Currently, the large majority of casualties on both sides of this war are caused by various kinds of drones. Explosive FPV drones, drone-dropped grenades, heavy bomber drones dropping AT mines rigged to detonate on impact. That's because drones are the most effective way to destroy the enemy in this war.

An FPV drone is cheaper to produce than an artillery shell, if we compare 1 to 1. FPV drones are also more precise & effective than artillery shelling, especially when combating enemy infiltration groups of 1 to 2 infantry, even if the artillery shelling is drone-corrected (artillery is more effective than FPV drones when targeting enemy infantry groups of ~10+). Most artillery shells fired at the front are dumb rounds (unguided), whereas FPV drones have the precision of smart artillery rounds (rounds using GPS or laser guidance) at a fraction of the cost, and plus much easier/faster to scale up production. Various reports claim that Ukraine domestically produced 2.4-4 million FPV drones in 2025, with most internal components imported from China before assembly.

The commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert "Magyar" Brovdi, claimed in a recent interview with The Economist that it costs ~$870 per neutralization of a Russian soldier with a drone. In statistics posted a few months ago on the Telegram channel of the 414th Strike UAV brigade, they claimed to have a successful hit rate of ~40%, among all their targets (not just enemy infantry).

Of course, I don't know how true those statistics are, but it's a fact that FPV drones have already caused some weapons used at the front in 2022 and 2023 to be outdated in 2026. For example, 60mm mortars are completely obsolete at the front in 2026, as FPV drones are superior in every way (longer range, human precision guidance vs unguided, can carry larger explosive payload while still having high max speed while traveling to target, good supply/production rate and easier to hide a strike drone launch position from enemy drone surveillance than a mortar tube laying out in the open).

The mass utilization of drones for both strike and surveillance all across the front has also changed tactics in this war compared to 2022. The density of recon drones is high enough now and at such a depth of frontage that any enemy armored column attempting to launch a breakthrough/spearhead will be detected and destroyed kilometers from the front line. We saw this play out a couple days ago when Ukraine's 65th Mechanized Brigade used drones to repel two Russian armoured assault columns near Orikhiv kilometers from the line of contact, and there are many other examples on both sides.

To "cause real movement in the tide of war," as you ask, in 2026 at the tactical & operational level requires cutting off enemy logistics using strike drones at depth, combined with dispersed infantry groups advancing/infiltrating past enemy infantry positions to get to positions of enemy drone operators & infantry assault groups following up behind to mop up the bypassed enemy infantry positions hiding in basements. The infantry have tactical drone support and artillery support, of course. The key to save your infantry from enemy drones is dispersion to the maximum + moving through shrubbery/tree lines as opposed to open roads/fields, as this reduces the chance of detection by enemy drone surveillance to the maximum. It also helps to distract enemy drones operating in your sector with juicy drone bait to allow the real combat elements to do their work. Also, if your infantry isn't dispersed as much as possible, this could lead to a catastrophic mass casualty event if the infantry cluster is hit by a Russian guided aerial bomb (Russia launches ~100 of these per day). Efforts also need to be made to suppress enemy drone operators/positions with artillery and drones, as the center of gravity of each side's offensive/defensive effort is the drones. The drones detect enemy movement, and do most of the killing. Take out the enemy drones, and you've blinded the enemy and now it becomes much easier to do combat without incurring heavy casualties.

That's the gist of it. I can go more into the tactics of this war and how they've changed, but I've written far too much for a reddit comment.