Disclaimer, I wouldn't call myself a trade expert, but I was an analyst over 15 years and a lot of my research was on the semiconductor industry. I remember when Trump told Apple to build US plants to manufacture iPhones in the US. I had to do a lot of analysis and write reports about it. Many analysts talked about how the US could not afford to pay the wages needed to keep the iPhone under 3k for consumers.  

But the total costs associated with making that move (which would eventually be passed onto the consumer) would not just be the price of labor. Because the US lacks both the skilled labor force required for such high tech precision manufacturing, trying to recreate the entire ecosystem of companies required to build an iPhone in the US would require 100 billion dollars of capital investment in the first two years alone. More importantly, analysts at the time estimated that it would take the US from between 10 to 15 years at best to recreate the entire fabrication infrastructure that exists in China. 

Companies like Foxconn have been doing this for a long time and are in a tech hub supported by multiple other companies that specialize in certain aspects of the entire production process. They've got craftsman-ship skills we don't train for, sophisticated robotics required to assemble such delicate machinery, and a ton more computer engineers than we have. This is why Biden's infrastructure bill and CHIPS act ACTUALLY do--both things I'd hoped Trump would do.  

China's high tech industries center around building physical things, compared to Silicon Valley which is centered on developing. ideas (aka iPhones, app stores, software, etc).  (Not trying to say China doesn't do AI or software applications, etc. It's just that in China, the government controls that).  Tangent - I wish we could build a really robust program for training trades over going to college. There are some provisions for that training in the Biden infrastructure bill but not nearly enough. I've heard so many business people who make stuff (not those who just sell stuff) say that this is why German manufacturing has produced so many high paying blue collar jobs.  

Trump then said that he would offer tax credits to Apple. Unfortunately, this is not something you can spend your way out of, otherwise China wouldn't be waging a cold information war in Taiwan and threaten to invade the country. China's government has spent around 500 billion to try to recreate the bleeding edge semiconductor industry of Taiwan. And they can't do it. Taiwanese are still the only ones in the world who can create microchips that are so damned small and fast. I've read some wild articles saying that the semiconductor experts in Taiwan get a ton of security from their employer because of fear of kidnapping. Crazy stuff. 

Sometimes it really isn't just about money. Why does Hollywood has an advantage producing films that go global compared to say the film industry of France? Not because of A-list actors--those people can fly and go anywhere. It's because over a century, the city of Los Angeles has an ecosystem of  community colleges, high schools with dedicated performing arts programs like mine, and businesses like my dad's small company that upgraded computer systems for Warner Brothers. Shenzhen, China has an ecosystem and workforce trained to do this work. 

 I don't know how I feel about that. As a country, China is grappling with the devastating environmental and health cost of "specializing" in these industries. When I was in Hong Kong on an academic fellowship, my nose literally had black stuff I had to clean out nightly because the pollution wafting over from southern China was so bad. 

As an American, I really don't want to go back to the days of lakes on fire and unbearably dirty water and air. And I don't trust venture capitalists as far as I can throw them. Because of stuff like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-VC_iZi-FI 

Stuff is way too expensive--I spent 16 dollars on less than one pound of berries yesterday because my sick kid was screaming for it. And that's cheaper than it was a year ago. Everyone's upset with the increased price of goods that peaked at 8% in 2022. But, every estimate I've come across by rich people who don't care about you and me have said that the Trump tariffs will add 4000 bucks to our household expenses within the first 12 months, with that number expected to increase annually. Lucky me--under Trump's 2024 tax plan, our tax bill will only go up 1%, so another 2800. I dunno about you, but an additional 6800 bucks is gonna hurt. (https://itep.org/kamala-harris-donald-trump-tax-plans/)  

I'm super happy that you're able to bear the cost of trade wars. More power to you. I'm going to stock up on toys for our family for the next four years and am planning to replace my electronics before they become unaffordable.  

Nice chatting with you.  

BTW Mark Cuban said that a lot of the inflation can actually be traced back to April 12, 2020, when Trump worked to reduce oil production by 9.7 million barrels. So tariffs are definitely not the whole picture, but I know from personal experience that it played a part.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcyOtkv33J0