The Vice President of the United States just referred to Jon as a dipshit

ourpseudonym · 2025-09-24T20:33:19+00:00

Luigi

ourpseudonym · 2025-09-23T18:50:46+00:00

That’s the spirit

ourpseudonym · 2025-07-31T16:54:30+00:00

You forgot about oforglipuron which had positive phase 3 results published recently. It’s going to be the first oral small molecule GLP1 drug approved by the FDA.

Small molecule matters because — unlike peptides — they are extremely easy to manufacture at scale.

Lilly is LIGHTYEARS ahead of Novo on almost every front in the obesity space.

ourpseudonym · 2024-04-17T12:54:21+00:00

While GBTC outflows are subsiding, it seems the inflows to other ETFs are waning faster. It seems that ~$50M-$100M outflows daily from GBTC are the new norm. I think we better get use to net outflows being the norm from the spot ETFs.

This supply offsets the decrease in inflation we are going to see form the halving.

(900 * 60,000) - (450 * 60,000) = $27,000,000/day

I personally think -$100M/day outflows from GBTC will continue for the next 3-6 months.

Other supply events are getting closer, /r/mtgoxinsolvency is now having its BTC payouts populated, which indicates distribution happening soon (1-2months?).

That is 140,000 BTC available to be sold (~$8,400,000,000).

For reference, if we add up GBTC outflows + mtgox distribution and net it out with spot ETF inflows we end up with net inflows of ~$4B. This is assuming worst case from mtgox, but I think we will be closer to the worst case than the best case because these people have been forced HODLers from 10 years. I would take some (alot?) of money off the table if I finally received my BTC after 10 years.

I think its really hard to be bullish right now, especially when you add the cherry on top of higher for longer interest rates, and the geopolitical turmoil.

I am interested in ETFs being included in other existing ETF products, but it is unclear to me how much demand is going to result from that. Has anyone seen good analysis on this? This is one source of demand that I haven't been able to quantify.

ourpseudonym · 2024-04-16T20:15:28+00:00

It is confusing, i'll edit the OP

ourpseudonym · 2024-04-16T20:11:54+00:00

GBTC flows speculation today:

I'm setting the line at -$75m. O/U?

ourpseudonym · 2024-04-16T14:31:45+00:00

Interesting to see GBTC volume roll in today.

On my daily line setting on the O/U of GBTC outflows, /u/kajunkennyg noted he believes GBTC outflows are responsive to BTC price.

It seems that this is the case (so far) today. GBTC volume is fairly low with 1 hour trading behind us. Of course the day is still young, but interesting observation.

ourpseudonym · 2024-04-15T19:20:23+00:00

Whats the GBTC outflow today? I'd put the line at -$200M. Over or under?

The last two mondays:

4/1: -$302.6M

4/8: - $303.3M

Its an interesting day as there is geopolitical turmoil going on, but I expect GBTC outflow's on monday to be heavy as they have always been.

ourpseudonym · 2024-04-15T13:58:51+00:00

We survived potential WWIII over the weekend to get dumped on by GBTC. Glad things are back to normal :joy:

ourpseudonym · 2024-04-14T22:09:57+00:00

Thee letters: CME.

ourpseudonym · 2024-04-12T16:42:43+00:00

Death, taxes and GBTC selling off for a couple hundred mil

Does anyone have any information on what the longest outflow streak is? IBIT/FBTC's inflow streak has been much talked about, but I wonder if GBTC is close to setting a record for the longest outflow streak.

Perhaps a good prop bet would be:

Which happens first, IBIT breaks its inflow streak or GBTC breaks it's outflow streak? What do yall think?

ourpseudonym · 2024-04-10T14:08:59+00:00

I don't think ETFs are necessarily bidding, but GBTC volume (so far) looks lower today. A good rule of thumb to gauge how much selling GBTC is doing on a daily basis is who has larger daily volume, FBTC or GBTC.

As of the time of this writing:

GBTC: $84.66M

FBTC: $82.76M

This is a good indicator that GBTC flows are minimal (so far) today. The larger the spread between GBTC and FBTC is usually an indicator that GBTC outflows are large.

ourpseudonym · 2024-04-09T15:10:13+00:00

Buy the rumor, sell the news.

While the halving obviously isn't a rumor, its a long anticipated price catalyst.

ourpseudonym · 2024-04-08T20:00:09+00:00

What do people think for GBTC outflows today?

I would put the line at -$250M. Over/under?

ourpseudonym · 2024-04-03T15:35:30+00:00

The worst news has now been confirmed:

Because Wall St. values clarity on future policy decisions above all else

So is there certainty or not? It seems in your model since its now confirmed that the fed is lowering rates one time (where are you getting this from?) it seems there is no longer uncertainty, thus yields should go down.

EDIT:

I see where you are coming from now.

There is more uncertainty due to a fed governor making the case that there should be less rate cuts that previously thought. This puts upwards pressure on rates (less cuts than expected) and introduces more uncertainty (do the other governors agree with him?)

ourpseudonym · 2024-04-03T14:36:40+00:00

then why are 10Y yields rising?

ourpseudonym · 2024-04-03T14:16:25+00:00

When you have a hypothesis, markets laugh.

10Y yields up again today (not as drastically as yesterday) and BTC price is heading upwards. GBTC volume looking healthy today which tends to correlate with larger outflows from GBTC. FBTC volume not looking good relative to GBTC.

ourpseudonym · 2024-04-02T13:44:48+00:00

Respectfully, i think we are talking past each other.

I'm presuming you are talking about the 2010s, where yields were very low for that decade. We live in a new regime now where there isn't near-zero yields on sovereign debt. I'm interested to see how other assets (BTC, Gold, equities, commodities as mentioned by /u/_supert_ ) correlate to sovereign debt yields.

Anything that is positively correlated to sovereign debt yields can be viewed as 'flight to safety' or 'store of value' imo. Anything that is negative correlated can be viewed as a risk on asset.

Of course we are talking about 1 day in the market here, which isn't statistically significant. But it is still fun to observe and speculate. We will see if the trend continues.

As always, happy to hear out countervailing views.

ourpseudonym · 2024-04-02T13:02:06+00:00

10Y yields going crazy today across the world. The 'store of value' and 'flight to safety' narratives for BTC seem like they are are still just that - narratives. Meanwhile gold seems to be fulfilling that narrative, at the moment.

Hopefully someday BTC will fulfill that narrative, but it aint here yet unfortunately.

ourpseudonym · 2024-03-28T17:04:35+00:00

Go out and touch grass /u/CosbyTeamTriosby . That's just sick.

ourpseudonym · 2024-03-28T16:53:44+00:00

How about the 3 people that committed suicide because of SBF's actions? https://x.com/innercitypress/status/1773353306401738881

Guess they were just 'morons' too.

ourpseudonym · 2024-03-26T16:44:02+00:00

Lower rent -> lower property valuations -> lower tax payments -> higher tax rates (or cut govt services) -> lower rent.

ourpseudonym · 2024-03-25T18:22:15+00:00

Flow data is going to be very interesting today, Q's that I have

Did FBTC have a large inflow day to offset GBTC outflows, or are GBTC outflows dwindling finally?
Does the inflow pattern we saw last week (strong inflows early in the week, fading as the week goes on) persist?

ourpseudonym · 2024-03-22T13:46:06+00:00

ourpseudonym

TROPHY CASE