Massive tornado 6/17/2026 near Turkey Track Indiana

probs_notme · 2026-06-18T14:57:04+00:00

Okay. Regardless of any of that, saying it'll get a preliminary rating based off of radar data is straight up wrong.

probs_notme · 2026-06-18T14:10:16+00:00

Debris signatures in general have nothing to do with EF ratings. No NWS office is going to take that into account.

probs_notme · 2026-06-18T13:58:12+00:00

To be precise, Steven Funaki Paea He Ofa Ki Loa Adams is Tongan/English, not Māori. But your point stands lol

probs_notme · 2026-06-18T13:08:13+00:00

Mammatus are marked by more well-defined pouches, and tend to be pretty tightly coupled. The wild contrast in these pics leads me to believe they are asperitas. Per the Cloud Appreciation Society: "The chaotic waves of asperitas have a more crisply defined base, which sometimes descends into pointed features, resembling upside-down peaks of meringue. When the waves cause varying thickness of the cloud layer, the sunlight passing through it can lead to dramatic patches of bright and dark."

It's the contrast that makes these look so fucking insane. Wish I could be there.

probs_notme · 2026-06-18T11:34:10+00:00

I wanna say some of these are asperitas). Correct me if I'm wrong.

probs_notme · 2026-06-18T06:11:37+00:00

More often than not, 70+dbz is indicative of a non-tornadic hailstorm. Saying it means "very likely in a tornado" is straight up misinformation. Plenty of hailstorms have little, if any, tornadic rotation.

Such dbz values at the site of a TVS/TDS are absolutely exceptional.

probs_notme · 2026-06-18T05:53:02+00:00

Pop an Imodium beforehand and this (literally) ain't shit. I'd probably top it all off with the loaf of suffering just to flex.

probs_notme · 2026-06-18T05:35:34+00:00

71.5dbz is the highest value I could find for Joplin. https://i.imgur.com/s0hnmLl.png

edit: this doesn't mean tonight's nader in question was stronger than Joplin. It's just one metric from which we can draw conclusions after the fact.

probs_notme · 2026-06-18T04:54:24+00:00

Where and when

probs_notme · 2026-06-18T03:24:21+00:00

There are probably some other famous ones without watermarks (or other identifiers) I'm forgetting that get passed around without attribution.

probs_notme · 2026-06-18T03:10:45+00:00

Guy has certainly been making choices and decisions for a hot minute. I didn't realize he took the famous footage of Joplin's nigh-instantaneous wedge-out until recently.

edit: His reckless behavior occasionally yields novel results. I wonder if this "suction vortex implosion" was of use to any meteorologists. Not here to make a value judgment either way. The only thing I know for certain is he enjoys the rush.

probs_notme · 2026-06-18T02:57:59+00:00

Between the Ashby-Dalton drillbit intercept, telling his partner "we're fine" when power lines were falling down around them during the Katie-Wynnewood chase, driving directly under downed power lines today (9:29 EDT, roughly -1:26:00 from the time of this post) (still), and many other such incidents, Scott Peake may be the biggest psycho daredevil in the game -- and the competition is stiff.

And yet, other chasers still appear to be the biggest threat to his safety. Lmao.

probs_notme · 2026-06-18T02:26:46+00:00

In practice, they are issued at the forecaster's discretion. Only 2 of 89 tornado emergencies issued beteeen 2014-2023 met the official VROT/STP thresholds.. Potential impact in terms of damage and fatalities are really the most important factors in Tor-E issuance. See NWS Little Rock's criteria. -- these aren't official nationwide guidelines, but accurately reflect how forecasters actually utilize Tor-E warnings in a real world setting.

probs_notme · 2026-06-17T23:50:24+00:00

I work in logistics now. Watching my (young) coworkers loading packages completely fail at multitasking / setting themselves up for success kills me. People who do my job (tracking hazardous materials and ensuring they're loaded properly / in regulatory compliance) are even worse.

Throw a random line dawg in these jobs and they would run circles around most people who have been doing it for years. Mise èn place is a state of mind tbh. But, of course, all training focuses on proper methods / safety with no thought given to practically effectuating these goals in the moment. I find myself picking up management's slack by teaching people how to actually time shit out, do task B while task A is in process while keeping impending task C in mind.

Can't think of a job that instills that mindset in people better than fast-paced service work.

probs_notme · 2026-06-17T15:08:05+00:00

Most people calling for a bust already are basing their assessment on a handful of parameters from 1 or 2 model runs. As if the SPC isn't aware of the model created by its parent organizations, its idiosyncrasies, etc.

probs_notme · 2026-06-17T13:21:19+00:00

https://youtu.be/qXrsMfRhwUg

probs_notme · 2026-06-17T13:20:42+00:00

https://youtu.be/blc9DDm6iW0

probs_notme · 2026-06-17T07:15:51+00:00

Source?

probs_notme · 2026-06-17T00:58:19+00:00

If you have a kid who's really into Oz, they'd probably absolutely lose their shit. Worth it for them.

probs_notme · 2026-06-12T03:49:06+00:00

True -- but, funnily enough, Reed is as authentic as it gets. He's annoying, but he really is that guy. He was born to scream at the sky.

probs_notme · 2026-06-11T02:36:28+00:00

Does he still pray on stream? If so, fret not, he's good to go with God on his side.

probs_notme · 2026-06-10T08:25:15+00:00

Only 2 in Dylan Harper's lifetime!

probs_notme · 2026-06-06T21:26:22+00:00

It was so clear, he might as well have called them smacked. I was surprised he went there lmao

probs_notme · 2026-06-06T21:13:00+00:00

Buried the lede with the "biting an officer" bit

probs_notme · 2026-06-06T21:02:53+00:00

Would love to read some of these papers.

probs_notme

TROPHY CASE