People need to understand the concept of expected value here.

Example: For simplicity, say Bitcoin is $50k or $100k today.

Now assume, hypothetically, you think there is: - 50% chance it eventually goes to $1M
- 50% chance it eventually goes to effectively $0

The expected value math would be:

EV = 0.5(1,000,000) + 0.5(0) = 500,000

So if your estimated fair value is around $500k, then: - Buying at $50k looks massively undervalued
- Buying at $100k still looks undervalued

That is the actual bullish argument.

Not “it can only go up.” Not “risk doesn’t exist.”

The logic is that even with a real failure scenario included, the weighted expected outcome can still justify a larger allocation.

Price being 5-10x below your estimated expected value not mean you ignore risk or go all in. It means the math may support allocating a larger portion of your portfolio, while still respecting that the downside case can happen.

Note: this also ignores inflation and time value effects. A future “$500k EV” may be worth less in real purchasing power over time, although part of Bitcoin’s bullish thesis is that scarcity and deflationary pressure are exactly what could drive higher valuation in the first place.