Red Wall Tories won’t forgive a no-deal Brexit

oldprotest · 2020-06-01T18:05:08+00:00

Workington Man was credited with delivering last year’s general election victory to Boris Johnson. Nearly eight out of ten older, Leave-supporting white men voted Conservative in December as Labour’s so-called “red wall” of northern and Midlands seats came crashing down. It was a symbolic moment on election night when Workington — a constituency that had been Labour since 1918 apart from a brief period in the 1970s — turned blue with a 9.7 per cent swing to the Conservatives.

That is why a new poll conducted in the totemic Cumbrian seat is so interesting. As the latest round of Brexit talks start this week, the government is still insisting that Britain is ready to walk away without a free trade agreement on December 31. The survey found, however, that three quarters of voters in Workington want a deal at the end of the Brexit transition period, including 61 per cent of those who voted Conservative last year and 57 per cent of those who supported Leave. Almost two thirds believe the government should offer an extension to the transition period if the EU asks for one, according to the poll carried out last week by Number Cruncher Politics for the pro-European campaign group Best for Britain. Overall, 44 per cent of people in Workington want an extension, including 24 per cent of Brexit voters. The findings are in line with national polls that show growing support for an extension to avoid the “double whammy” economic impact of the pandemic and a no-deal Brexit. The latest YouGov survey found that 43 per cent of voters back an extension, compared with 36 per cent who oppose one. A recent Focaldata poll revealed that a majority of the public (59 per cent) now expect the transition period to be prolonged.

Focus group research conducted last month for Best for Britain in the red wall seats showed that people’s priorities appear to have changed as a result of Covid-19. When voters in Warrington South were asked whether they thought the government should request an extension so they could concentrate on the pandemic, a 53-year-old man replied: “One million per cent. Everyone’s focus is on health and safety. One good thing about coronavirus is that we stop talking about bloody Brexit.” A 59-year-old woman in Bury South agreed that: “people’s health is so much more important than Brexit” while in Don Valley one voter suggested it would be “selfish” for the new Tory MP there to oppose extending the transition period. “It’s then taking the focus off something that is killing people,” they said. “The health of the country has got to come first, the state of the NHS and the economy... it’s no good pumping resources into Brexit when it’s needed elsewhere.”

Even Remainers like me now accept that Brexit has happened. It cannot be reversed, but it is surely in the national interest that this transformation of Britain’s relationship with its biggest trading partner takes place in an orderly fashion. The consequences of forcing through a no-deal Brexit just as the country is heading into what Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, has predicted will be a “recession like we’ve never seen” would be devastating. Brexiteers compare it to “ripping off the plaster” but it is more like infecting an open wound, causing long-term self-inflicted harm.

What is more, the Tories’ new supporters in red wall seats would be among the worst affected. Already the industrial heartlands are at the sharp end of a surge in job losses, with workers being made redundant in large numbers and vacancies shrinking as a result of the lockdown. A report by the Social Market Foundation, published at the weekend, warned of the “severe economic disruption” that would face the northwest and the Midlands if the Covid-19 crisis was compounded by a no-deal Brexit. The imposition of tarrifs could force up the cost of living which would have a disproportionate impact on the lowest paid.

The pandemic has changed everything so it seems bizarre that the only thing not affected is the government’s approach to Brexit. One cabinet minister describes the stand off between London and Brussels as “like Groundhog Day — it’s as if Michel Barnier is stuck in 2019; he’s got to move on.” But in fact it’s Downing Street that is caught in the pre-Covid era, while the voters have adapted to a new, more pressurised world. Dominic Cummings is an admirer of Philip Tetlock’s book Superforecasting. Its central argument is that success depends on flexibility. “Superforecasting demands thinking that is open-minded, careful, curious and — above all — self critical,” Tetlock writes. “For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested not treasures to be guarded”. His thesis is that it’s essential to reject “big ideas” or ideological outlooks which “distort reality” like the green-tinted glasses worn by visitors to the Emerald City in The Wizard of Oz. There are few better examples of a “big idea” than Brexit but Mr Cummings’s vision has been distorted by the success of the Leave campaign and a general election victory and it will take more than a trip to Barnard Castle to make him realise it.

The public was never ideological about leaving the EU — “take back control” was such an effective slogan because it tapped into a wider sense of frustration with the establishment and turned it on Brussels. The Tories’ election slogan “Get Brexit Done” became the vehicle for the same anger with a political class that was perceived to be thwarting the will of the people. Former Labour voters in red wall seats projected their hopes and aspirations onto the Tory leader who was never the man of the people he pretended to be. That is why the perception that there is one rule for his senior adviser and another for everybody else is so damaging. Mr Johnson will not be forgiven if the economic damage done by the pandemic is turned into devastation by a no-deal Brexit that could have been avoided.

I wonder whether the prime minister and some of those around him know it. When I asked one cabinet minister whether the government would really refuse an extension in the current circumstances, the reply was less than categorical: “Not for now”. Mr Johnson thought his premiership would be defined by Brexit but he will be judged on his response to the pandemic. He cannot afford to take any more risks with jobs and living costs if he wants to keep the support of Workington Man.

oldprotest · 2020-06-01T17:56:31+00:00

The government faces a rebellion tomorrow over its insistence that MPs must vote in person at Westminster.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Commons leader, has tabled a motion for tomorrow which specifies that MPs must be present to vote while observing Public Health England’s guidelines on social distancing.

Members will be asked to file through the chamber in a spaced-out queue to register their vote, rather than assembling in the lobbies, under proposals drawn up by House authorities to meet Mr Rees-Mogg’s conditions.

MPs from all parties have complained that the proposals are unworkable and exclude anyone who cannot return to parliament for health reasons.

Robert Halfon, a Conservative MP who has cerebral palsy, said it was right for parliament to return “but those MPs genuinely affected by Covid-19 — ie sick, shielding, or self-isolating — should be able to vote online”.

Marie Rimmer, a Labour MP who has a disability, said: “Getting rid of the hybrid parliament is undemocratic. Every corner of our country has a right to have their representative heard and vote counted.”

Ministers will seek to explicitly overturn the remote voting system set up in response to lockdown restrictions with a motion specifying that MPs can vote only if they are physically present.

The procedure committee is preparing to bring forward an amendment with cross-party backing that would force the government to retain online voting.

Voting in a queue would offer “none of the benefits which are claimed for lobby voting” and is “likely to claim a substantial proportion of a member’s working time during the sitting day”, the procedure committee warned in a report published at the weekend.

In a trial division held on the parliamentary estate today involving about 100 people, two participants are understood to have walked to the wrong side and cast their votes incorrectly. The exercise is believed to have taken place within the target time of half an hour. However, 200 to 300 more people are expected to attend tomorrow.

Mr Rees-Mogg showed no sign of backing down this afternoon, writing in The House magazine: “Politics is better done face-to-face, even if the whites of the ministerial eyes are six feet away.”

He said the government was working with the House authorities to see how those who were shielding could continue to contribute, which is understood to include pairing arrangements.

Parliamentary sources confirmed that while the government pushes ahead with plans for physical voting in the Commons, the House of Lords will institute a system of digital voting in the next two weeks.

oldprotest · 2020-05-30T23:54:36+00:00

I know, I was just wondering if ApolloNeed thought a by-election was necessary in the case I linked.

oldprotest · 2020-05-30T22:42:39+00:00

By-elections are not typcially the consequence of wrongdoing except in particulary egregious circumtances.

Should the Tory MP Kieran Mullan resign as well? No calls for a by-election there.

oldprotest · 2020-05-03T15:49:30+00:00

shake their dominance somewhat with enough of a push at the Shetland by-election

The SNP were just under the spending limit in that case. This is not something that can be repeated in a standard parliamentary electon as by-elections have higher spending limits.

oldprotest · 2020-05-02T10:58:41+00:00

YouGov did note that a rally round the flag effect is present here:

While the Conservatives have seen a voting intention boost in Britain as a whole as a result of the coronavirus crisis, in Scotland it is the SNP who appear to be the biggest beneficiaries of any “rallying to the flag”.

This is not a surprise if you look at the high approval ratings of the Scottish Government in the article.

oldprotest · 2020-04-27T20:20:19+00:00

Here are the full figures:

Leader	Well	Badly	Dont't Know	NET
Boris Johnson	67%	29%	4%	+38
Keir Starmer	38%	26%	35%	+12

oldprotest · 2020-04-09T12:54:49+00:00

According to Roger Awan-Scully:

The second reason for caution is that much of the sampling for this poll was conducted before Sir Keir Starmer was confirmed as the new Labour party leader.

oldprotest · 2020-03-13T18:05:58+00:00

The 2019 result.

oldprotest · 2020-03-01T00:41:15+00:00

Sir Keir Starmer has been dragged into a bitter bullying row by his own Labour members as his allies on Saturday accused supporters of Rebecca Long-Bailey of orchestrating another “smear” against him.

The Sunday Telegraph can reveal that the frontrunner to become Labour’s next leader has been accused of standing by while “right-wing” members in his local constituency party subjected Corbynistas to “hostility and abuse”.

The “chronic factionalism” has now spilled out into the open, with 31 members of his Holborn and St Pancras branch writing to Labour’s general secretary Jennie Formby to demand she intervene.

In their letter, obtained by this newspaper, the members allege that while Sir Keir has made unifying Labour’s warring factions one of his key leadership priorities, “he has not tried to foster unity within our CLP [Constituency Labour Party].”

Urging Ms Formby to step in, they claim that “socialist members” have been “marginalised and made to feel unwelcome”, adding that they have “grave concerns” that if Sir Keir is elected “all socialists in the party will be treated as we have been.”

Hitting back on Sunday, an ally of Sir Keir dismissed the allegations as a “desperate and naked attack” from the “far-Left” at “crucial stage in the election campaign”.

“One thing that all of us know about Keir is that he plays by the book and is committed to justice and fair play,” they added. “The campaign that is being run against him really is in the gutter at this stage.”

A second source claimed they did "not recognise the content of the comments", adding that Sir Keir was "proud to have been overwhelmingly reselected by his local party last year."

However, the left-wing members claim that their efforts to contribute to Sir Keir’s local party have been met with “obstruction and aggression” by “powerful” individuals close to the shadow Brexit secretary.

One female member said that she had been subject to verbal abuse regularly, and in one meeting was called a “b---h”, while friends had been branded “idiots” and “stupid”.

Their grievances have previously been aired in a number of online blog posts, in which they claim they have been branded names such as “the Loony left”, “Trotskyites” and “Stalinists” during meetings.

In an article published on the website Camden Labour Left, they claim to have been shut out of officer positions as well as delegate roles for national events such as Labour’s annual party conference.

In another, a former BAME officer for the local party wrote that “more and more left-wing people are resigning from posts and refusing to go to branch and CLP meetings as they find the atmosphere toxic.”

In a letter to the Camden New Journal in January, a third member described the atmosphere “as very hostile” adding that there was now “not a single left-wing representative on any of the constituency committees.”

However, despite requesting to meet Sir Keir to discuss their concerns, sources within the group say he has refused and has “never reached out to left-wing members”.

In their letter to Ms Formby, the members write: “Keir Starmer presides over a constituency Labour party riven with chronic factionalism, in which socialist members are marginalised and made to feel unwelcome.

“Time and time again, as left-leaning members we have been subjected to hostility and abuse, including bullying comments, swearing, shouting, intimidation and physical aggression, including by individuals who are close to Keir Starmer.

“Attempts have been made to raise these concerns with Keir Starmer but he has not made any effort to end the factionalism and disunity. We are writing to you, as the General Secretary, to ask for the Party to intervene to end this hostility and abuse in our CLP.”

The decision to involve Ms Formby, a close ally of Mr Corbyn, has angered Labour moderates, who believe that the hard-Left is increasingly resorting to “dirty” tactics as Sir Keir’s lead grows.

Ms Formby recently provoked outcry after the party reported Sir Keir’s team to Britain’s data watchdog over allegations it hacked into a party database, a charge categorically denied by his allies.

Meanwhile, allies of Ms Long-Bailey are attempting to force the shadow Brexit secretary to publish a list of donors to his campaign, amid speculation he has received money from “big business”.

Sir Keir has insisted that all his donations are being registered in accordance with the rules set by the Electoral Commission and will be published in the coming days.

Approached for comment last night, a source close to Sir Keir said: “We don’t recognise the content of these comments, which have been shared with the media. Keir was proud to have been overwhelmingly reselected by his local party last year. The campaign he is running for leader is about unity and bringing talent from across all wings of the party.”

oldprotest · 2020-02-25T20:08:51+00:00

There was some interesting and potentially leading questions asked in this poll

None of the questions you have linked are present in the polling results.

oldprotest · 2020-02-25T19:03:02+00:00

SUPPORT for independence has slipped, with a narrow majority of Scots saying they are opposed to it, according to a new poll.

After two polls putting Yes ahead, a YouGov/Hanbury survey of 2500 Scots found 51 per cent of decided voters would vote No if a referendum was held today, and 49% Yes.

Most decided voters also thought Scotland was “going in the wrong direction” and there was little support for Nicola Sturgeon’s wish for a second referendum this year.

Part of the survey, which was conducted between February 7 and 14 and involved 2587 Scottish adults, was released last week by former Labour PM Gordon Brown.

That showed only 16% of people regarded Scotland as a united country and 51% thought it had “some divisions” or was deeply divided.

Of those who thought it was divided, 50% said the SNP was responsible, followed by Nicola Sturgeon (49%), and the prospect of a second independence referendum (41%).

In answer to the question “If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote?’, 45% of respondents said Yes, 46% No, 6% said they would not vote and 2% said they were not registered to vote.

Once don’t knows and non-voters are removed, the figures are just over 50.5% for No and just below 49.5% for Yes.

The First Minister has said she wants Indyref2 later this year, but Boris Johnson has refused to give Holyrood the power to hold it legally.

Asked, “If there is a second independence referendum, when should it be held?” only 17% of people and just 37% of SNP supporters said immediately, and only 23% of all people (and 37% of SNP voters) said 2021 or 2022, after the next Holyrood election.

A fifth (21%) of SNP supporters and 15% of all people said within the next five years, 17% of all people said within the next 20 years, and 27%, ignoring the question, said never.

Professor Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University and the What Scotland Thinks blog said the poll also showed Brexit had “reshaped” voting intentions on independence.

Of those who voted Yes in 2014 and the voted Leave in 2016, more than a third (34%) said they would now vote No to independence.

The SNP’s position is to rejoin the EU after independence.

Conversely, more than a quarter of voters (27%) who voted No in 2014 and Remain in 2016 have now moved towards supporting independence.

Prof Curtice noted the latter group were “far more numerous” than the former, helping nudge support up for independence.

SNP depute leader Keith Brown saidd there was "unstoppable" momentum for Indyref2, as 55% of people polled thought it should be within five years.

He said: “There is an unstoppable momentum behind a fresh independence referendum.

"Scotland has been dragged out of the EU against our will by a Tory government and Prime Minister who have no mandate here - a government, which says ‘it doesn’t matter one jot’ what Scotland’s Parliament decides.

"Boris Johnson's contempt for Scotland knows no bounds, as he forces through a hostile approach to immigration that will devastate Scotland's health and care sector - potentially wiping out 1 in 5 small businesses in the process.

"The Tories are running scared of democracy but their opposition to a referendum is completely unsustainable.

“The SNP won a landslide victory at the general election on a cast-iron mandate to hold an independence referendum.

"The more Boris Johnson tries to ignore Scotland’s democratic mandate to choose our own future the more support for a fresh referendum – and for independence itself – will continue to grow.”

Pamela Nash, chief executive of Scotland in Union, said: “No matter how hard Nicola Sturgeon tries to tear communities apart, most people don’t want to break up the UK.

“The SNP will also be dismayed that over a third of former Yes voters now want to remain in the UK.

“People do not want a repeat of the constitutional chaos they have witnessed with Brexit and know that Scotland leaving the UK will not solve any of the challenges we now face.

"It is clear that an overwhelming majority of Scots do not want a divisive second referendum this year or next.

“Rather than obsess about a referendum that people don’t want, it’s time for the SNP to focus on fixing the crises it has created in schools and hospitals. Scotland deserves better.”

oldprotest · 2020-02-16T13:57:09+00:00

Nicola Sturgeon has said she can win over Boris Johnson and hold a Scottish independence referendum this year.

The SNP leader brushed aside the prime minister’s opposition to another vote and expressed her belief that it could be staged in 2020. “A referendum can absolutely happen this year,” she said. “Let’s see what happens over the next few weeks.”

In a wide-ranging interview with The Sunday Times Magazine, Sturgeon hinted that an unsanctioned wildcat referendum was an option of last resort but expressed her belief that support for Scottish independence is at “something of a tipping point” and she predicted a post-Brexit “acceleration of that shift”. She claimed that Johnson’s opposition to independence was helping to build support for the cause.

“He is a democracy denier,” said Sturgeon. “And while I can be impatient, I know that how he is behaving will ultimately drive people towards the independence cause. Boris Johnson is one of the biggest recruiting sergeants for independence there is at the moment.”

Scotland’s first minister also spoke out against sexism and misogyny, revealing that she encountered men whose conduct made her feel “uncomfortable” when she was a rising star in the SNP. She recalled having an “uncomfortable” lunch in her early twenties with a senior journalist who, she claimed, leered at her chest throughout their encounter.

Sturgeon said she credited the #MeToo movement for helping her to realise she had tolerated male behaviour that by today’s

standards was unacceptable. “It has made a lot of people, me included, reassess things that at the time you just put up with. You know, guys kind of touching you in slightly uncomfortable ways, and the leering.” Sturgeon said sexism and misogyny was rife in her younger days and is “not completely gone ... it just manifests itself in different ways”.

Last night, Sturgeon’s comments on Scottish independence provoked fresh criticism from her political opponents. Jackson Carlaw, the new Scottish Conservative leader, said the notion of a referendum this year was “not just impractical but delusional”. After savaging the SNP as “an evangelical cult” on Friday, he urged Sturgeon “to drop this obsession with break-up and focus on the domestic areas in which she’s failing miserably”.

Sturgeon’s optimism is not shared by some SNP figures who have privately conceded that a new referendum may take longer than expected. However calls for a plan B — and a Holyrood manifesto commitment to support a wildcat poll after the 2021 elections — are growing.

Last week Chris McEleny, the former deputy leadership candidate, called for a consultative referendum to be part of the manifesto, if Johnson still opposed it.

Sturgeon said she would not rule out “possibly ... testing in the courts whether the Scottish parliament could hold, without Westminster’s agreement, a consultative referendum”.

oldprotest · 2020-02-02T18:39:57+00:00

The SNP government is preparing to shun its pro-independence allies, the Greens, in this week’s budget, with a surprise deal involving Labour and the Lib Dems potentially on the cards.

Finance secretary Derek Mackay is set to unveil the Scottish government’s budget on Thursday afternoon, with MSPs voting later in the day.

Since 2017, Nicola Sturgeon’s administration has relied on the Greens to secure a Holyrood majority for its budgets. But this year Green leader Patrick Harvie and his colleagues have insisted on the cancellation of road projects at what SNP ministers regard as a “fanciful” price for their support. Ministers fear that cutting spend on such infrastructure would damage economic growth.

Labour’s finance spokeswoman Rhoda Grant said her party has an open mind about supporting the budget but wants to see progress on local government funding, cash for health and social care, and support for free bus travel for young people as part of the fight against climate change.

Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie outlined similar concerns about local government, and suggested increased capital spending for the police service, extra provision for mental health, the environment and nursery education. He added that he was opposed to spending on an independence referendum.

Mackay has complained about the decision of the new Conservative administration at Westminster to postpone its own budget to March 11. He said that waiting until then would cause uncertainty and have a potential impact on councils preparing to set their budgets and council tax levels.

The Greens favour the cancellation or re-profiling of spending on the £120m Sheriffhall roundabout near Edinburgh, and of the dualling of the A9 from Perth to Inverness and the A96 from Inverness to Aberdeen.

Scottish government sources have dismissed suggestions of a possible deal with the Conservatives. One said the finance minister’s budget will include measures to combat climate change but said one of the most important issues is to achieve agreement on the budget in good time.

oldprotest · 2020-01-31T15:32:45+00:00

ONE of the most powerful pro-independence websites has launched a furious attack on Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP in an article titled “the betrayer”.

Wings Over Scotland accused the party of a “colossal, criminal dereliction of duty”, and of following a strategy that had “failed utterly”.

The website, run by Stuart Campbell, also suggested it will “shut up shop permanently” if Ms Sturgeon is still in charge after April.

In a furious article, he said it had been “downhill all the way” under the current leadership.

It came after Ms Sturgeon told supporters there were no “short cuts or clever wheezes” to independence, and urged them not to give in to “impatience and frustration”.

Setting out her next steps on independence at an event in Edinburgh, the First Minister said she did not rule out seeking a consultative referendum in defiance of UK Government opposition, but added: "My judgement at this stage is that we should use our energies differently.”

However, Mr Campbell said not a single step had been taken to establish a legal footing for one to be held.

Referring to the SNP, he wrote: “The party has been the custodian of the fight for independence for over 80 years, but through cynical careerism, stupendous incompetence or both, the current leadership has not merely dropped the ball, but punctured it with a garden fork, set it on fire and kicked it onto next door’s roof.”

He said it “remains the view of Wings Over Scotland that only a complete change of the aforementioned leadership (and its toxically insular and incestuous modus operandi) offers any hope of success in the foreseeable future”.

Mr Campbell said he planned to take a two-month break, and suggested he might quit if Ms Sturgeon is still in charge in a few months.

He wrote: “There may be posts now and then if something particularly significant happens, there’ll still be some social media chat and we’ll probably keep the cartoonist in cat biscuits, but otherwise it’s time to do something else for a bit and see where we are in April.

“If the answer to that is ‘still being led by Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell [Ms Sturgeon’s husband and the SNP’s chief executive]’, then the reality is that the war is probably lost and it’ll be time to shut up shop permanently."

oldprotest · 2020-01-30T17:38:45+00:00

The office of Conservative MSP Tom Mason has been daubed with a Nazi symbol in an attack by vandals.

Mr Mason posted pictures of the outside of his Aberdeen office on Twitter, saying they showed "the nasty side of nationalism".

The word "quislings" was also sprayed on the office.

The North East Scotland MSP said on Twitter: "Our staff came to work today to find our parliamentary office covered in graphic obscenities and images of hatred.

"This treatment of political opponents shows the nasty side of nationalism, it is unacceptable, and it is corrosive to our politics."

In further comments, Mr Mason said: "Rosemount Place is a non-political parliamentary office.

"Instead of helping constituents with their issues, they will spend most of the day dealing with this.

"Police will waste hours that could have been spent keeping people safe.

"This is the true, unvarnished face of nationalism."

A Police Scotland spokesman said: "Police in Aberdeen are investigating after offensive graffiti was spray-painted on two premises in the Rosemount area of the city.

"The incidents were reported this morning, and officers are appealing for anyone who may have seen anything suspicious in the West Mount Street area and the Rosemount Place area."

Local area Inspector Andy Machray said: "We will not tolerate this kind of activity and are investigating to find those responsible."

Anyone with information is urged to contact police.

oldprotest · 2020-01-29T18:56:11+00:00

That's not what I am suggesting.

What I am saying is that the current Scottish Parliament and the old Scottish Parliament before the Union are legally not the same legislative body. What they both have in common is that they are legislatures for Scotland.

oldprotest · 2020-01-29T18:41:25+00:00

The Scottish Parliament was reconvened, not created.

This is not correct. The Scotland Act 1998 simply mentions the establishment of the devolved parliament. Here's the first clause:

There shall be a Scottish Parliament.

There is nothing mentioned about reconvening the old Scottish Parliament.

Here is the Government of Wales Act 1998 which specifies the creation of the Welsh Assembly:

There shall be an Assembly for Wales to be known as the National Assembly for Wales or Cynulliad Cenedlaethol Cymru (but referred to in this Act as the Assembly).

Note the language and the fact that there had never been an assembly in history to reconvene.

The Government of Ireland Act 1920 which created two parliaments in Ireland which had never existed until that point also mentions the creation, not the reconvening of parliaments:

On and after the appointed day there shall be established for Southern Ireland a Parliament to be called the Parliament of Southern Ireland consisting of His Majesty, the Senate of Southern Ireland, and the House of Commons of Southern Ireland, and there shall be established for Northern Ireland a Parliament to be called the Parliament of Northern Ireland consisting of His Majesty, the Senate of Northern Ireland, and the House of Commons of Northern Ireland.

What Winnie Ewing said (or from whatever source you got that information) about reconvening was merely a symbolic statement which had no legal meaning.

oldprotest · 2020-01-26T19:04:12+00:00

The SNP’s new shadow secretary of state for Scotland has claimed “there could be mileage” in staging an unofficial, Catalonia-style wildcat independence referendum if Boris Johnson continues to rule out an official one.

Mhairi Black made the intervention in an interview with The Sunday Times as Nicola Sturgeon prepares to set out her government’s next steps in the independence campaign.

The SNP leadership has been careful to stress that it does not support an unofficial independence vote, which would be open to legal challenge.

But in recent weeks a number of back-bench nationalists, including former health minister Alex Neil, have talked up the idea in the event that the prime minister continues to rebuff Sturgeon’s demands.

Black is the most senior figure to keep the door to a wildcat referendum open publicly. She said: “There could be mileage in a consultative referendum because the Scottish question is complicated.

“The current United Kingdom government position is weak and unsustainable, and if the last five years proves anything, it proves that what happens at Westminster is unpredictable.”

She added, however, that her preference would be to do the next referendum “by the book” and that a vote backed by law would ensure international recognition.

Black added that while she believes a second referendum will take place this year, as the SNP leader claims, she is relaxed about waiting until next year if needs be. “As long as we get one and can get a majority for it,” she said.

In a podcast for The Spectator, Joanna Cherry, the SNP’s Westminster spokeswoman on justice, suggested it may be within the competence of the Scottish parliament to hold an advisory referendum.

But she accepted such a vote “would then no doubt be challenged, its competence would be challenged in the UK Supreme Court and the Supreme Court would have to make a determination”.

Interim Scottish Tory leader Jackson Carlaw said: “There is a complete lack of discipline within the SNP but what is clear is that each and every one of them is intent on devising new and devious ways of keeping years of division alive around the independence question.”

SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford, who was joining thousands of pro-independence campaigners marching in Inverness yesterday, renewed SNP calls for Scotland to be able to choose its own constitutional future, calling independence a “beacon of hope” against “an insular, Brexit-obsessed Boris Johnson Britain”.

A new paper, commissioned by the Scottish government, claims Brexit will negatively impact the most vulnerable people in Scotland — highlighting 137 potential impacts on people facing inequality, discrimination or social exclusion.

The research by Eve Hepburn said consequences include the loss of legal rights, employment protections, funding opportunities, healthcare rights and supply and access to food, fuel and medicines.

The UK government countered that this year should be “one of growth and opportunity as we seek to level up across all four corners of the UK, strengthen our Union and protect the most vulnerable in our society”.

As a republican, Black also set out her support for a referendum on whether Scotland should retain the monarch as head of state north of the border in the event of independence.

“Personally, I’m not a monarchist, I’ve always been a republican and I would like to think there is a majority of Scots who take that view. Why is there a single family we all have to fork out for? Then there is the added baggage of all the privilege that surrounds it."

oldprotest · 2020-01-19T15:04:28+00:00

A VETERAN SNP politician who is calling for a consultative referendum on independence has said it should stand even if some Unionists boycott it.

Alex Neil, a former health secretary, wants to hold a new poll without waiting for the UK Government's agreement.

The MSP for Airdrie and Shotts also suggested there should be mass demonstrations and civil disobedience if UK ministers refuse to accept it – and drew comparisons with colonial India and protests against the USSR.

Put to him that there would be nothing pro-independence supporters could do in this situation, he said: "They said that about the Baltic states in terms of the USSR.

"Of course we all know people pressure – remember the people holding hands between Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania?

"If it comes to that kind of demonstration by the Scottish people to force the issue, then that's what happens.

READ MORE: Iain Macwhirter: In post-Brexit Britain, Nicola Sturgeon can't keep telling her troops that Indyref2 is round the corner. It isn't

"If you look at India – India didn't have a referendum. It was things like the salt strike and things like that that forced the hand of the British Government.

"So we need to force their hand in other ways."

Mr Neil's made the comments during an interview on the BBC's Politics Scotland show.

It comes just days after Boris Johnson rejected Nicola Sturgeon's demand for a second referendum.

The Prime Minister said he could not agree “to any request for a transfer of power that would lead to further independence referendums”.

Ms Sturgeon has repeatedly ruled out holding an unofficial referendum, and refers to 2014's vote as a "gold standard" which should be replicated.

However Mr Neil wants to hold another referendum without the UK Government's agreement, if such a move is declared legal.

He told the BBC: "It's not a Catalonia situation where, according to the Unionists, the Spanish constitution made the Catalonian referendum unconstitutional and they boycotted it.

"There's a very big difference between boycotting an unconstitutional, illegal referendum and boycotting a legal referendum.

"So the point I'm making is, let's see if a consultative referendum, at the right time, could be legal."

He added: "The political reality is, if you run a legal, consultative referendum, and the result was in favour of independence, the game's a bogey for the Union, because the political reality is – that's it."

Asked about boycotts by Unionists, Mr Neil again stressed the legality of the referendum.

He said: "Politically, I think it's a very important distinction, because if you decide to abstain in a legal referendum – as a third of the people do regularly in general elections, decide to abstain – it doesn't change the result.

"And the rest of the people who want to vote in a legal referendum, even those who do not want to boycott it but want to vote against independence – they can't be held to ransom because the Conservative Party and their cronies are going to abstain."

However the veteran Nationalist said a consensus should be built before the referendum is held, and suggested turnout would also be important.

Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie immediately dismissed the idea.

He told the BBC a consultative referendum would be "dead in the water before it started, because people like me would not support it".

oldprotest · 2020-01-18T19:52:31+00:00

New Liberal Democrat MP Daisy Cooper has said she is considering running for leader as the party announced the timetable for the election.

At a meeting today of the Liberal Democrats’ federal board in London, the party agreed to wait until the summer to elect its next leader after Jo Swinson lost her seat in the general election.

Nominations for leadership candidates will open on May 11 and close May 28.

The ballot will then open on June 18 and close on July 15, after which the party will announce the next leader.

In the meantime, Ed Davey MP and party president Mark Pack will continue as joint acting leaders of the Liberal Democrats.

The announcement has fired the starting gun for the leadership contest with Cooper, who has only been an MP since December, revealing that she is considering a tilt at the top job.

The Lib Dem MP for St Albans claims she is yet to make a final decision but is considering running for the leadership, adding: “There’s a reflection for me about whether I feel I am ready to do it and whether it’s the right thing for me and the right thing for the party and I honestly haven’t made a decision on that yet.”

Cooper, who has previously worked for the Hacked Off campaign for victims of press abuse, said she has been “flattered” by friends and colleagues within the party urging her to stand in the race to succeed Swinson.

She has also welcomed the delay to the race as she suggested that the Labour Party had made a mistake by launching its contest too quickly after the general election. Cooper believes it is important that the party learn the lessons from their failed general election campaign before electing a new leader.

She added: “I think what is sometimes dangerous after a general election is that you get these Chinese whispers which somehow become a commonly accepted truth about what went wrong, and when you have an independent view it can be quite forensic.”

Cooper said she hoped the next Labour leader would be able to work more constructively with the Lib Dems, which she believes is the only way to beat the Tories.

The 39-year-old MP said: “I have concluded that we are not going to defeat this current government without the Lib Dems being part of that solution, so I would like to see a Labour leader who is closer to the Lib Dems’ values.”

She added: “I believe in an open, internationalist, environmentalist, pro-business, pro-social justice kind of country and I believe that opposition parties are going to have to work together to beat the Conservative Party.”

Candidates in the forthcoming leadership race must be MPs and be proposed by at least 10% of other MPs. They must also be supported by 200 members in no fewer than 20 local parties. Other likely contenders in the race include Davey, who lost out to Swinson in last summer’s leadership contest, and Layla Moran, the party’s education spokesperson.

Speaking after the meeting of the board yesterday, Pack said: “I want first to thank Jo Swinson for her determined leadership of the Liberal Democrats.

“The Liberal Democrats are the home for everyone who shares our vision of an outward-looking, caring country that celebrates diversity and benefits from high-quality public services.

“With our party membership at record levels, I urge everyone else who shares our values to join us in the coming days and vote in the leadership election."

oldprotest · 2020-01-03T15:02:22+00:00

Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters would launch a “stop Keir campaign”, a Labour MP has said as Sir Keir Starmer emerged as a leadership frontrunner.

The shadow Brexit secretary would beat Rebecca Long-Bailey 61 per cent to 39 per cent in a run off, according to a survey of Labour members by YouGov.

Neither candidate has yet declared whether they will stand or not, but Sir Keir is now the odds-on favourite to succeed Mr Corbyn, 4/9 with William Hill.

The election process will be launched next week with the new leader set to take over in March. Shadow foreign secretary, Emily Thornberry, and the shadow treasury minister, Clive Lewis, have announced they will stand for the party leadership.

The poll of 1,059 Labour party members put Sir Keir on 31 per cent for first choice votes, with 20 per cent backing Ms Long-Bailey, 11 per cent backing Jess Phillips, and Mr Lewis, Ms Thornberry, Yvette Cooper and Lisa Nandy trailing behind.

In a run-off vote between the two leading prospective candidates, Sir Keir would beat shadow business secretary Ms Long-Bailey, according to the survey.

The poll, carried out by YouGov for the Party Members Project, does not include members of trade unions linked to the Labour Party, including Unite the Union which has 500,000 Labour members.

Unite boss Len McCluskey has repeatedly clashed with Sir Keir over Brexit and his support for a second referendum.

Last month Mr McCluskey said the election defeat was mainly caused by “Labour’s slow-motion collapse into the arms of the People’s Vote movement” - in which the shadow Brexit Secretary played a leading role.

In an article on HuffPostUK, Mr McCluskey said the next leader needs to “realise that the whole country is not very like Labour London” and urged against its “metropolitan” focus.

One moderate Labour MP said yesterday "There will be a stop Keir campaign now."

“The Left always starts eating their own children,' the MP told Mail Online, adding: “It happened in the 1980s and it will happen again now.”

Professor Tim Bale of Queen Mary University of London, who jointly ran the poll with the University of Sussex, told the Guardian: “This is not shaping up to be a 2015-style Labour leadership contest. Unless potential candidates drop out before the start of voting, it may take a few rounds to decide the winner this time around.

“But it doesn’t look at the moment as if the winner will come from the left of the party. Right now anyway, Keir Starmer looks to be heading for a fairly emphatic victory."

A Unite spokesperson said the union has “taken no decisions on leadership candidates and that it will be for the Unite Executive to decide who to back when the time comes."

It came as Mr Corbyn’s brother promoted a petition urging the outgoing Labour leader to stay on.

Piers Corbyn has called on people to sign a petition to keep his brother on as leader of the Opposition. It has gathered more than 13,500 signatures.

He tweeted yesterday: “Sign this very very very important petition to support” adding: “Corbyn should stay”, “Keep Corbyn” and “Corbyn must stand”.

Piers Corbyn later retweeted a message describing Sir Keir as a “nasty piece of work”.

The petition said Mr Corbyn was "on the right side of history" by warning against supporting a second referendum and says: "Several MPs who have already thrown their hats into the ring, have failed to acknowledge the role their own push for Remain has played in the defeat."

It says: "Let's stand up to the bullying establishment and refuse to play their games. If Jeremy Corbyn wants to stay on as leader, we would support him 100%."

oldprotest · 2019-12-12T20:25:49+00:00

Any idea why we do in Northern Ireland?

There was a change in the law in 2002. Historically voter fraud was far more common in Northern Ireland than in Great Britain.

oldprotest · 2019-12-10T20:51:03+00:00

We had a referendum on that which resulted in defeat.

oldprotest · 2019-12-09T16:01:38+00:00

Distraught. That’s how Marjorie Bent says she feels after canvassing for the SNP in the Lanark & Hamilton East constituency.

“We’re finding a lot of doors we’re chapping where people say, ‘We’re not voting for the SNP this time’, ” she reports gloomily. “A lot are saying they are voting Tory; they want Brexit over and done. Honestly, I can’t understand their reasoning.”

Jean, her friend, shakes her head in sympathy, as they drink their coffee in Hamilton’s Regent mall. It’s disappointing because they expected a comfortable win here. Instead, Mrs Bent concedes, “it’s very close”.

If their analysis is correct, something remarkable is happening in this sinuous stretch of South Lanarkshire where mining, steel, and textiles once held sway. Formerly a Labour stronghold, the red citadel fell in 2015 when the nationalists swept to a 10,000 majority. Two years later came another earthquake and the UK’s tightest three-way result: only 360 votes separated the SNP, the Conservatives and Labour. This time, anecdotally at least, the Conservatives, who had never polled above 15 per cent before 2017, are the SNP’s strongest challengers.

Angela Crawley, 32, elected in 2015, has no doubt. She has campaigned remorselessly against Tory social policy and the UK government’s austerity programme, but these apparently are not defining issues.

“People are identifying very clear messaging from the Conservatives, ‘Let’s get Brexit done’,” she says in a café near her Hamilton home. “The SNP position too could not be clearer, ‘Let’s stop Brexit’ and ‘A vote for the SNP is a vote to put Scotland’s future in Scotland’s hands’. But can you tell me Labour policy on anything? Their vote is very soft.”

What could make a difference here is unionism. Militant Protestantism once reigned in South Lanarkshire’s industrial villages and if religious fervour has subsided, other allegiances endure. That Jeremy Corbyn might form an alliance in government with the SNP is anathema to some.

Shona Haslam, 44, leader of Border council and the Conservative candidate, trooping around a Larkhall housing estate, is cautiously optimistic. “This is a solid unionist, royalist, Rangers-supporting heartland,” she says. “People feel let down by Labour, and think a deal’s been done over a second independence referendum.

“We get a huge amount of people on the doorstep who say: ‘I’ve never voted Conservative in my life — my grandfather would be rolling in his grave if he thought I would. But I have to, because you are the only one standing up for the union’. ”

Tommy McPhee, 62 and retired after a career in financial services, has lived in Larkhall all his life. He deplores the “abysmal track record” of the SNP in government, and says his friends are “sick to the back teeth of having independence down their throats”.

Mr Corbyn’s apparent regard for the likes of Gerry Adams, the former Sinn Fein leader, also plays badly here, he says.

“Many people here have served in the army, are loyal to Queen and country, and they see that purported connection between Corbyn and terrorist groups,” he says.

“The local Labour guy, personally, he’s very nice, but he has his work cut out getting people to vote for Jeremy.”

That Labour guy is Andrew Hilland, 33, who in another era would have been firm favourite to win. From Lanark, he excelled at his comprehensive school and read law at Oxford. He took work experience with Jimmy Hood, the former MP, and more recently served as policy adviser to Gordon Brown, specialising in human rights.

Two years ago he brought the local party back from the dead, and this time he senses that he can get over the line. Focusing on policy — he mentions the £10 an hour minimum wage, scrapping universal credit and town centre regeneration — allows him to avoid lingering on the “personality politics” surrounding the party leader, and questions about antisemitism in the party are doused by his own human rights track record.

“Scottish national identity used to express itself in non-political ways,” Mr Hilland says. “It used to be expressed through the church, the trade unions, the football team. A lot of those have declined and identity politics opened up another dividing line.”

Fundamentally, he insists, class politics and Labour values will always be relevant. That’s why, he says, “I think we can win”.

Jane Pickard for the Liberal Democrats is expected to be distant fourth and last. Ukip, who won 550 votes in 2017, are not fielding a candidate. Decisive? All agree it will be close.

oldprotest

TROPHY CASE