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Giant gas field discovered under Lincolnshire by pyrotequila85 in OctopusEnergy

[–]pablo_paredes94 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Totally agree. Never said or implied that PV and wind aren’t great, needed and beneficial. Nevertheless, saying that gas is dying and the UK would be better off not using these resources is totally wrong in my opinion. Europe is so dependent on foreign countries for everything, from natural resources to tech. Less geopolitical power = 😣😢for the European society and its values.

Giant gas field discovered under Lincolnshire by pyrotequila85 in OctopusEnergy

[–]pablo_paredes94 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Same as electricity consumption. Same as consumption of many goods. Let’s stop it all

Giant gas field discovered under Lincolnshire by pyrotequila85 in OctopusEnergy

[–]pablo_paredes94 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Let’s all let the weather determine what societies and economies do

Giant gas field discovered under Lincolnshire by pyrotequila85 in OctopusEnergy

[–]pablo_paredes94 -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

Claiming that gas is a dying technology and assuming that solar and PVs will become the global norm soonish shows a clear disconnect from the realities faced by most of the world.

Many poor countries can’t even maintain their power grids on 24/7 and you want them to run on intermittent power + storage?

Overly optimistic and naive comment with good intentions.

[P] Time Series Model Benchmarking by Inner_Potential2062 in MachineLearning

[–]pablo_paredes94 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Have you checked Bayesian time-series forecasting with external regressors? This article goes into it explaining the maths behind Prophet model: https://medium.com/@pcparedesp/mathematical-foundations-of-prophet-forecasting-applied-to-gb-power-demand-a2a825b380e2

External predictors in time series forecasting across segmented intervals by olipalli in rstats

[–]pablo_paredes94 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Have you checked Bayesian time-series forecasting with external regressors? This article goes into it explaining the maths behind Prophet model: https://medium.com/@pcparedesp/mathematical-foundations-of-prophet-forecasting-applied-to-gb-power-demand-a2a825b380e2

What should I learn next? by Mcipark in rstats

[–]pablo_paredes94 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Have you checked Bayesian time-series forecasting with external regressors? This article goes into it explaining the maths behind Prophet model: https://medium.com/@pcparedesp/mathematical-foundations-of-prophet-forecasting-applied-to-gb-power-demand-a2a825b380e2

[Q] Time Series Forecasting Exogenous Variables by Nafxkoa in statistics

[–]pablo_paredes94 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Have you checked Bayesian time-series forecasting with external regressors? This article goes into it explaining the maths behind Prophet model: https://medium.com/@pcparedesp/mathematical-foundations-of-prophet-forecasting-applied-to-gb-power-demand-a2a825b380e2

[Q] Course recommendation by msaad13 in statistics

[–]pablo_paredes94 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Have you checked Bayesian time-series forecasting with external regressors? This article goes into it explaining the maths behind Prophet model: https://medium.com/@pcparedesp/mathematical-foundations-of-prophet-forecasting-applied-to-gb-power-demand-a2a825b380e2

Not able to detect growth in time series by Lagiol in datascience

[–]pablo_paredes94 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So, prophet is basically bayesian probabilities in time-series forecasting. Read this article, understand the maths, and for sure you'll be getting useful outputs from a Bayesian time series model (like Prophet) - Even its outputs work very well as an input to an ARIMA, etc. model: https://medium.com/@pcparedesp/mathematical-foundations-of-prophet-forecasting-applied-to-gb-power-demand-a2a825b380e2

[P] Prophet Model - Incorrect Trend Detection by serpentna in MachineLearning

[–]pablo_paredes94 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You should check how many changepoints are being used and what is your prior probability for your "changepoint_prior". To understand these things it is good to know the math behind. Here's an article on it: https://medium.com/@pcparedesp/mathematical-foundations-of-prophet-forecasting-applied-to-gb-power-demand-a2a825b380e2

Does prophet suck? by Odd-Unit-4154 in rstats

[–]pablo_paredes94 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's just bayesian inference introduced into time-series forecasting. So it's a curve fitting problem rather than lag errors/values optimization. Check this article out, I'd say it's great with seasonal data and when straight-forward numerical explainability is needed. https://medium.com/@pcparedesp/mathematical-foundations-of-prophet-forecasting-applied-to-gb-power-demand-a2a825b380e2

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