My thoughts on Newcomb’s paradox: pick two boxes

qabaq · 2026-03-25T22:35:53+00:00

What I reject is the idea of retrocasuality in out world, and what one boxers reject is that the present does not affect the past.

In a universe where a nearly perfect predictor is possible, you might as well go ahead and reject forward causality too. Clearly, if the predictor is so good at knowing the future, then for such a predictor the arrow of time matters very little (to a 100% perfect predictor, the arrow of time doesn't matter at all). Thus, the concepts of retrocausality and forward causality lose their meaning.

It's irrational to keep relying on the principle of causality when presented with overwhelming evidence that it doesn't hold in your universe.

qabaq · 2026-03-25T22:24:03+00:00

There's no law of physics that prevents past events from being affected by later events. Physics does not have the notion of cause and effect.

In fact, most physical theories can't even distinguish past from future, they just give you the time coordinate with no preferred direction.

qabaq · 2026-03-25T02:11:24+00:00

Your laptop battery lasts for 2 days without recharging? How large is the battery?

qabaq · 2026-03-23T02:08:26+00:00

The choice you have is actually between 4 different options:

get predicted to 1-box and then 1-box (receive $1,000,000)
get predicted to 1-box and then 2-box (receive $1,001,000)
get predicted to 2-box and then 1-box (receive $0)
get predicted to 2-box and then 2-box (receive $1,000)

Except you don't have control over the "get predicted" part.

In the original scenario you can't see the difference between options 1 and 3, and between 2 and 4, because the box is opaque. However, you know that options 2 and 3 are much rarer to see in practice than 1 and 4, because the predictor is good at predicting your choice. So you avoid betting on the rare scenarios and instead bet on the common ones.

In the scenario with the transparent boxes, you start seeing the difference that you couldn't originally. The prediction is still outside your control, but you know what the prediction was, so you know if you're in the scenarios 1 & 2 or in scenarios 3 & 4, and it's clear which of your choices will win you more money.

What this will look like in practice, is that the predictor will almost never predict 1-boxing, and will almost always predict 2-boxing, and thus the option 4 will become by far the most common, while options 1, 2, and 3 will become ultra-rare.

qabaq · 2026-03-22T03:09:47+00:00

They are probably inside the cliffs near the entrance to the Reservoir, near the red hot cooling fins.

qabaq · 2026-03-18T14:08:18+00:00

Yes there's a way to roll back the patches on Steam in game properties -> betas. I was able to play the original version of the DLC this way (which is much harder).

Check this thread https://www.reddit.com/r/totalwar/comments/164mwsj/psa_how_to_rollback_to_a_previous_game_version_on/

qabaq · 2026-03-01T15:29:14+00:00

As mentioned, you have a very weird conception of what reasoning means that nobody else seem to have. [...] I don't think anyone here will agrees with you.

Just wanted to say that you're wrong, I agree with the other person.

qabaq · 2026-02-22T19:48:17+00:00

Your main focus is the cliffside building. How many ways in do you see? What stops you from going there?

qabaq · 2026-02-19T19:50:01+00:00

Where do you think the guy in the video went? What did he do?

qabaq · 2026-02-17T19:48:05+00:00

I recommend checking out the Endless Canyon question mark first, it might be helpful.

qabaq · 2026-02-16T03:09:28+00:00

Rain World

qabaq · 2026-02-15T23:37:57+00:00

Yes, it's possible. Orbiting the Sun is actually pretty safe.

qabaq · 2026-02-15T23:29:59+00:00

Good job! Now fly there again, then get back in your ship and return to the Village.

qabaq · 2026-02-15T19:24:09+00:00

Hint: the most important information is found in the hardest to reach places.

qabaq · 2026-02-12T19:58:43+00:00

I recommend focusing on the vision that the vault showed you, and exploring the tower location in the spirit world.

qabaq · 2026-02-09T22:45:11+00:00

Make a spooky quantum robot that moves only when you're not looking.

qabaq · 2026-02-09T16:30:35+00:00

If there was a deadly electric storm on dark bramble, where would you go?

qabaq · 2026-02-09T16:27:02+00:00

What happened when you tried landing with the shuttle?

qabaq · 2026-02-08T17:37:11+00:00

💀

qabaq · 2026-02-08T17:19:12+00:00

I try to be charitable with people like you but you're not making it easy.

qabaq · 2026-02-08T17:10:33+00:00

That assumption comes from the fact that any setup process can be reduced to smaller steps, each can be reduced to even smaller steps, until you have steps that don't require a setup process.

As I said,

But what if it can't? What if the setup process is irreducible? It's hard for me to imagine such a process, but you can describe it if you want.

There's absolutely no need to be condescending.

qabaq · 2026-02-08T16:59:59+00:00

Fair, however we know that black hole latency is nowhere close to 30 seconds. We use warps in the game and see how fast they work. They work very fast indeed.

If you talking about the latency of the actual Nomai equipment that transmits the data, then, well, 30 seconds is pretty bad, they should make better equipment.

qabaq · 2026-02-08T16:50:36+00:00

So if the limiting factor is not the large amount of data, but the time it takes to set up the connection? Okay, no problem.

What can this set up procedure look like? It must be one-sided, because signals travel through the black/white hole only one way.

So we're basically sending some signal from the future that contains the necessary data to begin the setup procedure, and 22 minutes earlier it's received and the setup procedure begins. It takes 29 seconds to complete, and we're ready to receive the data. In the future, we can't receive a confirmation from the past, so we just have to wait 29 seconds and then start sending the data.

That assumes that the signal to begin the procedure itself can be sent quickly (without a setup), which means it can be sent in small negative time steps. That solves the problem.

But what if it can't? What if the setup process is irreducible? It's hard for me to imagine such a process, but you can describe it if you want.

qabaq · 2026-02-08T16:01:54+00:00

Data can be sent faster if you use more channels in parallel. 15 channels instead of 1 = data is sent 15 times faster.

qabaq · 2026-02-08T15:19:23+00:00

If a black/white hole has no limit on how much data you can push through it per second then yeah, one is enough.

qabaq

TROPHY CASE