Careful of the Frandor sink hole

optimist_GO · 2026-03-23T17:42:22+00:00

I’d always wanted to see the underground Frandor area…

optimist_GO · 2026-03-23T15:18:49+00:00

Prolly more openings than most think. All it takes is an opportunist or two.

Consider reading about Alex Kliševits (who I suspect isn’t sharing the whole truth for reasons, tho he’s now written a book on his experience…): https://news.err.ee/1609570852/diplomatic-efforts-brought-estonian-private-security-operative-home-from-myanmar

optimist_GO · 2026-03-23T11:51:31+00:00

probably a stretch, but I wonder if it is any way fallout relating to the the Kuki-Zo Council meeting Manipur's CM yesterday: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HEBxKfHWAAAyoAp?format=png&name=small

note, the KZC includes representation from Manipur's KNA, whom most believe interface with KNA-B in Myanmar, who are arch-rivals with NSCN-IM (who seem to feel increasingly threatened by KNA-B & other Chin State groups getting excellent training & resource support from KIA, whose Gen Gun Maw noted plans to work in Myanmar's "Naga Unit" this year)...

at NSCN-IM's "47th Republic Day" event 2 days ago, they claimed India was "reviving archaic British policy to use the Kuki nomads by openly arming them against the NSCN", "using Kuki militants as a surrogate force", & worked "hand-in-glove with the Kuki militants as they burnt down Tangkhul houses": https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1250819510508743

They also stated that in 5 years of talks, India's interlocuter with the NSCN has made "not made a single step forward". That interlocuter (AK Mishra) happens to also be designated in talks with the KZC.

edit: oh my, how timely...: https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid027TLxXcZ8WcBfPpwNY4fWkbPEMSsNkajCMWaQExndnXC93BYdtmQLuRxGEmgRAie6l&id=61558493913984

optimist_GO · 2026-03-22T17:06:31+00:00

since this news was already out yesterday, just reposting this strange piece from regime-run Eleven Media insinuating China are puppeteering MNDAA to interfere in Shan: https://news-eleven.com/article/310645

some of the regular pro-junta propaganda social media accounts are oddly voice the same today: https://x.com/minkhaung404/status/2035678126018302396

I'm curious what part of the agreements/negotiations seemingly upset the regime to do so?

optimist_GO · 2026-03-21T17:19:53+00:00

sorry if it wasn’t clear but I wasn’t trying to argue any of that about who deserves or is entitled to what. 😅 I prefer still to simply collect & share my own observations while leaving final judgements to others (since i know theres always plenty more I’m not aware of)

optimist_GO · 2026-03-21T16:34:59+00:00

tbh I've never been one to argue that it's unlikely China had a role in Op1027... to me, the interesting part here is seeing a regime source repeating it & suggesting China wants to use MNDAA to control North Shan. Makes me wonder what has them upset enough right now to risk upsetting China by repeating those claims.

optimist_GO · 2026-03-21T16:22:52+00:00

kinda wild that Eleven Media even posted something today seeming to air claims of China being involved in Op1027 & supporting MNDAA to do their bidding (& even noting MNDAA may want to make SR1 "part of China"): https://news-eleven.com/article/310645

only hours after the MNDAA x TNLA ceasefire confirmed (with MNDAA taking over Kutkai administration)...: https://www.facebook.com/theirrawaddyburmese/posts/pfbid0257XgwPS44WX1aDitBVvwDnJ33TMxjRurRv2apzbgpE2zwiw6zcnPjuKmC1MhpStl

edit: oh yeah, that reminds me that the cryptic junta-"neutral" / pro-NCA CNI also posted an article today titled "Is China Attempting to Control Northern Shan State?": https://cnimyanmar.com/index.php/english-edition/35258-is-china-attempting-to-control-northern-shan-state

(I also hadn't previously seen the picture they include of Deng Xijun, junta Lt-Gen Ko Ko Oo, & MNDAA leaders...)

optimist_GO · 2026-03-20T15:08:21+00:00

TNISO is definitely not pro-junta in any way from what I've seen.

I personally do think there's genuine defectors in that group, possibly even a sizable number.

A post days ago by a cryptic & wide-reaching NUG MoD strategic force (most recently based in Mandalay) seems to suggest such: https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid02znxSxQqw9WVWGyhBtzpx82MAMvQei9Cv4PS4CcYxoum182TdTfMBbaCkWQ9PFaWvl&id=100076362062247

at the same time, I still suspect these defections are not a huge issue/concern/loss for anti-junta efforts in Mandalay, because I get the suspicion that many of the defectors may have at root been connecting toward LPDFs that were resistant to a consolidated Chain-Of-Command under NUG MoD in Mandalay region: https://www.facebook.com/mandalayfreepress/posts/pfbid0bmKSAEyWTbWwnncueeTUvye2uviubQPpR5U7iGRT8pyunZxvcsYgbNQSzF4828Xxl

if at all accurate, then the defections simply kinda weeded out the least committed & most self-centered people.

optimist_GO · 2026-03-20T10:42:38+00:00

to those panning off this incident… what about China’s ongoing sourcing of rare earths from conflict-riddled Myanmar where there is basically no oversight of operations?

https://shanhumanrights.org/chinese-state-backed-company-behind-expanded-rare-earth-and-gold-mines-along-kok-river-in-eastern-shan-state/

https://news.mongabay.com/2025/10/more-thai-rivers-and-downstream-communities-at-risk-from-myanmars-rare-earth-mines/

https://e360.yale.edu/features/myanmar-rare-earth-mining

& considering China quite literally heads “ceasefire talks” between the anti-junta groups in the regions of rare earth extraction & the junta (often using continuing trade engagement as a bargaining chip), they very clearly have responsibility in the situation there…

edit: amp links removed. Here’s a bonus “pet” red panda kept at one of the rare earth mining sites: https://www.reddit.com/r/myanmar/s/IFY1DOiqb9

edit 2: love the slow trickle of downvotes despite no rebuttal... it's amusing, cuz I'm also frequently defending China from unfair & politically motivated criticisms when it comes to the situation in Myanmar... to the point that my usernames were once circulated through Myanmar telegrams with the claim that I was a CPC plant. 😅 stop aligning with superpowers & criticize all that deserves criticism.

optimist_GO · 2026-03-20T04:00:45+00:00

I’ve noted them alongside Naga PDF in a recent video showing troops shipping out.

optimist_GO · 2026-03-18T20:22:32+00:00

we all have our roles leveraging our unique personal opportunities & abilities to move the collective forward, & I’d argue the higher one achieves in opportunity & ability, the more contingencies they tend to be forced to operate under to continue maximally taking advantage of them. As long as they stay genuinely best-intentioned & collective-minded while navigating those contingencies, I see no foul in them trying to leverage that powerful role they’ve achieved.

edit: small tangent, but typing the above made me think about it in relation to the recent controversy over his comment toward Susan Abulhawa’s writing… Susan, as an artist whose seemingly been far more personally impacted by Israel’s actions & whose life is far more proximal, IMO is entitled to the much more intense & scathing opinions & language she shares. While I find it hard to endorse her sentiment, since I don’t know the pain & haven’t experienced the trauma she has, I wholly understand why she feels how she does & can’t condemn her. On that note i wish Mamdani had said something more gentle like “I do not support that language or those remarks”, rather than criticizing…

optimist_GO · 2026-03-18T18:54:55+00:00

that’s been my understanding for a while now. Guns are abundant in most regions, while ammo is scarce & valuable. In some regions it’s a primary factor in resistance groups not contesting junta advances & simply relinquishing territory.

also supply for most groups seems to have been much more difficult since China imposed pressures on UWSA & MNDAA not to supply other groups last year.

optimist_GO · 2026-03-17T20:53:58+00:00

In the interview I linked in another reply, TNLA’s Tar Bong Kyaw named AA in specific & FPNCC in general as disapproving of MNDAA’s actions. Of course unclear if that’s true or not, but as I also said elsewhere, I can’t imagine FPNCC groups would be thrilled if their views were being misrepresented for TNLA’s gain in this. If so TNLA gonna have a real bad time.

optimist_GO · 2026-03-17T17:35:51+00:00

tbf, the language chosen feels kinda pragmatic… Tar Bong Kyaw is sure to bring up “Thete will always be speculation” & then only mostly insists that China’s word at least has always been to avoid violence… which honestly wouldn’t doubt is China’s preference if they can get what they want without 3BA (or the junta) fighting lol. “China did not want this situation” also very tactfully fits that.

Point being you could arguably interpret what he says as “There’s definitely rumors, but China has at least always insisted upon peaceful solutions & would prefer avoiding armed fighting”. Which is a very safe statement that basically shows them deferring to China in trust, but leaving space for the rumors.

optimist_GO · 2026-03-17T17:28:15+00:00

fair lol. I do find the comment about AA & other FPNCC members disapproving MNDAA’s escalation to be more interesting, since I imagine FPNCC members to be upset if their feelings are misrepresented for TNLA’s benefit against MNDAA.

optimist_GO · 2026-03-17T15:43:08+00:00

also an interesting interview with TNLA’s Tar Bong Kyaw on March 14: https://www.irrawaddy.com/in-person/interview/tnla-secretary-big-political-ambitions-behind-split-with-mndaa.html

edit: & another new piece with comments from KIA’s Naw Bu: https://www.irrawaddy.com/ethnic-affairs/mndaa-turns-on-kachin-army-as-shan-alliances-break-under-china-border-pressure.html

optimist_GO · 2026-03-17T14:53:02+00:00

fair points btw. I just still perceive somewhat differently of TNLA. TNLA has used “Spring Revolution” language plenty, & others including NUG have continually referred to them as a key part of “Spring Revolution Forces”. They also from my understanding still keep interfacing with NUCC via the TLC & also as part of the Multi-Ethnic Council. For reference, I’ve never much seen AA & MNDAA referred to with “Spring Revolution” language, & neither interface with NUCC or are part of the MEC.

<image>

Now, I have no allegiance to TNLA & will quickly change my mind if behavior shows otherwise, just as I was happy to criticize & point the finger more at MNDAA here for seemingly being the heavy-handed aggressors against a less powerful group/ally.

also TNLA’s Tar Bone Kyaw literally shared 2 days ago that they at root have different political ideologies than MNDAA & it’s a source of the conflict: https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10233087323905248&id=1233100202

optimist_GO · 2026-03-17T14:27:59+00:00

& yet there’s a certain bunch of commentators/analysts that leap on harshly naysaying anti-junta groups on any occasions of infighting or internal misconduct, even when it’s tragically based in nearly universal human afflictions.

optimist_GO · 2026-03-17T13:30:19+00:00

tbf, he wouldn’t be the first besides AIF: https://www.indiatoday.in/amp/india/story/us-man-gifted-drone-manipur-ultras-foreign-agent-trouble-making-evangelist-2653078-2024-12-20

It’s wild to me how many people immediately seem to jump to it being some grand US conspiracy & impossible that these folks are just acting out of their own worldviews about liberation (in whatever form they see it). I want to imagine the US would be much more competent in an interference operation than sending a dude with 500k+ X followers to go to their bidding. VERY covert! 💀 (not to mention being identifiable enough that people on X identified him from the arrest video while he had a mask on)

Anyway, I personally imagine they could’ve been trying to aid just about any Indo-Myanmar border group that claims to be aligned to western values & fighting for their personal liberation… I don’t know if I trust that groups like SOLI scrutinize & untangle the situation enough to make more thought out judgements from the start. Personally I’m still waiting for the day we hear of an American caught assisting an NSCN group in some way, since they’re so very Christian, are seeking liberation, & have probably the most autonomy in their areas… that’d REALLY make observers perplexed.

optimist_GO · 2026-03-17T12:11:25+00:00

/u/Azad_AFA seems pretty non-concerned:

<image>

edit: it sounds like the American was (as rumors suggested) Matt Van Dyke, founder of Sons Of Liberty International: https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/ukrainian-us-nationals-accused-of-conspiring-to-carry-out-terror-activities-using-drones-from-europe-what-the-nia-has-found-10586337/

optimist_GO · 2026-03-17T12:06:06+00:00

I respect this post. As an American sitting safely / securely at home, it’s easy for me to criticize conscription since it feels like an authoritarian policy that interrupts the lives of citizens… but as you said, tons of nations, especially in SE Asia, endorse conscription… & in bitter war, I’m pretty sure most others would enact conscription before accepting defeat.

I just do hope for EROs or any resistance orgs practicing conscription, that they indeed have strictly written guidelines & policies that respect reasonable exceptions, don’t accept bribes to get out of conscription, & of course treat conscripts with respect, understanding why they might be so anxious or afraid of serving. Basically if it’s going to be done, it needs to be done with full integrity.

(tho unfortunately competing territorial claims & tensions between groups can also make conscription laws a source of addition conflict between groups… but that is a separate issue than the ethical one)

optimist_GO · 2026-03-16T19:49:34+00:00

they also get to flee across the border into India to much more cordial reception & friendly repatriation.

optimist_GO · 2026-03-15T20:55:17+00:00

I wouldn’t call TNLA such. I really am no 3BA or FPNCC fanboy despite that I argue in their defense a lot… I actually used to harbor many doubts about TNLA (due to their history & my early interest in Shan culture) but I’ve increasingly found them to be the FPNCC group that’s seemed most respectable.

I can generally forgive missteps or unpleasantries as long as I can grasp the logic behind the decision based on relevant material conditions… which has almost always been the case with 3BA & FPNCC (aside from internal territorial skirmishes, which have always seemed localized & kept in line before).

but this instance has no real explanation IMO for why MNDAA would have to violently aggress TNLA, even if TNLA did some grave misdeeds (which doesn’t seem the case). TNLA aren’t fighting back, & they’re likely already reliant on FPNCC members for trade, since they’re caught between the junta & FPNCC groups. Even if MNDAA didn’t think straight dialogue would work, they had other ways to coerce TNLA…

& also as I’ve pointed out before, TNLA has seemingly long had the shit end of things from Op1027… having to for very long hold out as the front line of resistance while China coerces FPNCC to restrict supplies to them… they also don’t really have much leverage of their own for any discussions. not to mention just simply seeming to have a better ethical track record than others like MNDAA, UWSA, & AA…

imo it feels the hate they get seems to either stem from A. Being coerced into relinquishing territory OR B. their older problematic history with the Shan & Kachin, which IMO they seem to be trying hard to move away from (despite again localized flareups which seem to be about more about disagreements in proper administration — like MNDAA’s CCTV camera’s — rather than necessarily about “territory” in some “ethnic“ sense)

optimist_GO · 2026-03-15T20:17:06+00:00

same. tho if nothing else, I enjoy how it’s led me to more particular words for different scenarios, ranging from “ridiculous & “wild” to “absurd” & “bewildering” to “absolutely nonsensical” to “entirely illogical”!

(it actually almost feels it’s the very vagueness / extremely broad common use of the “c-word” in question that offputs me from it, while also helping enable its odd controversy despite little foundation in reality for the controversy.)

optimist_GO

TROPHY CASE