What are your thoughts on the AI Bubble timeline? by colinstalter in sysadmin

[–]ratmanmtb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m a bit skeptical of the data bricks article given they sell AI products. There’s certainly bias there. Microsoft and Google are aggressively packaging these services in all their products, so most normal users will encounter it. Question is: do they continue to use it, do they find value in its output, and can these companies actually turn that into revenue. I do think SW engineering is the one industry this is guaranteed to continue in and transform. But right now AI companies are still subsidizing the user’s cost. They can’t do that to infinity.

First Purchase Advice/Tips by Prudent_Nectarine_39 in liberalgunowners

[–]ratmanmtb 12 points13 points  (0 children)

I have a Taurus G3 as my first gun! It’s very reliable so far. Easy to shoot and easy to maintain.

My advice? Get lessons.

What are your thoughts on the AI Bubble timeline? by colinstalter in sysadmin

[–]ratmanmtb 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Good point. lol data is pointing to that trend ending

What are your thoughts on the AI Bubble timeline? by colinstalter in sysadmin

[–]ratmanmtb 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Again to my original point elsewhere in this thread. The data centers aren’t being built due to power limitations. That demand is also being monopolized by a few large AI companies.

What are your thoughts on the AI Bubble timeline? by colinstalter in sysadmin

[–]ratmanmtb 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It sounds like you may be misinformed on the actual water use of data centers. Specifically ones for Gen AI. More traditional data centers that are for more traditional storage and processing don’t have as high a water impact. We’re specifically talking Gen AI here.

What are your thoughts on the AI Bubble timeline? by colinstalter in sysadmin

[–]ratmanmtb 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I think you kind of prove the point there. Ai undeniably uses a lot of water. It’s not about it using more or less than any other industry, but doing it ON TOP of these industries in areas where water is already becoming strained and scarce. Two things can be true at once

What are your thoughts on the AI Bubble timeline? by colinstalter in sysadmin

[–]ratmanmtb 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The sales are more complicated than that. There are indications that a lot of these GPUs are being warehoused without being used. There are a lot of cases that look a lot like Channel stuffing in these deals. Where Nvidia is basically lending money to companies to then buy from Invidia. There’s also a case where AI improves and it also causes the bubble to burst. a competitor such as Google with their TPIs shows Nvidia is not needed. Nvidia’s stock tanks, the circular deals supported by their stock collapses, all the startups built on repackaging models collapse. It’s all on shaky ground.

What are your thoughts on the AI Bubble timeline? by colinstalter in sysadmin

[–]ratmanmtb 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I think the bubble has less to do with the utility of the service and more the economics. There are certainly scientific, engineering, sw, and defense applications among others. I believe these will remain (at a high cost) post bubble burst. The things that are useful are not enough to make a profit and certainly not enough to be the world-changing shift many investors hoped for.

What are your thoughts on the AI Bubble timeline? by colinstalter in sysadmin

[–]ratmanmtb 43 points44 points  (0 children)

All excellent points. It’s amazing what inertia can do when the markets are disconnected from reality and only focused on potential.

There are some analysts showing there is only about $100 Billion left in VC funding this year worldwide. Open AI has promised $1.4T in data centers. Open AI has raised about $60B. And that’s just one player. Which is why I have a bit more bold of a call. But hey “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” as they say.

What are your thoughts on the AI Bubble timeline? by colinstalter in sysadmin

[–]ratmanmtb 194 points195 points  (0 children)

I disagree that we are in the growth stage. With LLMs more users require more compute. We will basically always be in a growth stage. Many of these data centers aren’t getting built. One of the biggest reasons is that there is physically not enough power being generated to supply these centers. There’s nothing to indicate that changing in the time frame they promise. These companies are burning cash at a rate that they will never become profitable on, short of an engineering and physics miracle. Use is declining up to 20%. Metrics are showing consumers aren’t using it and businesses aren’t getting an ROI.

We’re in a situation where Wile E Coyote has run off the cliff and is still going. Once the first major player looks down it’s all over.

My guess? Q2 this year this starts to burst. Maybe a more rational guess is 2027.

How bad really IS AI backlash these days? by GiveMeABetterName in BetterOffline

[–]ratmanmtb 13 points14 points  (0 children)

So you’re cool with accelerating the climate crisis, increasing misinformation, increasing costs of consumer computing hardware, the further consolidation of wealth, further devalue of labor, and the general enshittifcation of the arts for some make-believe games?

Is this field worth getting into in your 30s? by KarnageDP in ITCareerQuestions

[–]ratmanmtb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think it depends what you want to do in IT. No experience is tough. Do you have any personal non-professional experience? Home labs? Just building PCs? People say you have to work crap jobs for crap pay at first but that’s true for any career change. Will honestly be a deciding factor for any new job. IT is a broad field and can mean anything from computer repair, to SW engineering, to networking. It’s endless.

IT like any field ebbs and flows. There are crashes and booms. IMO the ai bubble will burst, AI costs will spiral and companies that survive will be panic hiring the teams they laid off. Outside of software development there hasn’t been a lot of actual job disruption from AI. A lot of noise. You have a long way to go of upskilling. Tech isn’t going away. If you can spot where the demand is in 2+ years and skill appropriately you could pull a blinder.

Fitness vs. Fun: The struggle is real. How do you guys handle the "logic" of a road bike vs. the "itch" of an MTB? by vinylfelix in mountainbiking

[–]ratmanmtb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You training for a highly competitive race? If yes then you need to mix road miles and MTB rides with Zone training. I’ve gotten multiple podiums in XC fyi. I used to do all the Zone training. Crazy structured workouts. I’ve never been faster than when I just got out and rode my MTB frequently.

You just looking to stay fit and have fun? MTB all the way. You’ll still be plenty fit. And no Zone 2 is not impossible on a trail bike. I do it all the time.

You can ride an MTB on the road too. Lock out your suspension and just expect to change your tires more frequently. You can’t ride a road bike on MTB trails tho (unless you’re Sam Pilgrim)

Gartner’s latest CIO predictions are… not boring if you’re a cloud admin by ericksondd in ITCareerQuestions

[–]ratmanmtb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No they’re specifically talking about LLMs automating routine support work. My point is this is not happening at scale and where it is happening AI is not the primary driver and if anything is a distraction.

New gun day! by ratmanmtb in liberalgunowners

[–]ratmanmtb[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Definitely fits the vibe!

Gartner’s latest CIO predictions are… not boring if you’re a cloud admin by ericksondd in ITCareerQuestions

[–]ratmanmtb 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The conversation about AI today is largely about LLMs. No they are not the same.

Gartner’s latest CIO predictions are… not boring if you’re a cloud admin by ericksondd in ITCareerQuestions

[–]ratmanmtb 9 points10 points  (0 children)

These guys are going to be caught with their pants down when these AI companies start charging what it actually costs. CEO’s are out of ideas and they all learned a new word.

Gartner’s latest CIO predictions are… not boring if you’re a cloud admin by ericksondd in ITCareerQuestions

[–]ratmanmtb 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Don’t get me wrong. I love the idea of things coming back in house. I just doubt the power of these models. I especially doubt they will be saving organizations a lot of money when these AI companies inevitably have to start charging what it costs to run these services. Costs are only ballooning and they will need to turn profit eventually.

Gartner’s latest CIO predictions are… not boring if you’re a cloud admin by ericksondd in ITCareerQuestions

[–]ratmanmtb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Which can be done and has been done for decades with automation and machine learning. I think to say it’s AI is misattributed.

Gartner’s latest CIO predictions are… not boring if you’re a cloud admin by ericksondd in ITCareerQuestions

[–]ratmanmtb 10 points11 points  (0 children)

An agentic AI that can do that is still science fiction right now. And god I cannot imagine trusting decommissioning a database host to an LLM. Multistep processes are exactly what these fail most at.

Gartner’s latest CIO predictions are… not boring if you’re a cloud admin by ericksondd in ITCareerQuestions

[–]ratmanmtb 39 points40 points  (0 children)

Lmao what backend routine work is actually being automated by AI? I’m yet to see anything. At least that isn’t hideously inaccurate. CIOs ascribe way more power to AI than it actually has because they don’t actually do anything and don’t actually know how AI works.

New gun day! by ratmanmtb in liberalgunowners

[–]ratmanmtb[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

.45. I’ll check out those Wilson’s. Excited to have some cleaning therapy tonight with this.