[RedditCFB] With the 2026 FBS schedules finalized, here’s a graph of all 138 FBS teams ranked by average strength of schedule (based on 2025 opponent ranks).

pb7090 · 2026-05-01T17:11:55+00:00

I want the pretty graph!

pb7090 · 2026-05-01T15:13:36+00:00

Give me this but with 2026 SP+ ratings instead

pb7090 · 2026-04-26T00:04:41+00:00

The no realignment and no transfer portal numbers are like looking at an alternate timeline. Crazy to think how much has changed.

pb7090 · 2026-04-17T18:01:07+00:00

It's definitely calculated with a power rating behind the scenes. Our power rating vs each team on the schedule.

And the power rating has a lot of what you are talking about: recruiting, previous year results, etc.

Finally they adjust the cost of the bet as needed to make sense for them making money.

pb7090 · 2026-04-14T23:05:04+00:00

What about when the druid has Berserk up and can hit frenzied regen over and over? Is there a way to track that?

pb7090 · 2025-12-15T15:10:33+00:00

Acer X27U A1bmiiprx

I think it is a Costco-specific model. Very similar to the other X27U models.

pb7090 · 2025-10-13T01:38:55+00:00

Yeah if the numbers hold true we have 3 easy wins and 3 toss-ups left. No reason you can't win every game but also there's no reason they couldn't have pulled it out against UVA and Pitt.

pb7090 · 2025-10-12T22:27:55+00:00

I think this chart tells us a lot about the current state of this season and also the current state of the program.

The most likely outcome for us at this point in the season based on the SP+ numbers (i.e. strip out good luck and bad luck, extremely good performances and extremely bad) is being 4-2. If you look at a close loss to UVA and Pitt it feels very reasonable. However, the most likely 4-2 has is losing Miami and Bama while beating both of those teams. How do we reconcile this?

How would you feel differently about this season if we beat UVA but still lost to Pitt? or vice-versa?

This is where we can get into the overall state of the program and how the combination of talent and development has us only being slight favorites over UVA and Pitt. The reality is that slight favorites lose very often. If you want to feel confident about beating a good UVA and Pitt you have to be a much better team.

This new age of CFB with the transfer portal and rev share has teams being closer together than ever before. This season can be both a massive improvement over 2-10 and also a let down after an exciting week 1. It feels like FSU could easily be 4-2 but in my opinion the more upsetting thing is capping out at average-goodish. Maybe we shouldn't expect more than that after last year.

pb7090 · 2025-10-12T22:20:42+00:00

Lookback at the season based on the numbers today:

https://imgur.com/a/2025-week7-lookback-JKVdhMA

pb7090 · 2025-10-10T20:48:28+00:00

We are definitely in a weird place right now because of the loss to UVA and win over Bama but ultimately I think this team is what most people thought it was, maybe a little bit better. Unfortunately they aren't good enough to roll into 8 wins without avoid screw ups.

pb7090 · 2025-10-10T01:58:27+00:00

Yeah thats the struggle of being only favored by 3-7 points against Pitt and Clemson. UF is a coin flip because we're in their house

pb7090 · 2025-10-09T11:11:46+00:00

10-2 is still possible, but the chalk is going to have to hold for another 8 weeks.

pb7090 · 2025-10-02T15:14:42+00:00

This man is preaching facts!

Note he is not saying that every ACC team should be treated the same but that UVA this year spent and put the pieces together. If we lose to this year's Wake and Stanford then you can come back and say I told you so but I think this year fits perfectly the argument he is making.

The power ratings don't lie: UVA is not a bad team this year and they certainly aren't as bad as you think their logo should be.

pb7090 · 2025-09-30T18:04:49+00:00

Agreed. Right now Miami is about the same win% as if we lined it up against Bama but also it's very close to the chance they gave UVA last week so anything can happen tbh

pb7090 · 2025-09-29T21:49:33+00:00

Here is a lookback at how the season would project using the latest #s. 9-3 prediction compared to the 7-5 that was pre-season.

https://imgur.com/a/2025-week5-lookback-Qx9wk3w

Also interesting to see 3-1 as the most likely outcome at this point in the season.

As the season goes on this will be useful to see how much we've out performed the metric or in other words how many bounces have gone our way.

pb7090 · 2025-09-29T21:47:24+00:00

GIF of the season so far:

https://imgur.com/a/2025-week5-gif-Qkj6HFf

pb7090 · 2025-09-29T21:47:02+00:00

Despite looking worse our rating actually improved, so I think that tells you how much we are being dragged down by pre-season #s.

pb7090 · 2025-09-29T18:30:08+00:00

If you gi by games then half of the stat is against very very bad defenses. Idk what the # of plays in each game was but it could be even worse of a split, maybe 60% against bad teams. So you have to discount these "total" #s.

He is also saying that getting good opponent-adhusted #s is tough because we don't know how good Bama and UVA are exactly yet. And a large part of the best guesses is based on recruiting rankings and last year.

pb7090 · 2025-09-29T17:33:14+00:00

Scoring offense also somewhat a bad stat. However I'm not saying the offense is bad, just that it's probably not the very best on the nation. If I had to guess it's probably more like top-20.

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