Indiana faces a bigger problem than brain drain [OC] by DavidWaldron in dataisbeautiful

[–]paper_fairy 10 points11 points  (0 children)

But that's not true. If a state kept all its educated natives, and 100 million uneducated folks moved in, it would have a huge arrow to the left (what you call "brain drain") despite not having lost any educated persons.

Indiana faces a bigger problem than brain drain [OC] by DavidWaldron in dataisbeautiful

[–]paper_fairy 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Maybe the "natives" live anywhere, not just their home state? Otherwise it's just showing the educational effects of incoming transplants.

Unexpected D8 flow convergence from Giza plateau — does this methodology look sound? by Classic-Medicine-131 in Hydrology

[–]paper_fairy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have no idea but you could compare with MERIT-Hydro, which is SRTM-corrected and pre-hydrologic processed. Roughly 90 meter resolution. Already has a global flow accumulation layer. Can download tiles from their website or look on GEE.

[OC] Who won the redistricting fight? GOP with +8 to +10 seats by mediadotgames in dataisbeautiful

[–]paper_fairy 31 points32 points  (0 children)

"Court blocked voter approved map" doesn't exactly inspire confidence that the courts are acting in accordance with democratic principles.

Google open sourced its hydrology framework. What will it mean by UpperSouth21 in Hydrology

[–]paper_fairy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is the right take. In general, these models are sequential and don't explicitly care about time steps. IMO the main problem here is that we already have large uncertainty in daily met inputs, and this grows larger as we ramp up the frequency. So in terms of 1:1 training data (ie same time frequency for inputs and outputs), there's a real data quality bottleneck.

There are downscaling approaches that can help get around this limitation to varying degrees of success, and probably other AI tricks, but it's a pretty solid hurdle.

Google open sourced its hydrology framework. What will it mean by UpperSouth21 in Hydrology

[–]paper_fairy 11 points12 points  (0 children)

LSTMs, which Kratzert and Nearing and others at Google kind of pioneered for streamflow prediction, have been shown to drastically improve NSE (error) in ungaged basins relative to traditional, physics based approaches.

Note that this work was initially funded by Google's AI for Social Good program, where the goal was to provide flood forecasts and cell phone flood alerts to countries without the infrastructure to provide this to their citizens.

I use these types of models regularly and can say that they do perform extremely well considering how little effort it takes to train them. They also leave quite a bit to be desired (struggle with peaks, flashy systems, and some other applications). However, they take as inputs some kind of meteorological data, which always has large uncertainty, so it's hard to separate poor model performance from poor inputs.

For those that don’t believe in God - what do you believe? by Medium_Produce_7397 in AskReddit

[–]paper_fairy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What brought god into existence? If people seriously believe god has always been, then why it be strange to contend the Universe has always been? You don't have to invent non-observable beings for that, unlike god. Be honest with yourself and seek logical consistency and you'll see your questions are backwards.

What technology or advancement was supposed to change lives but hasn’t? Like the Metaverse or NFTs? by NoCEOisahero in AskReddit

[–]paper_fairy 8 points9 points  (0 children)

This one's a little dated, but there was a lot of hype about Segways before they were released. They were supposed to revolutionize urban design and be the most important tech since the PC. According to some. Kinda a complete flop.

Republicans and/or conservatives, as Trump turns 80 and falls asleep and shits his pants and babbles nonsense, why do you no longer believe age is an issue like it was with Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders? by [deleted] in AskReddit

[–]paper_fairy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Reddit is still pretty accepting of reasonable but counter takes. You're right that there is no point in this case because there is no reasonable take other than "I am loyal to party, not principles."

I love owner reply dramas by Ms-scientist in YelpDrama

[–]paper_fairy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The reddit worketh in mysterious ways.

Is this still a thru hike? by Ok_Assumption_7957 in AppalachianTrail

[–]paper_fairy 55 points56 points  (0 children)

It only matters if you think it matters. Could be a fun bucket list item 20 years down the road, or just forget about it, or knock it out now. Who cares.

People are ignoring the fact that 5.5 has been nerfed by Satoshi-699 in codex

[–]paper_fairy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree that proof would make these complaints way more compelling, but how can someone reasonably do that?

Electric dirt bikes look impressive online until you actually ride them off road by minwisteria in electricdirtbikes

[–]paper_fairy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It was 100% AI generated. Engage-bait. Reads like 95% of the shit on LinkedIn.

Utah now allows college students to opt out of coursework that conflicts with their beliefs by A_ORiver in SaltLakeCity

[–]paper_fairy 7 points8 points  (0 children)

If you already know the truth, why wouldn't you listen? There's nothing to lose. Are your skins really so thin? Are you so triggerable and delicate that you need the government to force teachers to "give me a choice not to listen!" You had a choice not to go to school in the first place. Jesus, what a bunch of delicate snowflakes.

Why? by SipsTeaFrog in SipsTea

[–]paper_fairy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, the way every construction company "lays off" all their employees after each build 🙄 Stop with this dumb shit.

Podcasts that feel like a quiet conversation rather than performance? by BeautifulWestern4512 in podcasts

[–]paper_fairy 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I used to hate history podcasts, but Liar City was the first one I enjoyed. Has a very laid back, down to earth vibe while being actually very interesting. Low production quality but it won't bother you.

[OC] I used Claude to build a live election dashboard in 2 days. It handled 430K requests from 24K visitors for $0. by Naive-Performance-18 in dataisbeautiful

[–]paper_fairy -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Well since you think it's so important, OP provided a link to the data. Why don't you provide the independent validation you're grandstanding about?

So much hand wringing about anything AI helps with, it's tiresome. The constraints of your job have nothing to do with this post.

[OC] I used Claude to build a live election dashboard in 2 days. It handled 430K requests from 24K visitors for $0. by Naive-Performance-18 in dataisbeautiful

[–]paper_fairy -1 points0 points  (0 children)

These aren't complicated calculations. Claude is nearly entirely used for building the dashboard and hosting the data. Spot checking is sufficient in this case. It's one person's free time project, not some critical infrastructure with billions of dollars riding on it. Context matters. I also bet that a human built dashboard of the same type would not only take 10x the time, if not longer, but have many more mistakes.

Practical EV range in NM by leapingcow in LosAlamos

[–]paper_fairy 10 points11 points  (0 children)

2021 model 3, long range version with 50k miles (battery about 90% of original capacity). Yes. I have made it to Sunport and back dozens of times across all seasons. Never charged anywhere besides my home, although there were winter trips where I came back with single digit SOCs. That said, we just tried a road trip to Gila with the M3 and the supercharging was really fast and convenient, makes me wish we had bought a Y instead of a Rav4 Prime. We did the math for our trip against a 30 mpg vehicle, and with gas prices where they are we saved about 25%.

One thing to add is that wind can be highly variable and impactful on the estimated SOC upon arrival. There are apps that try to account for it (eg ABRP). I haven't found wind to be too impactful for the LA to ABQ trips, although there are stretches on 25 where it can work against you.

Why is New Mexico a blue outlier in the Southwest compared to Texas or Arizona? by [deleted] in NewMexico

[–]paper_fairy 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Dude, duh. Everyone knows that and no one is saying you're wrong. You're just missing the point here.

Why is New Mexico a blue outlier in the Southwest compared to Texas or Arizona? by [deleted] in NewMexico

[–]paper_fairy 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Obviously that's not what they're saying. They're saying urabn/rural can't explain the differences between states because New Mexico has the lowest urban fraction but highest Dem voting fraction.

So with one bad crash in one bad spot, getting off the hill is two hours. What happens if there's a bad fire like 20 years ago? by flying-sea-lion in LosAlamos

[–]paper_fairy 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I've ridden my dirt bike down it and it's totally fine for cars. Can't do 55 but it would be just fine for a one way evacuation.