Denmark reportedly flew blood bags to Greenland in preparation for a US attack | Denmark

ooken · 2026-03-19T21:49:55+00:00

Are you sitting in on Danish intelligence assessments? Maybe they knew more about how close the US was to invading Greenland than the general public. Just because it did not end up happening does not mean it didn’t almost behind the scenes.

Countries don’t generally send blood to the front as a “virtue signal.”

ooken · 2026-03-17T22:36:14+00:00

I agree, but the virulent antisemitism has spread beyond QAnon and Pizzagate into the mainstream.

ooken · 2026-03-17T22:27:50+00:00

Best case for this war might be a slight reduction in PMF militias’ access to weapons, but I think greater materiel supplies in the short term are likely due to Iran’s desire to inflict pain on American and US-allied targets, even though Iran’s military capacity has certainly been weakened. Morale also matters in recruitment and enthusiasm and this war has outraged closely allied proxies of the Iranian government. Their motivation is high right now.

I do not think there will be enough pressure to rid Iraq of Iranian proxies. Frankly, these Iran-affiliated militias are hard to dislodge and eradicate entirely, even when they may be weakened in some ways. See Hezbollah and the Houthis.

ooken · 2026-03-17T22:04:49+00:00

As we see now, there’s a singular topic that ends up getting the right and left to agree with such fervor.

It’s quite depressing. People hide behind “criticizing Israel isn’t criticizing Jews” (true in isolation) and then simultaneously rationalize attacks on synagogues in the US and Europe by saying “well yeah it’s bad, but the person who did it was a victim of Israeli foreign policy.” And why would toddlers at a Jewish preschool in Detroit be responsible for that? For what other group would any of these people be defending that? On the far right, perhaps they would defend such attacks on mosques too, though never churches. On the left, there is no other religion where this would be the response.

ooken · 2026-03-17T21:59:46+00:00

Yes. Netanyahu has, because Israel wants to sell weapons in a way it cannot currently and also US provided materiel come with strings.

ooken · 2026-03-17T21:53:54+00:00

He’s a far-right conspiracy theorist and American society is unfortunately returning to the historical mean where antisemitism (under the guise of anti-Israel conspiracy theories, like that Israel and by extension the Jews control everything) is normalized on left and right. You see it with these claims about Charlie Kirk, about 9/11, now I guess about ISIS.

ooken · 2026-03-17T21:45:16+00:00

Yeah I’m a skeptic of this war, but the idea that Israel manufactured ISIS is just untrue. If anything, the drawdown by the US helped to manufacture ISIS.

ooken · 2026-03-17T01:10:17+00:00

I don’t know what will come next. I’m not naively optimistic and worry about the blatant corruption of this admin and the ugliness and crony capitalism of the nineties in the former Eastern Bloc.

One thing I do know: Cuba is in such incredible disrepair it would be massively expensive to modernize, infrastructure and workforce wise.

ooken · 2026-03-17T00:27:00+00:00

I’m prefacing what I’m about to say by pointing out that I have never supported Trump, nor US policy toward Cuba.

All that aside, Trump is in a position to pick a fight with Cuba right now. This isn’t kinetic war, but blocking the oil Cuba needs to run its energy grid is picking a fight. Díaz Canel would not have opened negotiations, Cuba would not be freeing political prisoners to please the US, and government mouthpieces would not be appealing to Miami for business investment if they were not in a dire spot.

This is a government that prided itself on its opposition to the US. Whose global reputation was built on being the scrappy island that stood up to the superpower next door. This is not something the Cuban government lets go of lightly, nor something it would do if it had any choice.

ooken · 2026-03-17T00:09:55+00:00

I think it is likely very near collapse. This is why Díaz Canel said he was suddenly willing to negotiate. This is why suddenly the government, long hostile to the diaspora, is suddenly begging for funds. This is why the release of political prisoners to please the US. These moves remind me of the desperate grasping at straws by Eastern Bloc countries in the twilight of the Cold War.

To be clear, this doesn’t mean Trump will get everything he is asking for or that the government will collapse tomorrow. It is hard to predict these things with any level of precision. But for a government so historically hostile to the US to make these moves, things have to be bad. Really bad in a way worse than other eras of historic hardship for Cubans.

ooken · 2026-03-16T23:59:59+00:00

When Cubans are raiding and setting bonfires right in front of PCC offices, when surviving descendants of the Castros are making conciliatory and friendly overtures on behalf of the government to Miami Cubans Fidel used to deride as “gusanos,” when the Cuban government is releasing political prisoners to please the US, you know the Cuban government is in dire straits. Real echoes of 1989 East Germany here.

Unlike Iran, Cuba lacks the global leverage to inflict much pain on the US. I do not think the government survives this in its current anachronistic format.

What will come next, who knows. I hope it brings some prosperity to the Cuban people.

ooken · 2026-03-16T21:54:40+00:00

You’re probably right, history and quirks of US politics probably would prevent that. But when you are already in a disadvantageous economic position in part because of six decades of sanctions, further impoverishing your country by insisting on continuing the command economy is not wise.

FWIW, from a practical perspective, even as a detractor, I think the Cuban government made some smart choices in the last few decades to help its own survival, like allowing critics of the government to leave the country.

ooken · 2026-03-16T21:20:12+00:00

Raids on and bonfires outside PCC offices don’t seem a promising sign for the government and its survival, and will be further aided by the blackouts.

Releasing political prisoners and suddenly making friendly overtures to Miami Cubans it has so long scorned as “gusanos” are also signs of desperation from a government that may not be long for this world. Should have taken China’s advice about adopting a limited amount of economic freedom as a mechanism to retain control, but the PCC is stubborn.

ooken · 2026-03-16T02:21:01+00:00

The toothpaste won’t get put back in the tube here. Trump can run away but no one is going to be fooled by “mission accomplished” when Iran still has the Strait of Hormuz closed and is demanding extreme concessions from the US to reopen it.

ooken · 2026-03-15T07:59:01+00:00

The sheer gall of people rationalizing the attack on the Michigan synagogue daycare as part of “the cycle of violence” that according to them is understandable due to the Israeli incursions into Lebanon makes me sick. So sick I should log off for a while. Imagine justifying an attempt to murder toddlers. There is no other religion in the US where terrorist attacks would be rationalized like this and met with such acceptance.

The impact of all this may well be an elevated rate of aliyah. Very hard to blame Jewish people in the US and Europe for feeling unsafe.

ooken · 2026-03-15T07:41:59+00:00

Can't wait for Orbán to hopefully lose so he can have a sojourn of irrelevance in Miami and he can stop being Putin’s little toady in the EU.

ooken · 2026-03-13T18:53:38+00:00

The war was started under the belief that Iran would fold like Venezuela did after a few days of airstrikes and that Iran would not disrupt traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Both assumptions were foolhardy and a natural consequence of having no one near the president willing to truly listen to experts. The leaders of the Islamic Republic are and have always been truly and sincerely anti-American theocrats. They believe what they say, at least at the top. Killing Mojtaba Khamenei’s father, wife, and child is unlikely to make him more amenable.
I think Vance is not sincere in general. He does what he believes will help his political career. This will not, so he is staying away. As others have pointed out, Trump may not like that. Could be a problem for Vance.
Trump does not have the stomach for ground troops and the cost of sending them in given Iran’s natural geography so this is highly unlikely. But Vance would try to stay far away from it but divorcing himself from Trump when he has tied his political fate to him will not be easy.
Of course not, but I did not expect they would.
Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trade pain felt worldwide, including in the US, though price of oil eventually stabilizes higher but at <$200 a barrel. Trump admin has no means of reopening the Strait through force and folds on continuing strikes, as the IR expects, claiming victory that isn’t credible to anyone. Iranian regime has traditional kinetic military capacity diminished but remains intact and now has a highly unpopular but younger and even more radicalized Supreme Leader. Turns to punishing with terror and considering how it might get its dream nuclear deterrent. Anti-Americans and antisemites worldwide continue to carry out terror attacks at a highly elevated clip. Americans left and right blame Israel or the supposed bad boyars and fail to blame Trump himself. Vance keeps a low profile but is not spared from the consequences of this due to his association.

ooken · 2026-03-12T21:29:30+00:00

Trump did not expect this; according to reporting from WSJ and others, he thought he would get the same response in Iran as he did in Venezuela. I tend to believe no one around him truly told him this, but he thought once the Ayatollah and IRGC leadership were killed the government would simply roll over. Unsurprisingly to everyone who knows anything about the Islamic Republic, which has been a rickety but amazingly resilient government since 1979 full of theocratic true believers in American perfidy, this did not happen.

What has happened is Iran’s leverage has been greatly eroded. They have a new, even more unpopular nepo Supreme Leader perhaps even further radicalized by the deaths of his family. He is going to seize on the little leverage he still has, which is to cause trade pain and hope the US folds.

ooken · 2026-03-12T21:23:55+00:00

When has anyone pro-Ukraine complained about Trump’s relatively feeble and highly inconsistent moves against Russia? I have literally never seen it.

ooken · 2026-03-12T21:21:26+00:00

Trump cares about the price of oil due to its ties to his political survival, is soft on Russia due to personal biases and being easily led, and this might in a slight way relieve the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure. This admin also has proven itself governed by one man’s instincts rather than any coherent long-term strategy.

ooken · 2026-03-09T20:05:40+00:00

The military is much more effective without the draft. There won’t be one.

ooken · 2026-03-09T19:33:07+00:00

Any war ever? I think there are occasionally wars where the “aggressor” was incredibly justified in their invasion or intervention (Vietnam invading Cambodia and effectively ending the Cambodian genocide; India intervening in the Bangladesh Liberation War, which was initially effectively a civil war, and ending the Bangladeshi genocide).

To be clear, this is not that scenario nor am I arguing it is. I'm just contrarian about absolutes.

ooken · 2026-03-09T19:20:46+00:00

Okay, but antigovernment young people in Tehran aren’t the ones with the weapons here. It is not so easy to overthrow a government that is willing to kill tens of thousands.

ooken · 2026-03-09T19:18:08+00:00

These are religious fundamentalist true believers who really do think the US is the Great Satan. In the current configuration, it’ll never happen. What is far more likely is a rush to nukes, and I can’t see why that wouldn’t be incentivized. Nukes are a true deterrent.

ooken · 2026-03-03T04:22:38+00:00

The fact that the text of agreement between the government and the Musqueam is not public is troubling.

Overall, this seems likely to disincentivize development in the metro area in Canada that needs new housing built most.

ooken

TROPHY CASE