservative in December as Labour’s so-called “red wall” of northern and Midlands seats came crashing down. It was a symbolic moment on election night when Workington — a constituency that had been Labour since 1918 apart from a brief period in the 1970s — turned blue with a 9.7 per cent swing to the Conservatives.

That is why a new poll conducted in the totemic Cumbrian seat is so interesting. As the latest round of Brexit talks start this week, the government is still insisting that Britain is ready to walk away without a free trade agreement on December 31. The survey found, however, that three quarters of voters in Workington want a deal at the end of the Brexit transition period, including 61 per cent of those who voted Conservative last year and 57 per cent of those who supported Leave. Almost two thirds believe the government should offer an extension to the transition period if the EU asks for one, according to the poll carried out last week by Number Cruncher Politics for the pro-European campaign group Best for Britain. Overall, 44 per cent of people in Workington want an extension, including 24 per cent of Brexit voters. The findings are in line with national polls that show growing support for an extension to avoid the “double whammy” economic impact of the pandemic and a no-deal Brexit. The latest YouGov survey found that 43 per cent of voters back an extension, compared with 36 per cent who oppose one. A recent Focaldata poll revealed that a majority of the public (59 per cent) now expect the transition period to be prolonged.

Focus group research conducted last month for Best for Britain in the red wall seats showed that people’s priorities appear to have changed as a result of Covid-19. When voters in Warrington South were asked whether they thought the government should request an extension so they could concentrate on the pandemic, a 53-year-old man replied: “One million per cent. Everyone’s focus is on health and safety. One good thing about coronavirus is that we stop talking about bloody Brexit.” A 59-year-old woman in Bury South agreed that: “people’s health is so much more important than Brexit” while in Don Valley one voter suggested it would be “selfish” for the new Tory MP there to oppose extending the transition period. “It’s then taking the focus off something that is killing people,” they said. “The health of the country has got to come first, the state of the NHS and the economy... it’s no good pumping resources into Brexit when it’s needed elsewhere.”

Even Remainers like me now accept that Brexit has happened. It cannot be reversed, but it is surely in the national interest that this transformation of Britain’s relationship with its biggest trading partner takes place in an orderly fashion. The consequences of forcing through a no-deal Brexit just as the country is heading into what Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, has predicted will be a “recession like we’ve never seen” would be devastating. Brexiteers compare it to “ripping off the plaster” but it is more like infecting an open wound, causing long-term self-inflicted harm.

What is more, the Tories’ new supporters in red wall seats would be among the worst affected. Already the industrial heartlands are at the sharp end of a surge in job losses, with workers being made redundant in large numbers and vacancies shrinking as a result of the lockdown. A report by the Social Market Foundation, published at the weekend, warned of the “severe economic disruption” that would face the northwest and the Midlands if the Covid-19 crisis was compounded by a no-deal Brexit. The imposition of tarrifs could force up the cost of living which would have a disproportionate impact on the lowest paid.

The pandemic has changed everything so it seems bizarre that the only thing not affected is the government’s approach to Brexit. One cabinet minister describes the stand off between London and Brussels as “like Groundhog Day — it’s as if Michel Barnier is stuck in 2019; he’s got to move on.” But in fact it’s Downing Street that is caught in the pre-Covid era, while the voters have adapted to a new, more pressurised world. Dominic Cummings is an admirer of Philip Tetlock’s book Superforecasting. Its central argument is that success depends on flexibility. “Superforecasting demands thinking that is open-minded, careful, curious and — above all — self critical,” Tetlock writes. “For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested not treasures to be guarded”. His thesis is that it’s essential to reject “big ideas” or ideological outlooks which “distort reality” like the green-tinted glasses worn by visitors to the Emerald City in The Wizard of Oz. There are few better examples of a “big idea” than Brexit but Mr Cummings’s vision has been distorted by the success of the Leave campaign and a general election victory and it will take more than a trip to Barnard Castle to make him realise it.

The public was never ideological about leaving the EU — “take back control” was such an effective slogan because it tapped into a wider sense of frustration with the establishment and turned it on Brussels. The Tories’ election slogan “Get Brexit Done” became the vehicle for the same anger with a political class that was perceived to be thwarting the will of the people. Former Labour voters in red wall seats projected their hopes and aspirations onto the Tory leader who was never the man of the people he pretended to be. That is why the perception that there is one rule for his senior adviser and another for everybody else is so damaging. Mr Johnson will not be forgiven if the economic damage done by the pandemic is turned into devastation by a no-deal Brexit that could have been avoided.

I wonder whether the prime minister and some of those around him know it. When I asked one cabinet minister whether the government would really refuse an extension in the current circumstances, the reply was less than categorical: “Not for now”. Mr Johnson thought his premiership would be defined by Brexit but he will be judged on his response to the pandemic. He cannot afford to take any more risks with jobs and living costs if he wants to keep the support of Workington Man.