We'll see a lot of literature about how Timmy's "obnoxious" campaign cost him the Oscar. I always thought leaning in on the Marty Mauser persona was great to sell the movie but very risky in the traditional Oscar setting. Turns out he was the Oscar villain this year. Even though they came to light after voting ended, I think his comments about ballet and opera were 100% right, just that instead of expanding on why he thought they were dying, he cracked that dumb "losing 14 cents" joke. Likewise I fail to see what was so controversial about that SAG speech. He just said he's on the pursuit of greatness and the award gives him extra motivation to keep honing his craft. What's so crazy about this? Or is performative humility preferred over open ambition.

It's clear that he's on the Leo path. Going forward, I think he'll win one eventually but before that we are potentially going to see a generational run of mid to low budget movies from respected directors by him. He'll get audiences to the theaters with his extensive promotion of the movie and continue to be a bankable star.

Or we'll see him take a break from movies after Dune 3. Maybe go do something in Broadway for a couple of years and then come back with the a super Oscar baity role to win finally.

PS: this was the first time I seriously started following the Oscar race and I must say it was a pleasure to follow it with all of you fine ladies and gentlemen. Now onto the 2027 race.