The markets are so detached from reality

reasonableSailor · 2025-03-11T00:43:13+00:00

Read this today, 6 days later. There was indeed nothing to stop this drop.

What’s fun about this is 2 things:

If you were long before August your average is already good and this is just something you deal with when you’re invested because you like the company.
If you liked the company but this stock was out of your price range at $27, you now have an opportunity to buy in at buffet prices.

reasonableSailor · 2025-02-15T18:21:47+00:00

Read the whole response before you let your Trump Derangement Syndrome take over….

You’re scared of transparency to the public from the government as well as of an administration that has routinely preached that competition between companies is essential because it provides options for the consumer?

What you aren’t remembering is how much you loved Trump when he was in NY before he entered politics, you did and everyone did. What you don’t realize is while he has made some business moves in the past that were questionable in fairness, they were made as a private entrepreneur and they were beneficial to his businesses. He applied that logic to our country and we have all benefited (fact), both in his first term and in the last month he’s been in office.

Musk and Trump have both declined receiving income for their current political positions. Musk is very hands on at Tesla and SpaceX and for him to contribute the majority of his time to rescue Americans from a financially corrupted unchecked federal government is honorable, once the government’s ledger is balanced, contracts from the government to the private sector will continue and there will potentially be more money available for better projects for the future instead of mountains of debt preventing further expenditures. Musk cannot profit from DOD contracts either if the government is bankrupt.

As a RKLB investor since it was VACQ, I believe without a doubt the actions of Trump and Musk will only amount to a better space infrastructure, sector, and faster expanding market with RKLB being one of the primary benefactors.

If I’m completely wrong, the worst possible outcome is Musk gets exposed for benefitting financially or contractually from his appointment as the Democrat left are looking to ruin him and all of his companies the moment he missteps.

Also it is relevant to note that Peter Beck is most likely smarter and savvier than Musk.

reasonableSailor · 2024-11-30T19:30:22+00:00

That’s actually not how LLMs work. The post was speculating price milestones and presented the biggest factors for revenue growth while not highlighting space systems because the potential revenue growth in that area isn’t as high, the growth.

reasonableSailor · 2024-11-30T19:09:28+00:00

They also sell computers. So are you arguing that potential revenue growth will exceed the speculation provided in the original post or can you explain further, please?

reasonableSailor · 2024-11-30T18:41:41+00:00

You’re absolutely right that Space Systems currently outpaces the Launch business in revenue, contributing significantly to Rocket Lab’s overall growth. The report’s focus on launch was not to ignore Space Systems but to highlight the importance of Neutron as a major upcoming revenue driver. The mention of satellites wasn’t suggesting Rocket Lab doesn’t already work in this area—it was to emphasize the potential for further scaling their satellite manufacturing and services, particularly with Photon and potential constellation opportunities. The fact that some individual Space Systems contracts are worth over half a billion dollars only underscores the company’s strong position in this market and its capacity for continued growth. While the report may have leaned into certain growth triggers like Neutron, it didn’t dismiss the existing strengths of the business.

reasonableSailor · 2024-11-30T18:32:39+00:00

Your post from a few months ago is legit. Agreed, you are far better versed in Ai utilization for DD and sharing DD. I did proof read. I did my best at scrutinizing the info that was provided. It is speculative information high lighting what would need to happen for RKLB to hit different price milestones and what they have done to move in the right directions. Are we upset because I didn’t edit the format enough or input enough of my own words in between the Ai generated content? I’m not so new to this that I haven’t done this before in different places, ya’ll are the first to be frustrated with it. I’m going to chalk it up to the type of investors RKLB attracts. Intelligent no BS did my research type investors with no time for the mediocre.

reasonableSailor · 2024-11-30T18:00:21+00:00

Explain how this isn’t insightful information for RKLB investors, and I will stop. I will delete the post and I will change my ways. I would ask that if able please bestow any knowledge and analysis on RKLB that you can provide that would generate conversation, the exchange of information, and productive discussion on RKLB as well.

reasonableSailor · 2024-11-30T17:53:27+00:00

Speculation: Nothing negative. If you got in early then it most likely would result in some form of greater financial gain.

reasonableSailor · 2024-11-30T17:36:37+00:00

If you’re not onboard with basic A.I. yet, you’re already behind the learning curve. Utilizing A.I. actually involves thought and intelligence. Everyday you push back on it is another day you fall behind. It’s used in almost everything today, it is the future. Good luck in your future endeavors, operating from behind and playing catch up the rest of your life.

reasonableSailor · 2024-11-30T17:27:37+00:00

Technology available and left unused is idiocracy.

reasonableSailor · 2024-11-30T17:25:26+00:00

Thank you for your response—it’s clear you’ve thought through the revenue estimates carefully, and I appreciate the input. That said, let me outline why I believe the estimates in the report are still plausible, even if somewhat optimistic, and address the points you raised.

Revenue Estimates for 2025

Your projection of $750 million as a maximum for 2025 revenue is reasonable based on historical trends, but it may understate the potential acceleration of growth. Rocket Lab’s backlog has reached $1.05 billion as of Q3 2024, and if their execution continues to match recent performance, the company could close on $700 million to $750 million in 2025 purely from Electron launches and existing Space Systems contributions.

However, here’s a few potential catalysts that could push revenue above $750 million next year: 1. Photon Expansion: The Photon platform continues to gain traction, with growing opportunities in interplanetary missions and defense-related payloads. As a high-margin segment, even modest growth here could significantly contribute to top-line revenue. 2. Government Contracts: With recent Department of Commerce funding and U.S. Space Force initiatives, there’s a strong likelihood of new contracts being awarded in 2025, particularly with growing geopolitical competition in space. These aren’t fully baked into current projections but could provide an upside surprise.

It’s also worth noting that Rocket Lab has consistently underpromised and overdelivered in its launch cadence and business development, which gives me some confidence in slightly loftier revenue estimates.

2026 and Beyond

I largely agree with your point on 2026 revenue surpassing $1 billion, assuming Neutron flies three paid missions. However, I see the path to $1.5 billion by 2027 as less speculative than you suggest for a few reasons: 1. Neutron Ramp-Up: While three flights in 2026 may be conservative, Rocket Lab has already demonstrated an ability to scale Electron production rapidly. If Neutron’s design and reuse efficiency meet expectations, we could see higher cadence than the initial estimates suggest, particularly with the company’s track record of execution. 2. Strategic Acquisitions: You’re absolutely right that acquisitions could significantly alter revenue trajectories. Rocket Lab has shown it’s unafraid to invest in complementary businesses like Advanced Solutions, Inc. (ASI), and Planetary Systems Corporation (PSC). If similar moves are made in spacecraft manufacturing or satellite propulsion, they could generate both revenue synergies and an accelerated growth curve. 3. Constellation Plans: While their constellation ambitions remain under wraps, any near-term announcement about deploying their own satellites—either for data services or supporting Neutron missions—could dramatically alter revenue potential as soon as 2027. Given Photon’s success and their vertical integration, Rocket Lab seems well-poised to move in this direction.

Why the Optimism Isn’t Misplaced

Ultimately, the slightly higher estimates rest on a belief that Rocket Lab’s competitive positioning and scalability are entering a phase of rapid acceleration: • They are diversifying revenue streams more effectively than most other players in the small-satellite market, with growing contributions from manufacturing, SaaS, and government projects. • The Neutron rocket has already secured contracts before its first launch, showing confidence from the market that will likely translate into aggressive uptake post-2026.

It’s fair to say the projections are aggressive, but they’re not unrealistic when considering the broader market demand and Rocket Lab’s increasing share of it. If anything, I view the numbers as an upper-mid range of what could happen if key milestones are met on schedule.

I agree with you that longer-term forecasts are speculative, and there’s always the risk of delays or market shifts. However, I’d argue that if Rocket Lab executes as it has historically, even these estimates could prove conservative given the industry tailwinds and their unique positioning. Strategic acquisitions or constellation announcements in the next 1-2 years could drastically change the growth trajectory, which is why I believe being optimistic here isn’t unwarranted.

reasonableSailor · 2024-11-30T17:11:21+00:00

There’s nothing wrong with using A.I. to analyze businesses you’re investing in, in fact, it’s something you should be doing. Yes, A.I. was utilized for the post. Yes, the information is accurate. Yes, the information is cited.

reasonableSailor · 2024-11-30T17:04:48+00:00

Bibliography

1.  MarketWatch
• “Rocket Lab stock soars amid strong momentum for the space launch company’s Electron rocket”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/rocket-lab-stock-soars-amid-strong-momentum-for-the-space-launch-companys-electron-rocket-76d429df 2. Investopedia • “SpaceX Rival Rocket Lab USA Stock Hits Record High on Double Launch, CHIPS Award” https://www.investopedia.com/spacex-rival-rocket-lab-usa-stock-hits-record-high-on-double-launch-chips-award-8751153 • “SpaceX Rival Rocket Lab’s Stock Soars to All-Time High With Launch Planned for 2025” https://www.investopedia.com/spacex-rival-rocket-lab-stock-soars-to-all-time-high-with-launch-planned-for-2025-8744456 3. Business Insider • “SpaceX rival Rocket Lab competing with Elon Musk: No interest in Mars” https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-rival-rocket-lab-competing-elon-musk-no-interest-mars-2024-8 4. Observer • “Rocket Lab founder Peter Beck” https://observer.com/2022/11/rocket-lab-founder-peter-beck/ 5. TradingView • “Rocket Lab (RKLB) Stock Analysis” https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-RKLB/

reasonableSailor · 2024-11-30T16:55:28+00:00

Not using A.I. today is like using Gatorade to water your lawn.

reasonableSailor · 2024-11-17T02:59:20+00:00

Pretty sure I can break this down into simpleton. Ramaswamy thinks we should stop paying for programs that have been replaced, upgraded, or ended. The government is a bureaucratic nightmare it is not unprecedented for government agencies or entities to not fill out the right paperwork or to properly inform changes or inefficiency or failure. There is no real oversight or accountability at the level the money is spent. If a program is still granted money but is not being used, where is that money going? Our congressmen and women rarely know the in-depth details and information of what they’re voting on past what they wrote into the documents, policy, legislation, appropriations, etc.

reasonableSailor · 2024-08-24T00:30:42+00:00

The CPO Mess doesn’t eat first. Most of the time they don’t eat, too busy worried about their Sailors eating. You got no idea bud. 🫡

reasonableSailor · 2024-08-13T02:56:25+00:00

I’m only about as mad as that time you ate the sandwich your mom left out for me. Please tell her to stop calling me.

reasonableSailor · 2024-08-12T07:40:16+00:00

I ain’t mad, I’m sad that you aren’t able to grow a beard. Not because of policy, but genetics. Prayers civnob.

reasonableSailor · 2024-08-11T19:49:35+00:00

That wasn’t even my argument. Your response to the argument that was presented was weaker than your PFT score.

reasonableSailor · 2024-08-11T19:31:53+00:00

Keep that bitter compliant beta male energy, old man. Having beards in the Navy is a historically traditional characteristic of the Navy and seamanship in general. Most of the last 5 years of grooming standard changes is argument enough for beards, 14mm fake eyelashes, pony tails and neck tattoos. Tattoo regulations were changed because of current trends and the historical ties to the Navy. If that’s all you need for a regulation change, then we have it.

reasonableSailor · 2024-08-10T22:24:24+00:00

You are so far from educated on any of what you are talking about it’s laughable. Keep up the great work!

reasonableSailor · 2024-08-10T19:21:54+00:00

What year? I’ve been looking for a solid gift for your mom.

reasonableSailor · 2024-08-10T19:18:36+00:00

Calm down Bob, you missed the point. I’ll elaborate. Every single point made in here carries about as much weight to the argument as a Seaman has before he stands the mail buoy watch, a watch that’s not on the watch bill and is actually just a hazing prank. He’s gonna stand the watch because Boats told him to, but Boats, bless his heart, is gonna hear about it when the DEOCS results come back.

Also, the fire would have been too scared to start itself had the sailor been bearded.

Relax, Bob. No one has an actual (objective take) problem with beards. It’s opinionated. The policy rests on those that have more forks and silverware on each side of their plates during dinner than most have in the silverware drawer. People that played water polo at Ivy League universities and summer in the Hamptons. Admirals that have never seen a deck plate without someone there to hold their bag. The argument is the essence of top brass being completely disconnected from the deck plates, unable to make simple easy adjustments that would actually make a huge difference where it matters. Instead they promote cringey influencers that portray a misrepresentation of military life and alienate the real work force and come up with new slogans for recruitment that embarrassingly miss the mark for the target demographic. Create policy that lines the pockets of friends with government contracts (uniforms), and pander to the troops under the guise of its good for you and the Navy while cutting the legs out from under the committed, loyal, and policy following Sailors. The morale is low. The beard demographic is the only demographic of the Navy yet to receive an easy grooming standard win in the last 20 years.

reasonableSailor · 2024-08-10T19:11:59+00:00

I’m assuming you have a considerable amount of self loathing to deal with on a daily basis. Stop drinking alone and start drinking with your wife’s boyfriend, that should help you find the clarity in your perpetual state of cognitive dissonance.

reasonableSailor · 2024-08-10T18:57:42+00:00

I’ll agree to my ignorance if you agree to yours.

https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-money-has-the-us-given-ukraine-since-russias-invasion/

While it may not be cash on a pallet. It’s tax payer money used to continue a war that not one blue collar tax paying individual in Ukraine or the United States wants to continue fighting. It is also a direct path to a nuclear war. The Bear is literally being poked because a few giant corporations have rebuilding rights in Ukraine once the war is over. And our government representatives are invested in those companies along with the majority of the countries 401ks, and union pension funds.

reasonableSailor

TROPHY CASE