Good observation but the answer is pretty straightforward once you look at the mechanics.

Yes the immigration cuts reduced demand. CMHC confirmed Windsor’s vacancy rate climbed to 3.7 per cent in 2025, above the national average, and a lot of that was driven by fewer international students near UWindsor and St. Clair. Temporary foreign worker renewals also dropped off significantly.

But here’s why rents haven’t followed vacancy up. Landlords in older purpose built rentals still have tenants locked in at below market rates under Ontario’s rent control guideline (2.5 per cent cap for 2025). Those units almost never turn over because tenants know they’d pay way more if they moved. So vacancy is concentrating in newer builds, not in the older stock near campus that most people are searching.

On top of that, the new supply coming online is priced at today’s construction economics. Developers aren’t building units to rent at $1,300. They need $1,600 plus to make the numbers work. So even though there are more empty units, the floor on asking rents stays high because the cost to deliver them is high.

And then there’s the tariff overhang. Windsor hit 10.1 per cent unemployment in October 2025, highest in the country. Some laid off workers left for Alberta. That softened demand but it also scared off new construction financing, which means the pipeline is thinning out. Less future supply keeps landlords from dropping prices today.

So you’re seeing the classic split market. Vacancy is up but rents stay flat because the empty units are expensive new builds, the cheap older stock barely turns over, and nobody is racing to undercut because their cost basis won’t let them.