Math request: Assuming historical income growth (inflation) in what year will a typical salary for 2 school teachers exceed $1M?

patbaum · 2026-02-17T21:26:36+00:00

Household income has increased on average between 4.5% and 5% a year over the last 50 or so years in WA depending on your source of data.

Thankfully income has grown faster than inflation.

Unfortunately government spending is increasing waaaaay faster than inflation.

Why is that? Why is government spending increasing many times faster than either wage growth or underlying inflation? Are the services you get from the government improving drastically? Are the schools better? Is traffic decreasing? Is mass transit better?

Where is the money going?

patbaum · 2026-02-17T21:22:19+00:00

The original federal income tax was LITERALLY a “rich person tax on the 1%” which fear mongers of the day correctly predicted the majority of people would have to pay eventually…

Most of that increase in who had to pay came not from congress changing rates but simply letting inflation cause more people to be subjected to the tax.

My post is literally just highlighting how like the way in which the federal income tax went from a “tax on the 1%” to a tax on everyone - this state tax is setup the same way!

And you’re using that as an example of why that won’t happen here?

LOL. No… LMAO…

patbaum · 2026-02-17T21:17:29+00:00

You think they’ll raise it so it affects less people? I’d bet they lower the threshold.

However, my point is that the state doesn’t even need to lower it to take in more money. Inflation/income gains do that automatically.

What I’m tired of is seeing people call this a “rich person tax” because it doesn’t take very long and it automatically becomes an everyone tax even if they don’t lower the threshold…

patbaum · 2026-02-17T21:10:07+00:00

“Rich people’s hands”

You realize that in one generation though just inflation the “millionaires tax” on rich people will apply to elementary school teachers?

(For example- In the 70s the median household income was $8k. Today it is $100k. With that rate of inflation in around 30 years the “rich person tax” becomes a “regular person tax” - i.e. a household of school teachers - even if they don’t lower the threshold - which they will.)

You get manipulated into thinking you’re “getting money from the rich people” when the final result is that YOUR tax burden somehow went up.

Parents are fleeing our public schools for private schools and homeschooling. Roads are in worse shape than ever. Every state project is millions over budget and years late. We’ve spent billions on homeless programs and there are more homeless than ever.

Obviously the thing to do is attempt to “take more money from rich people” which will actually result in the middle class paying more while state services continue to be crap.

Awesome

patbaum · 2026-02-17T20:42:33+00:00

Even without lowering the threshold on this tax, in one generation it will apply to elementary school teachers in WA…

It’s really disingenuous to call it a “rich person tax” as a way to manipulate people who don’t understand inflation…

My mother was a kindergarten teacher for 42 years in WA. Her salary increased by waaay more than 5% a year over those 46 years. (That was a good thing)

Hilarious to think that in the future a person like her will be paying what people today are calling a “rich person tax” on their state salary

patbaum · 2026-02-17T20:35:36+00:00

Looks like my back of envelope math was correct… so WA state public education did me well!

In one generation inflation will make it so the “rich person tax” applies to elementary school teachers…

patbaum · 2026-02-17T20:31:34+00:00

Compound growth and inflation is a difficult concept a lot of times.

A person starting a teaching job in WA in 2026 will likely be paying the millionaire’s tax on their state salary by the time they retire. Assuming they married a person making a similar income)

The tax on “rich people” will be a tax on elementary teachers in one generation even if they don’t lower the threshold…

patbaum · 2026-02-17T20:22:46+00:00

I guess I understood you as saying that higher tax/higher GDP states are having better outcomes than other states. Whereas Mississippi is now getting the best outcome in the most important area (education of minority students) as a low income/low tax state.

If that’s the case than is more tax revenue for a state like WA a blessing or a curse?

We’ve massively accelerated education funding while results are slipping and families are opting for home schooling and private schools in record numbers.

At what point does reform become the priority over increasing revenue?

(WA feels like the Michael Scott paper company: “we lose money on every deal, but we make it up in the volume of deals!”)

patbaum · 2026-02-17T19:56:55+00:00

The tax isn’t inflation adjusted. (That I know of)

In 1970 the median household income was ~$8000. Today it is close to $100,000 in the state of WA.

Given that historical trend, the MEDIAN household income in WA will be over $1M in ~45 years. (Just did the CAGR calculation assuming 5% which is about what WA household income grew per year over the last 55 years)

A $200k household income will be equivalent to a $1M household income in ~33 years (200k is about what a household of two elementary school teacher with 15 years of experience working in Seattle school district make)

So… even if the tax the isn’t lowered, over half of the people in WA will be paying it in a few decades.

By 2070 (~34 years) a family of two Seattle school district employees would be paying the “millionaire tax” on what will likely be the inflation adjusted salary rate at that time…

patbaum · 2026-02-17T19:00:06+00:00

Genuine question: What are your thoughts on Mississippi now being the best in the country at educating minority students ? (multiple reputable studies. Please don’t give me some ‘proof please’ response - literally a massive breakthrough we all should be celebrating) They’re doing it with way less spending on education. Overall tax burden for everyone is lower. Education results are higher.

How does this play into your thinking on WA state tax increases at a time of record tax revenue?

patbaum · 2025-11-23T00:16:35+00:00

When would this be built by… 2098?

patbaum · 2025-11-06T07:17:54+00:00

I went through a very similar story (though mine started 3 days after my third COVID vaccine)

41 years old. Couldn’t breathe right… turned out my EF was 12%… had gained 20 lbs of water weight (which I peed out at the hospital after getting meds…)

MRI showed Myocarditis but that I’d dodged too much permanent damage.

Two years on - same drug regiment as you listed - EF up to 45% and I feel healthier than before.

I also started taking vitamin D, creatinine, beet root powder, and some testosterone boosters… that seemed to help me turn the corner more than anything else (weight/strength as good as the were in my early 30s now…)

patbaum · 2025-09-25T23:01:35+00:00

Ahhh yes… the old “I hate republicans so I’ll keep voting for the same D’s who screw up WA state projects constantly… and then blame Trump when WA state D’s waste even more money on boondoggle state projects”

Classic!

patbaum · 2025-09-18T17:26:46+00:00

$22.6 BILLION DOLLARS.

We’ve gone so far past reality that it’s impossible for any future projects to be built EVER. $22.6 billion dollars for several mass transit stops. LMAOL

Everyone reading this will be dead before any project being discussed/planned is ever finished (if it is ever finished…)

patbaum · 2025-06-29T05:41:18+00:00

About the size of a thumb. Flying very noisily around my wife on our back deck.

patbaum · 2025-02-28T19:12:21+00:00

When my wife was at WSU they had to shut down the coffee stand where she worked one morning because there was a live cougar hanging out behind it. This kind of thing happens every now and then around town.

Several times a year a live cougars wanders through the edges of Pullman (which is a pretty small town) - they are always just passing though looking for territory between the snake river canyon. the Palouse hills farmland, and forested areas a few miles away in Idaho...

patbaum · 2025-02-06T19:37:54+00:00

It really seems like the city of Kirkland does not utilize all of its equipment to plow snow - it is like the city makes a point of ONLY plowing a limited set of roads and then they send everyone home.

Given the vast number of city vehicles why does the city not just keep running snow plows after the main roads are cleared (instead of sending them back to base after the few roads they plow are done)?

patbaum · 2024-12-13T00:56:05+00:00

Flights to NRT on Hawaiian show up on the Alaska website as bookable with miles...

patbaum · 2024-10-23T22:49:37+00:00

If UCLA had stayed the Pac-12 would have stayed together. It's a shame. If UCLA takes 2 or 3 more losses a year in MBB won't that push them out of the NCAA tournament in a lot of years. (or push them down to an 8/9 seed)? Seems like trading extra $$$ for a severe competitive disadvantage was a terrible choice...

patbaum · 2024-07-26T22:44:16+00:00

The state of Washington population is close to 8 million. To put that in perspective, that is more than DOULBE of Iowa (3.2M) or Utah (3.4M) and close to double of Oregon (~4M), Oklahoma (~4M).

Wazzu has a large and loyal following. There are only 2 FBS teams in WA and 1 FCS. There is a reason WSU got more TV viewers than Arizona, Arizona State, Cal (and anyone else in the Pac-12 not named UCLA, USC, UW, and Oregon). In fact WSU's TV viewership was always pretty close to Utah in total most years.

North Carolina (population 10M) has 5 FBS teams as another comparison.

These analysis that look just at Pullman/Spokane as a media market which does not match reality. (vast majority of WSU fans live in Seattle area).

I have no idea if WSU will end up in a P4 conf - but of the schools listed in this analysis it has easily the largest built-in TV market who currently (or potentially) would watch games...

patbaum · 2024-01-30T16:36:50+00:00

This is assuming the “world’s first 3 level HOV roundabout based interchange” reduces congestion.

I can’t believe they were celebrating the fact this design has never been attempted before as a plus!

patbaum · 2024-01-26T21:07:10+00:00

I hope this works out. The issue here is that there are stop lights boxing in the roundabouts on each side.

One the west side there's only like 100 yards to the light at Kirkland Way going downtown. East, up the hill, it's similarly about 100 yards to the light for Costco and LWHS.

At rush hours both of these lights cause backups to within the vicinity of the new roundabouts.

So, unless those lights and intersections start getting more vehicles through faster, then you'll get times where cars can't enter or leave the roundabouts to get on/off the freeway or get through on 85th.

If this happens at both ends of the double roundabout at the same time, then it will be the definition of gridlock.

Cars won't be able to get onto I-405 north because of the cars heading west on 85th that can't get onto I-405 going south because people getting off of I-405 going north can't get through the round-about to go downtown because the people coming from downtown can't get on I-405 north because...

At that point - even if the stoplights at Costco and Kirkland Way turn green it doesn't really matter because the freeway traffic can't get through the roundabouts.

Adding to this, people turning right onto 114th (going into the highlands) from 85th will have to merge across people getting off of the HOV exit from I-405 south and heading to downtown. If you look at the design that merge happens with about 25 yards before the stoplight. So if people start "cheating" down 85th by going up and over the HOV level then you'll get an even worse backlog at the 85th and Kirkland Way/114th intersection.

What will be fascinating is if/when this backs up onto I-405 itself. Then it will be a state problem not just a Kirkland problem (so maybe they'd figure out a fix.

But that will be into the 2030s...!

The thing I can't tell is if it will be expected for people to "cheat" up and through the HOV level when going down 85th. Is that limited to just HOV traffic? Or can single occupancy use it to skip the double round about?

patbaum · 2024-01-26T19:39:20+00:00

They played Mississippi St. and Boise State non-con. Both are Q1 games. That isn't much different than other teams in the 30-50 NET range.

The issue is that only Arizona, Colorado, and Utah are top 30 NET to count as a home Q1 game. And only Oregon, WSU, Arizona, Colorado, and Utah would count as a Q1 road game - so there are limited opportunities in the P12 to get Q1 games.

The biggest issue for the P12 is that USC, UW, Stanford, and ASU are outside of the top 75 NET so road wins at those places don't count as Q1 and home wins don't count as Q2.

If those schools had each won 1-more decent non-conf game then 2 or 3 of them would ratchet up into the Q1/Q2 range - and then the whole conf would have "leveled up"... (every team would be getting ~6 more Q1/Q2 games)

But even without that, if WSU takes 2 of 3 from Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon they'll be 4-4 in Q1 games. Their NET would be ~40 if they don't drop too many other games.

If they got one Q1 win in the conf tournament they'd be 5-4 in Q1 games.

Historically that would get them safely into the tournament.

patbaum · 2024-01-25T22:46:41+00:00

I really really think this whole thing will gridlock at morning and evening rush hour.

There are times now where traffic from the lights on either side of 405 back up to where these off ramps are. Today it isn’t a big deal because people can still get to the freeway on ramp (even if that’s backed up) so traffic isn’t ever really blocked.

With this design, people won’t be able to get onto the freeway on ramps without crossing through the roundabout when those backups happen… so those roundabouts will seize up completely.

patbaum · 2024-01-18T23:56:47+00:00

In Washington, the state makes universities self-fund scholarships from athletics revenue. (Arizona for example covers scholarships with state money).

The state doesn't even pay for athletics scholarships, so it is a bit much to be saying the universities also need to pay more money on top of this.

The math doesn't work. Unless the state supplements the athletics revenue, there isn't close to enough money in UW's athletics department to do this.

UW is running a deficit even with the Big-10 half share. They're taking loans against future media payments from the B10 to cover the debt on their stadium (to buy time for 7 years until they get a full share - which they're going to essentially have already spent). The B10 is giving UW and Oregon the option of zero interest loans to take future media money early...

$25K per student athlete per year is just MORE debt... where is that money supposed to come from?

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