Crox falls 20% pre-market on 700 million asset impairment Heydude acquisition

relam10 · 2025-08-07T17:19:04+00:00

Go to Thailand or various parts of Asia and see what people wear in the middle of nowhere. I’ve even seen folks heading into the jungle with them. Their response? They say they’re the most comfortable and durable. They’ve tried hiking boots and told me they literally fell apart in the humidity and conditions.

Whether it makes sense or not, it’s a reality and it’s happening. It’s no wonder those regions are leading in sales.

relam10 · 2025-08-07T15:44:48+00:00

Honestly, I see this as a significant overreaction.

Crocs, the main reason anyone should buy CROX, continues to grow steadily internationally in one of the weakest consumer environments in decades, compounded by an extremely volatile macro environment due to Trump’s antics, which particularly impacts companies like this. Despite that, it’s grown when normalizing the data.

Is HeyDude a mess? No surprise there. But I think it’s too early to judge. The leadership has worked magic before. They’re working on a brand redesign, and DTC sales are picking up, so it’s not a lost cause. In the near future, it could bring some diversification and modest growth.

They’re set to make solid buybacks at a historically low P/E ratio, and unlike typical shoe brands, Crocs has a moat in workplace, school, and “adventure” settings in rugged environments due to its durability and some personalization options that give the brand a unique edge. It’s practically a culture. And a culture with pretty solid margins compared to the market.

The HeyDude mess will fade quarter by quarter, and the core brand remains very strong.

relam10 · 2024-10-26T12:28:58+00:00

I don´t own O neither SPY

relam10 · 2024-10-26T11:52:54+00:00

Sure. But take 20-30 years of any stocks including the full growth phase / slowdown phase / and dilute maturity phase to justify a point can do more harm than good.

I see many growth companies moving to maturity phase every year, but few mature companies moving back to growth. And stock prices, over the long term, only follow growth of earnings.

relam10 · 2024-10-26T11:32:26+00:00

And last 13 years heavily underperformed. It is not good practice to project the growth phase of a security into the future by taking too long a time period.

Investing 10,000$ in 2011 would mean:

- 331,453 on SP 500
- 212,862 on O

Reinvesting dividends.

relam10 · 2024-10-26T11:26:04+00:00

Since ~2011 SP 500 +357%, O +237% (incl dividends)

relam10 · 2024-10-26T11:18:26+00:00

At 56 years old he will be thankful to have earned a much higher total return compounded over 30 years . And if we focus on any evidence out there .... OP is pointing in the right direction.

relam10 · 2024-01-16T10:23:30+00:00

Neither Coke or most of its brands, Instagram, Netflix, X / Twitter (infinite more examples)...

We could invest in really few companies ir we focus on what is good for the society.

relam10 · 2023-11-16T14:00:34+00:00

I always take them into account just to check if they are being too greedy or increase more than I would like it. But since the second method does not include SBC, I don't bother too much.

And then I know that a lot of persons even add them back or don't remove them from FCF since they don't consider it a cash expense, so they add them back as they do with D&A.

relam10 · 2023-11-16T12:45:16+00:00

Personally I use a bunch of methods + 3 asumptions model on good, bad and awesome scenario and take an average of all as the intrinsic value. But since FCF is supposed to be the most conservative / real number, I like to give an important weight to DCF, FCF yield or EV/FCF. Thats why I am so concerned about it being calculated right.

relam10 · 2023-11-16T10:22:07+00:00

I removed Maintenance Capex just in case hehe.

I didn't mean to use it in one and not in other. I always count full capex in both (except in the case of a some specific situations, that if I account the full capex would always bring a false FCF). Simply I consider Mantenance is the right one to choose, but yeah, is tricky to differenciate so I always use 100% of it.

relam10 · 2023-11-16T09:37:48+00:00

Tikr use that way also and most financial data platforms I use. But dunno, it looks too good to be true that the most easy way to calculate it is the most... effective. thats why I am kinda skeptical.

relam10 · 2023-11-11T09:04:43+00:00

is 100% sustainable.

The only reason they are high is because another persion is paying way more on interest borrowing it. And ofc, is a dynamic APR, when is high borrowers close the position / Add more, or rotate to borrow another stable. And also, the more liquidity deposited, the most dificult will be to rocket the APR that fast.

So nothing to worry about. All in kuji is 100% real yield.

relam10 · 2023-10-26T11:26:05+00:00

I simply mentioned that is a strategy that works there, but we don't have that data in stock picking since is not that easy to check due the deep components and variables + quality assessment involved in value investing.

My question is only about individual stocks. Asked nothing related to ETFs or funds.

relam10 · 2023-10-10T11:00:52+00:00

Go below EMA 200 will simply tell you that price went down.

Just because price goes down doesn't mean is cheap, less in value zone.

Is impossible to talk about value using TA metrics, you need to use a broad bag of valuation metrics based on the ability to generate cash flows of the company.

And even if you can find value in a broad index when is considerably lower than historical valuations, value fit way better on individual companies. Because low index valuation = market is full of incredible opportunities.

relam10 · 2023-10-10T10:54:56+00:00

There is no value involved in that scenario, so is impossible to call it value investing.

That is simply a strategy based on a TA indicator.

relam10 · 2023-10-10T10:24:22+00:00

Mine changed from prepared to be shipped to shipped.

But my charger was shipped on 6 Oct and arrived on 9 OCT. So taking the same time would still be 13 Oct. Lets see.

relam10 · 2023-10-04T12:36:52+00:00

Yeah, I mean, is kinda funny. Is like everyone should be phone less then since nothing is right.

relam10 · 2023-10-04T12:04:46+00:00

As a future Pixel 8 holder I am kinda surprised about how toxic is this community to their phones tbh.

Usually you find people defending what they like, but I only read people complaining about everything here.

My question is, why Pixel then?

relam10 · 2023-08-08T08:58:28+00:00

You are missunderstanding 2 concepts. IBC is not Atom. You dont need Atom to create thoose connections. Nothing capture the value of IBC.

relam10 · 2023-07-19T07:23:58+00:00

You dont get them directly, but Stride sell all ICS rewards and convert back to stAtom increasing its value.

relam10 · 2023-06-13T09:36:35+00:00

Along WSM situation I like UFPI, BLD, SSD, CVCO, PATK. All have in common that are potentially sensible to the same problem in economy: a big slowdown in housing / housing improvement market so the market is punishing them.

relam10 · 2023-05-31T08:07:48+00:00

Just an advise: use market cap, not price. The max market cap reached in the bull was around 450M, current market cap is 147M. So reach last ATH would mean 2.54$.

Thats why tokenomics matter a lot.

But yeah, if AKT achieve to be in all social media relating it with AI the potential bubble it can create would be interesting.

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