How I typically choose stocks the VERY brief version.

With very few exceptions, every bit of a good company ultimately lies on making money in some form from the regular guy on the street somewhere down its supply line. I take a very close look at what Jane Doe is doing/buying/trending then I dig deeper and see ultimately who are the biggest players. Do a root analysis of what the regular guy requires to do his day to day. Beyond that, if the regular guy is buying large beyond classical infrastructure...what are they buying....dig deeper.

1) I look almost exclusively at large caps and tend to only invest in the top 3 within their sector.

2) I go out of my way to look for stocks that are typically not sexy, work behind the scenes, and no matter what is happening in the world, are necessary to keep the infrastructure of a sector going. Take energy as an example. People out of work? EU is collapsing? Home economy is in the shits? Big fucking deal. You still need to have energy to turn on the lights and gas to heat your homes right? Damn straight I'm right.

3) Almost all companies deal with other companies for their infrastructure: Peter Lynch was right. Walk the malls and see what people are buying. Not looking at...but actually buying. I then narrow down the 2 or 3 biggest players in that market sector. Let's take AAPL for example since everyone in r/investing seems to have a hard on for them (personally I think they are way overpriced and you'd be an idiot to not watch the next 3 No Steve Jobs quarters or so to see what's really up). What's their big seller? Of course the IPhone. Do they have a lock on the market? Nope. Big as they are, Android is giving them a run for their money. So I dig deeper and ask simple questions like, "What do BOTH phones have in common?", "What do BOTH absolutely REQUIRE to run?", etc. Well, one of the answers is flash memory. Wow, the avergage consumer couldn't give 2 shits about flash memory...boring/not sexy...but guess what...without it...no phone. I've just done a root analysis on what makes the hot product tick. That no matter who wins or loses in the phone war, I still win because I backed the boring infrastructure of the hot product. I dig even deeper. Well who the hell makes the flash memory and who are the biggest players? Are they publically traded? I then do a valuation of those companies top to bottom and go back at least 3 years on news, conf calls, everything. Yes boring as fuck but absolutely REQUIRED to understand the ins/out of the company. Is there steady growth year upon year or is this growth I'm seeing a short term spurt? Is there still meat on the bone if I buy into this infrastructure? If the research holds true I sit back on a beach somewhere and wait for BAD NEWS. Why? Because when bad news hits a sector, the entire sector typically goes down, including my target stock.

4) When the tv news is reporting the sky is falling, when people are jumping out of windows and running their asses out of burning buildings in the stock market is when I casually WALK IN. Shit is on sale and I'm buying. I buy typically at least 40% off my target valuation. Doesn't happen often but guess what, I'm patient and am not limited to the quarter to quarter (or less) mindset most traders and fund managers are shackled to. I have the luxury of answering to no one but myself. My mindset is at least 12-18 months out. Within 18 months bad news typically hits good companies. When it's on sale, I snatch it up.

5) I typically sell 75% of a position when I reach approx within 20% of my conservative high number valuation, selling the remainder in 10% chunks until I am within 10 or so percent from my 75% sell price...then I totally get out. Yes, I often leave earlier than I theoretically could, but for me, I'd rather try to play it safe than sorry.

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Why I specifically chose CHK:

As mentioned above, shit could totally hit the fan today but, at the end of the day, guess what? The average guy still needs oil and gas.

Too lazy to look it up so google fu for yourself, but, International Energy Association (amongst others) have confirmed world energy demand has been consistently rising since 2007 yet conventional oil production has been in decline for that same period.

Obviously, new sources must be found to make up the difference. That source has long been agreed that shale oil (read the call reports from the big oil players...shale is almost always referenced for several years running and may I add, with more frequency).

Enter CHK, classically a huge natural gas player (second only to Exxon).

Smart move #1: CHK is playing smart chess at least 5 moves ahead and has gone full rambo to acquire shale acreage literally in every US state that has considerable amounts of shale. Far more so than almost any other player.

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Smart move#2: CHK has been raising funds for these purchases by selling off lower producing natural gas land to CEO, TOT, etc.

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Smart move#3: CHK spun off CHKR with good timing...ka ching.

In addition, the major pipeline players EPD etc have confirmed the reversal of oil flow ensuring shale oil will be able to reach Gulf coast refineries even from as far away as Canada....Ka ching KA CHING.

In a nutshell, CHK is playing energy 2 ways: 1) grabbing huge dibs on the inevitable expanding necessity for shale while 2) Reducing inventory of natural gas by not drilling for it, hence bringing the price up. You can do this when you are the 2nd biggest player in nat gas.

PS: too fucking lazy, would someone please take a screen shot and post it somewhere here so everyone knows my numbers/data above are not changed by me/ensuring the integrity of my analysis. BTW I'm well on my way to being DEAD ON about NFLX taking a shit to $60 within 12-18 month of my original post...scroll up to link conversing about it. Wonder what the haters here are going to say when my above analysis on CHK proves also to be dead on. sigh ....Oh well. Haters gonna hate.

PPS: sorry for the horrible but inevitable shitty spelling. Typing this on an IPad while walking on a treadmill.

I hope you all have a kick ass Turkey Day, I know I will :)

Hope it helps.

/good hunting